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BIENVENIDOS
WELCOME
M A S T E R O F
C E R E M O N Y
ALFREDO BABUNACHILA/Air Canada
W E L C O M E
B Y I A T A
PETER CERDÁREGIONAL VICE PRESIDENT, THE AMERICAS
IATA
V I D E O
T H E M A G I C O F
A V I A T I O N
ALEXANDRE DE JUNIACDIRECTOR GENERAL & CEO
IATA
W E L C O M E
T O C H I L E
GLORIA HUTTMINISTRA
MINISTERIO DE TRANSPORTES & COMUNICACIONESCHILE
T H E G O V E R N M E N T
P E R S P E C T I V E O N
A V I A T I O N
GLORIA HUTTMINISTER OF TRANSPORT, CHILE
GUILLERMO DIETRICHMINISTER OF TRANSPORT, ARGENTINA
VIVIANA ENCINACNN
G R O W I N G D E M A N D F O R
G L O B A L C O N N E C T I V I T Y
HOLGER PAULMANNSKY AIRLINE
FERNANDO POITEVINLATAM
MICHAEL KERKLOHMUNICH AIRPORT
EZEQUIEL BARRENECHEAAEROPUERTOS ANDINOS DEL PERU
ALVARO GONZALEZOPAIN
CARLOS OZORESICF
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E C O N O M I C
S T A T E O F T H E
A I R L I N E I N D U S T R Y
JAMES WILTSHIREHEAD OF POLICY ANALYSIS, IATA
Beneficios altos y estables a escala mundial
Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst and airline releases
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
% o
f re
ven
ue
Airline industry operating margin
Unadjusted margin
Margin adjusted to remove seasonality
Ciclo prolongado por macroeconomía favorable
Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IMF World Economic Outlook, IATA forecasts
-5-4-3-2-10123456789101112131415
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
% c
han
ge o
ver
pre
vio
us
year
% c
han
ge o
ver
pre
vio
us
year
Worldwide RPK growth and GDP growth
Worldwide RPK growth
World GDP growth
Ciclo actual ya lleva 8 años
Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA Statistics, IATA forecasts
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10
Worldwide RPK cycles, indexed to low point
1982-91
1991-01
2001-09
2009-
WE ARE HERE IN 2017
Tarifas subiendo, pero estables en términos reales
Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, PaxIS+, Datastream, IATA forecasts
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
US
cen
ts p
er t
on
ne
kilo
met
er
Yields including ancillaries & cargo revenues, nominal and inflation-adjusted
Yield
Inflation-adjusted yield
Subida de costos el principal desafío
Source: IATA Economics using data from The Airline Analyst, Platts, IATA forecasts
-20.0
-15.0
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
% c
han
ge o
ver
pre
vio
us
year
US$
per
bar
rel
Jet fuel price and growth in unit costs
Unit cost growth
Jet fuel price
Factor de carga por encima del umbral de rentabilidad
Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA Statistics, IATA forecasts
55
57
59
61
63
65
67
69
71
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
% A
TKs
Breakeven and achieved weight load factors
Load factor achieved
Breakeven load factor
Compañías sudando activos y mejorando márgenes
Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, McKinsey, The Airline Analyst, IATA forecasts
0.8
0.9
1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Cap
ital
pro
du
ctiv
ity,
rev
enu
e/in
vest
ed
cap
ital
, US$
EBIT
mar
gin
, % r
even
ue
Components of return on capital
Capital productivity
EBIT margin
Otro año de beneficios sólidos en 2018
Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, IATA estimates and forecasts
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
-6.0
-3.0
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
US
$ b
illio
n
% r
even
ue
s
Global commercial airline profitability
Net post-tax profits
EBIT margin
Diferencias entre regiones, pero cierta convergencia
Source: IATA Economics using data from ICAO, The Airline Analyst, IATA forecasts
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
N America Asia Pacific Europe L America Middle East Africa
% r
even
ues
EBIT margin by airline region of registration
2016 2017 2018
Pero amplia variación en beneficio por pasajero
www.iata.org/economics 26Source: IATA
18.10
2.42
8.86
6.07
-1.61
6.47
9.26
16.32
2.40
9.03
5.51
-0.83
1.15
8.45
16.67
3.00
9.99
5.52
-0.55
2.65
8.90
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Nth America Latin America Europe Asia Pacific Africa Middle East Industry
2016 2017(e) 2018(f)
US$ Profit per passenger (US$)
Mejorar la competitividad es clave
www.iata.org/economics 27Source: World Economic Forum
Reducir costos y mejorar infraestructura
www.iata.org/economics 28Source: World Economic Forum
Modelo de concesiones en América Latina es mejorable
www.iata.org/economics 29Source: ACI, FAA, IATA, ICAO
Consumidores son los grandes ganadores
Source: IATA Economics using data from SRS Analyser, ICAO, HIS. IATA forecasts
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
22000
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
US$
/RTK
in 2
01
4U
S$
Nu
mb
er o
f u
niq
ue
city
-pai
rs
Unique city-pairs and real transport costs
Unique city pairs
Real cost of air transport
Libertad comercial es mejor política pro-consumidor
Source: IATA Economics using data from IATA Statistics, UN, IATA forecasts
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Ave
rage
mo
nth
s b
efo
re n
ext
trip
Mill
ion
Passenger numbers and months before next trip for world population
Airline passengers
Number of months before average member of world population takes a flight
Resumen
• Industria en buen estado a nivel global, pero amplias variaciones regionales
• Amenazas incluyen:
• Macro – populismo, proteccionismo y guerras comerciales;
• Costos – falta de eficiencia en cadena de valor, impuestos;
• Regulación – leyes que socavan modelo de negocios, impiden la
innovación.
• América Latina ya tiene diversas desafíos para ganar en competitividad:
• Tasas e impuestos altos;
• Falta de capacidad en principales aeropuertos;
• Regulación contra-producente de protección al consumidor
Airline Industry Economics Advisory Workshop 2016 33
M A N A G I N G D I S R U P T I O N
I N T H E R E G I O N
ENRIQUE CUETOLATAM AIRLINES GROUP
PEDRO HEILBRONCOPA AIRLINES
GERMÁN EFROMOVICHAVIANCA HOLDINGS
MARIO DELL’ACQUAAEROLÍNEAS ARGENTINAS
MARTIN EURNEKIANCORPORACIÓN AMÉRICA
SEBASTIÁN AGUIRRECNN
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B I G D A T A &
I N N O V A T I V E
T E C H N O L O G Y
TOM MAESLUFTHANSA GROUP
ALEX DE GUNTENHEICO
DANIEL CARBAJALINTERNET WORLD TRADE GROUP
ALEX COVARRUBIASSITA
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