autonomous vehicles and the future of fleet

Autonomous Vehicles and the Future of FleetSean M. Lyden ~ Journalist & Editor

Background

● CEO, Lyden Communications LLC

● Founder, Strategy + Storytelling

● Editor, Utility Fleet Professional

● Producer/ Moderator, Utility Fleet Conference 2015 @ ICUEE

Agenda1. Why Care? 3 Reasons

2. Key Terms to Know

3. Top 8 Trends Driving Autonomous Vehicle Development

4. What’s the Impact on Fleet?

5. Discussion: Q & A

Why Care?

Reason #1: Safety32,719 killed in motor vehicle crashes

in the U.S. in 2013 (NHTSA)

“That’s one Boeing 737 falling out of

the sky each day, 5 days per week.” ~

Jennifer Haroon, Head of Business

Operations, Google Self-Driving Car

Project

Reason #1: Safety

Human vs. Machine -- Which is Safer?

90 Percent of all vehicular accidents in the U.S, caused by

human error -- Network Employers for Traffic Safety

(NETS)

Reason #2: Productivity

The average commute time is 25 minutes each way, just under an

hour per day total ~ U.S. Department of Commerce

Reason #3: It’s not a matter of if, but when …

● 85 million autonomous-capable vehicles are expected to be sold annually around

the world by 2035 (Navigant Research, September 2015)

● Semi-autonomous vehicles expected by 2020

● Fully autonomous vehicles to begin entering the market 2025 (Dave Alexander,

Senior Analyst, Navigant)

Key Terms to Know

● ADAS

● 5 Sensor (Vision) Technologies

● “Autonomous”

ADAS

Examples:

● Backup Cameras

● Adaptive cruise control

● Lane departure warning

● Forward collision warning & avoidance

● Blind spot detection

● Park assist

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems

Sensor (Vision) Technologies

Sensor Technology #1: Lidar Light Detection And Ranging

Image: Popular Science

Sensor Technology #2: Cameras“Eyes” to Read Signs, Spot Obstacles

Image: Mobileye

Sensor Technology #3: SonarUltrasonic Range Finding

Image: Tesla

Sensor Technology #4: RadarRadio Waves to Measure Speed and Distance

Image: Autobytel

Sensor Technology #5: V2XVehicle-to-(Vehicle/ Pedestrian/ Infrastructure/ Everything)

Image: Denso Global

What Exactly Does “Autonomous” Mean?

Levels of AutonomyLevel 1: Function-Specific Automation: Involves one or more specific control functions.

(Electronic stability control, adaptive cruise control, etc.)

Level 2: Combined Function Automation: Involves at least two primary control functions

designed to work in unison to relieve the driver of control of those functions. (Highway Autopilot

-- Tesla)

Level 3: Limited Self-Driving Automation (Semi-Autonomous): Driver cedes full control

of all safety-critical functions under certain traffic or environmental conditions, while requiring

transition back to driver control under certain conditions. (1st Generation Google Car)

Level 4: Full Self-Driving Automation: Human provides destination or navigation input, but

is not expected to be available for control at any time during the trip. (Google “Pod”)

Source: NHTSA

The Top 8 Trends

Trend #1: Regulatory Push for ADAS● Backup Cameras

○ Mandated for all new vehicles under 10,000 lbs. GVWR in the U.S., including

buses and trucks, by May 1, 2018

● Electronic Stability Control (ESC)

○ Mandated for all heavy trucks (exceeding 26,000 lbs. GVWR) beginning in

2017.

● Collision Avoidance Systems (CAS)

○ NTSB report released June 2015 on The Use of Forward Collision Avoidance

Systems to Prevent and Mitigate Rear-End Crashes, stating that CAS are

ready for widespread adoption and should become standard on all new

passenger and commercial vehicles.

Trend #2: The Connected VehicleWiFi standard or optional

feature in 90 models for 2015

Connectivity enables …

● V2X (Denso)

● “Over-the-air” software

updates (Tesla)

Trend #3: Real - Time, Crowd-Sourced Mapping

Image: Wired/ Nokia HERE

Trend #4: Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI)Teaching Vehicles to “Think,” Learn and Adapt

● Joint research center: MIT, Stanford, Toyota ($50 million total

investment) -- September 2015

● “The new center will focus on developing advanced decision-making

algorithms and systems that allow vehicles to perceive and navigate their

surroundings safely, without human input.”

Trend #5: States Enacting AV Legislation

Source: National Conference of State Legislatures

Trend #6: Uber-ization of TransportationVehicles On-Demand

22% of Uber users age 18 to 64, who have

used the service in the past 6 months, said

they were delaying or holding off buying a

new car because of the car-sharing service

(Magid Advisors survey released on CNBC

10/3/15)

“Inefficiency” of Vehicle Ownership

Car driven 2 hrs per day, sits for 22 hrs =

9% utilization

Image: NewsBtc.com

Trend #7: Tech Companies as Automakers

Trend #8: Hurdles to Widespread User Acceptance

Will we trust a computer to drive us?

● Most U.S. adult drivers (72 percent) would not trust self-parking vehicle

technology to parallel park their vehicle ~ AAA: Park Assist Fact Sheet 2015

● Frequency of computer “crashes” with existing technology

● Concerns about cybersecurity

What’s the Impact on Fleet?● Driver training transitioning b/w levels of automation

● Risk management policies

● Vehicle ownership vs. leasing vs. on-demand

● Fleet supply chain

● Vehicle lifecycles

● Fleet analytics / KPIs

● Maintenance operations

● Fueling/ charging logistics

Discussion: Q&A

Sean M. Lyden

CEO, Lyden Communications LLC

sean@lydencommunications.com

www.strategyandstorytelling.com