baby boomers: the next 20 years

Baby Boomers: The Next 20 Years

Richard AdlerInstitute for Senior Living

April 12, 2012

Two visions of the future of aging

Thinking about the future

Foresight

Insight

Action

Methodologies:

• Expert workshops

• Ethnographic research

• Scenarios

• Artifacts from the future

• Collaborative forecasting

• Games

• Signal tracking

• Mapping

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Premise:The systems, structures and institutions created over the past half century to support older Americans will not scale up to accommodate the needs of the next generation of seniors.

Projected growth in health care spending, 2007-2082

Source: Long-Term Outlook for Health Care Spending, CBO, 2007

% of GDP

Model of change

• Cohort

• Age • Period

Cohort Effect: Life Expectancy, 1840-2000

Women

Men

Source: Broken Limits to Life Expectancy, Oeppen and Vaupell Science, May 10., 2002

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Cohort Effect: Prevalence of Disability in

the 65+ population, 1982-2005

Source: NIA, 2006

1985 1995 20050%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Age Effect: Prevalence of Disability by Age, 2009

Source: Administration on Aging,. A Profile of Older Americans: 2009.

Period Effect: Household Net Worth

Boomers: The Next 20 Years

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People in Daily Life:Extended Capacity

Signal: Older Athletes

Signal: Older Workers

Signal: Biomechatronics

People in Daily Life:Re-Sequencing of Life Stages

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Signal: Emergence of a New Lifestage

Signal: Emergence of a New Lifestage

Networks in Action: Self-Help 2.0

Signal: PatientsLikeMe

Signal: ITN America

Signal: Virtual Villages

Successful Aging: Avenidas Village-PAMF Partnership

Economies in Flux: Wealth Generation

Signal: Your Encore

Signal: Time Banks

Economies in Flux:Re-Institutioning

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Signal: Reinventing the Senior Center

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Signal: Reinventing Lifelong Learning

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Signal: Reinventing Retirement

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Signal: Reinventing Senior Housing

Signal: Old’Up

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Signal: Institute for the Ages

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Foresight

Insight

Action