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Assessing Investment Climate, Macroeconomics Indicators and Regulatory
Environment
Daniel Motinga Economist
Table of Contents } Overview of Business Climate } Doing Business in 2011 – Worldbank } Namibia Macroeconomics
} Structure of the Economy } Price developments and outlook (CPI + interest rates) } Demand indicators and trends (vehicle sales + housing) } GDP by sector share } GDP growth by sector } Telecoms and ICT in GDP
} Summary and conclusions
Sustainable Economic Transformation
Inputs
• Labour • Capital
Production
• Company Transformation • Technology
Income
• products • Services • Payments (salaries, taxes, profits) • Focus on triple bottom-line (environment, business, society)
Creative Destruction – Schumpeter’s } Starting a business } Trying to make it a success } Failing – it is important } Shutting down – the business not you! } Trying again….until successful
} SWOT Analysis of the Namibian economy
How Easy Is It To Do Business?
Getting started
Dealing with documentation
What it takes to start a business in Namibia?
Some improvements
Has it become easier in relative terms?
Construction permits
Has it become easier in relative terms?
How long does it take to register property?
Has it improved overtime?
How easy is it to get credit?
How easy it to pay taxes?
Has paying taxes become easier overtime?
Tax rate is quite competitive
How easy is it trade across borders?
Has it improved overtime?
How easy is it to enforce contracts?
How easy is it complete insolvency process?
What are the pillars of competitiveness?
Variables that inform stages of developments
At what stage is Namibia?
Namibia Global Competitiveness
Global competitiveness (cont’d)
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Namibia Ranking and dimensions
Problematic factors for doing business
MACROECONOMICS
Structure of the Economy - Production 1980 1990 2000 2011
Primary sector 59% 24% 21% 17%
Secondary sector
15% 14% 16% 18%
Services (incl. govt)
39% 54% 56% 57%
Structure of the Economy - Demand
58.5% 21.0%
20.2%
0.2%
Demand structure
Private consumption General government Investment Change in inventories
Namibia growth outlook
3.4%
-1.1%
6.6%
4.5%
4.0%
3.5%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Trends in credit demand
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
20.0%
Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12
Individuals Business Total
Namibia and SA Inflation
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00% 01
/200
9
02/2
009
03/2
009
04/2
009
05/2
009
06/2
009
07/2
009
08/2
009
09/2
009
10/2
009
11/2
009
12/2
009
01/2
010
02/2
010
03/2
010
04/2
010
05/2
010
06/2
010
07/2
010
08/2
010
09/2
010
10/2
010
11/2
010
12/2
010
01/2
011
02/2
011
03/2
011
04/2
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05/2
011
06/2
011
07/2
011
08/2
011
09/2
011
10/2
011
11/2
011
12/2
011
01/2
012
02/2
012
03/2
012
Nam inflation SA inflation
Namibia interest and inflation rates
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
policy rate (Nam) Inflation rate (risk)
Trends in new vehicle sales
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
Jan-99 Jul-00 Jan-02 Jul-03 Jan-05 Jul-06 Jan-08 Jul-09 Jan-11
New vehicle sales NV Y-o-Y change (%)
Structure of the Economy - Production 1980 1990 2000 2011
Primary sector 59% 24% 21% 17%
Secondary sector 15% 14% 16% 18%
Services (incl. govt) 39% 54% 56% 57%
Post and telecommunications 1.4% 1.5% 2.4% 2.8%
} The End
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