barriers to accelerating delivery christine whitehead lse new ideas for housing: tools for...

Barriers to Accelerating Delivery

Christine WhiteheadLSE

New Ideas for Housing: Tools for accelerating delivery

New London ArchitectureLondon

Wednesday November 11th

Housing Requirements in London

• Latest projections suggest 222,000 per annum required in England starting in 2011 through to 2031;

• The number of households in London is projected to increase by one third; • This implies that 25% of required homes need to be in London – i.e. 55,000

units a year• Currently building under 20,000 in 2014/15, although starts rising.

Housing supply(Source: GLA)

What are the Barriers (i) • Everyone says land with planning permission;• However, there are large numbers of

outstanding planning permissions – so story not so straightforward;

• Other reasons include • Land ownership – developers v rest?• Size of sites – large sites delivering much less;• Viability;• Managed output rates to maximise profits.

Housing pipeline, approvals and completions in London 2004-2013

What are the Barriers (ii) • Structure of the construction industry;• Traditionally three types of construction firm:

Large developers, SME builders; and contractors;

• Now dominated by large developers whose appetite is probably little more than 150,000 nationally;

• Need new entry/ different approaches.

What are the Barriers (iii)

• Shorter term: materials and skills shortages because of financial crisis;

• Longer term: inadequate training, few innovations; poor productivity; inflexibility on planning and building regulations;

• Most fundamental: macro economic volatility which generates asymmetric response and loss of output.

What are the Barriers (iv)

• Consumer finance: higher deposits; tougher financial regulations; lack of institutional finance;

• Affordability - is there effective demand?• Development finance:

– Short(er) term - post crisis closure of bank lending and need to offset by pre-sales;

– Longer term – risks associated with gaining planning permission and infrastructure which generate very high borrowing costs in early stages of development.

What are the Barriers (v)

Back to land into the longer term• Emphasis on brownfield;• Emphasis on London; • When we build infrastructure do not then

effectively enable more effective use of surrounding land;

• The Green Belt?

London Green Belt

Findings from our last project: topics to address before the Mayoral election

• The uncertainties introduced by the planning negotiation process—especially viability and s106;

• The near disappearance of small and medium-sized builders from the London market;

• The potential role of Housing Zones;• Whether the Mayor has the right powers in connection with

new development;• How the GLA and local authorities could contribute to

funding;• The case for a crisis package.

Our new report

Housing in London: Addressing the Supply Crisishttp://www.lse.ac.uk/

geographyAndEnvironment/research/london/docs/LSE-Report-Final-Version-Web-Authored.pdf

Many Thanks to GLA for data

c.m.e.whitehead@lse.ac.uk