balance of payments and related statistics: a european perspective rodrigo oliveira-soares dublin,...

Balance of payments and related statistics:

a European perspective

Rodrigo Oliveira-SoaresDublin, 23 February 2012

The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the ECB.

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Outline

• Introduction

• ECB Monetary policy

• Monitoring macroeconomic

imbalances

• Macroeconomic oversight

• Euro area statistics

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Introduction

"a body of methods for making wise decisions in the face of uncertainty."

Wilson Allen Wallis (1912–1998),

US economist and statistician.

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Monetary policy of the ECB

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Monetary policy of the ECB

Relationship between balance of payments and international investment position

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Monetary policy of the ECB

Euro area as a whole

Risks to price stability

Flows affecting monetary conditions and

exchange rate markets

Macroeconomic projections

Quarterly sector accounts

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Monetary policy of the ECB

Euro area as a whole

Balance of paymentsMonthlyQuarterly vs. main counterparts

International investment positionQuarterlyAnnual vs. main counterparts

Data in public data warehousehttp://sdw.ecb.europa.eu/

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Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances

Current-account balances, euro-area Member States (as % of GDP) – Surplus and deficit countries

Source: European Commission

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Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances

Source: European Commission

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Monitoring of macroeconomic imbalances

Improve EU economic governance

Alert mechanism to prevent and correct imbalances.

Early warning system based on 10 economic indicators of competitiveness, among which:

Current account balance

Net international investment position

Export market shares of goods and services

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Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system

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Macroeconomic oversight of the financial system

Independent EU body reduce systemic risks to financial stability avoid financial distress smooth functioning of the internal market

Set of indicators (White Book), including: Current account balance Gross external debt Net interest payments

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Statistics for the euro area as a whole

How do we gather statistics?

Transactions and positions with non-residents (“extra”)

17 countries + ECB own accounts

ECB Guideline and Recommendation

Portfolio investment– security-by-security– centralised database

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Statistics for the euro area as a whole

Implementation of new standards by 2014

Timely quarterly statistics Consistency with national accounts Relevance of the international investment position Financial intermediaries Investment fund shares Listed / non-listed equity

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Thank you for your attention

Questions?