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ASIA AND PACIFIC COMMISSION ON AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS

TWENTY-SIXTH SESSIONThimphu, Bhutan, 15-19 February 2016

Agenda Item 6.4

Food Security Statistics in the transition from the Millennium Development Goals to the Sustainable Development Goals

Contributed by: Carlo Cafiero, Project ManagerFAO Statistics Division, Carlo.Cafiero@fao.org

APCAS/16/6.4.1-2

FoodSecurityStatisticsinthetransitionfromthe

MillenniumDevelopmentGoalstothe

SustainableDevelopmentGoals

CarloCafiero,PhDProjectManager,FAOStatisticsDivision

Presentationgivenatthe26thsessionofthe

AsiaandPacificCommissiononAgriculturalStatisticsThimphu, Butan 15-19February2016

MillenniumDevelopmentGoals

Goal1:EradicateextremepovertyandhungerTarget1.C:Halve,between1990and2015,theproportionofpeoplewhosuffer

fromhunger

Indicator1.8:Prevalenceofunderweightchildrenunder-fiveyearsofage(WHO/UNICEF/WORLDBANK)

Indicator1.9:Proportionofpopulationbelowminimumlevelofdietaryenergyconsumption (FAO)

ThePrevalenceofUndernourishment

• ExistingindicatorproducedbyFAOsince1974,andusedtomonitortheWorldFoodSummit(WFS)goal

• Undernourishment(French:sous-alimentation;Spanish: sub-alimentación)isdefinedastheconditionofanindividualbywhichhabitualfoodconsumptionlevelsdonotprovidesufficientdietaryenergytocovernormalrequirementsforanactiveandhealthylife

• While,inprinciple,assessmentcouldbebasedontheanalysisofindividualfoodconsumptionanddemographicdata,inpracticethisisdifficultduetothehighcostofcollectingthemonaregular,frequentbasis

• GlobalmonitoringbyFAOhasbeenpossiblethankstotheintegrationofdatafromdifferentsources:nationalfoodbalances,populationdataandhouseholdexpenditure/consumptionsurveys

ThePrevalenceofUndernourishment

• Estimatesareobtainedthroughastatisticalmodeloftheprobabilitydistributionforhabitual,dailydietaryenergyconsumptionlevelsinapopulation

• Lackingindividualdietaryintakeassessments,amodelisnecessarytoovercometheimpossibilitytomatchfoodconsumptionwithfoodrequirementsattheindividuallevel

• LimitedunderstandingoftheFAOPoUmodelhasspurredunfoundedcriticism

• Lackofsufficientlyreliable,disaggregateddata,hasallowedthusfaronlyestimatesofthePoUatnationallevelsandif>5%

• Soundmethodstoanalyzeexistingdataonthefoodconsumptionpatternsofhouseholdsandindividualsareneeded,while,atthesametime,moreandbetterdatamaybeneededinthefuture

OverviewofglobalfoodsecurityTheStateofFoodInsecurityintheWorldMeetingthe2015internationalhungertargets:takingstockofunevenprogress

TheMDGTarget1Chasbeenalmostmet

• Forthegroupofcountriesindevelopingregionsasawhole,thePoUdroppedfrom23.3%to12.9%(areductionofmorethan45%)

• Thetargethasbeenmetin• EasternAsia• South-EasternAsia• CaucasusandCentralAsia• LatinAmerica

• 73outof129developingcountriesmonitoredhavereachedtheMDGhungertarget

23.3%

18.2% 17.3%

14.1%12.9%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

PercentagePrevalenceofUndernourishmentinDevelopingRegions

Prevalence MDGtargetNote:Datafor2014–16 refertoprovisional estimates.Source:FAO

<5.0

<5.0

7.0

8.4

9.6

9.6

14.2

15.7

19.8

23.0

<5.0

13.9

14.1

6.4

30.6

23.2

15.7

23.9

27.0

33.2

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

NorthernAfrica

LatinAmerica

CaucasusandCentralAsia

WesternAsia

South-EasternAsia

EasternAsia

Oceania

SouthernAsia

Caribbean

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Percentageundernourished

1990-92

2014-16*

Source:FAO.

MDGtarget

…buttheWFSgoalhasbeenmissed

• Areductionofonly213millionundernourishedpeopleintheworldsince1990-92(areductionof21.5%)

• Duringthesameperiod,worldpopulationhasgrownby1.9billion• However,29outof129monitoredcountrieshaveachievedtheWFSgoal• Progresshasbeenfasterinthelastdecade

• 793millionareestimatedstilltobeundernourishedintheworldin2014-16

• 778millionofthemliveindevelopingregions

991909 927

805 778

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

NumberofUndernourishedinDevelopingRegions

Number WFSTarget

Millions

Note:Datafor2014–16 refertoprovisional estimates.Source:FAO

2014-16 Estimates, by region Number(millions)

Share (%)

Southern Asia 281 35.5Sub-Saharan Africa 218 27.5Eastern Asia 145 18.3South-Eastern Asia 61 7.6Latin America & the Caribbean 34 4.3Western Asia 19 2.4Northern Africa 4 0.5Caucasus & Central Asia 6 0.7Oceania 1 0.2Developed regions 15 1.9Total 793 100.0

Forthegroupofcountriesindevelopingregions,thetwoindicatorsrevealsimilartrends

InSouth-EasternAsiaundernourishmentdeclinedfaster:roomtoimprovefoodutilization

Thecorrelatesofsuccess

1. Economicgrowthisnecessarybutnotsufficient.Itneedstobeinclusivetoreachthepoorest

2. Increasingproductivityofsmallholder &familyfarmingimproves incomesandaccesstofood

3. Socialprotection (e.g.school-feeding, cashtransfers)isdoubly effective:a. Reduceshungerdirectlyb. Fosterseconomicopportunitiesandbuildsresilience

4. Accesstoruralmarketsprovidesmarketandemploymentopportunities5. Internationaltradeopennessdeliversbenefits, butalsorisks6. Protractedcrisesseverelyimpactfoodsecurity:

a. Resultingfrombynaturalorhuman-madedisasters(e.g.conflicts,politicalinstability)b. Ofthe20countriesinprotractedcrisis,onlyEthiopiareachedtheMDGhungertarget

• Sustainedpoliticalcommitmentatthehighestlevel,andsoundinstitutionsandpolicies,areprerequisitesforhungereradication

SustainableDevelopmentGoals

Goal2:“Endhunger,achievefoodsecurityandimprovednutritionandpromotesustainableagriculture”

Target2.1- “By2030,endhungerandensureaccessbyallpeople,inparticularthepoorandpeopleinvulnerablesituations,includinginfants,tosafe,nutritiousandsufficientfoodallyearround”

• Indicator2.1.1:Prevalenceofundernourishment• Indicator2.1.2:Prevalenceofmoderateorseverefoodinsecurityinthepopulation,basedontheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)

SustainableDevelopmentGoals

• IAEG-SDG isinchargeofthedefinitionoftheSDGmonitoringframework• MembersarerepresentativesofNationalStatisticalAuthorities (FAOandotherInternationalOrganizationsareobservers)

• Canendorsementofanindicatorbetakenasanimplicitcommitmenttoproducethedatanecessaryforitsimplementation?Webelieveitdoes.

• Asanoutcomeofthe2nd meetinginBangkok,anoteondatadisaggregationwasissued:

“SDGindicatorsshouldbedisaggregatedwhererelevantbyincome,sex,age,race,ethnicity,migratorystatus,disabilityandgeographiclocation,orothercharacteristics,inaccordancewiththeFundamentalPrinciplesofOfficialStatistics”

Twodifferentagendas

MDGs SDGs

Geographicalscope DevelopingRegions Universal

Focus Nationallevel “Leaveno-onebehind”

Ambition “Halvetheproportion…”(orbringitbelow5%) “Eradicate…End…”

Governance U.N.ledprocess Countrydriven

ThePrevalenceofUndernourishment

• InmonitoringtheSDGTarget2.1,thePoUshouldbecomputedforallcountriesintheworldandbeabletocapturealsolevelsthatarelessthan5%

• Having350millionundernourished(roughly5%oftheworldpopulation)wouldstillbeveryfarfromeradication

• Itshouldbecomputedalsoforsub-nationalpopulationgroups• Thisisgoingtobepossibleonlythroughexpandeduseofsurveydataandonlyifaconcerted,strongeffortismadeinimprovingthequalityoffoodconsumptiondata collectedvialarge-scalenationalsurveys

ThePrevalenceofUndernourishment

• RelevantFAOActivities• Improvedmethods forthecompilationofFoodBalanceSheets(FBS)andresearchonreconciliationoffoodconsumptiondatafromFBSandfromhouseholdsurveys

• DefinitionofaharmonizedFoodConsumptionModuleforinclusion inanyEconomicorLivingStandardMeasurementsurvey

• Datavalidationandanalysisthrough theADePT FoodConsumptionModule• TechnicalassistanceontheuseoftheADePT FoodConsumptionModule

• Recommendations• AgriculturalStatisticunitstocoordinatewithEconomic,SocialandHealthStatisticsunitstointegrateavailableinformationsourcesonfoodconsumption

• Elementarydatafromhouseholdbudgetandexpenditure/consumptionsurveyssharedwithFAOStatistics

TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)

• ThisnewindicatorhasbeenchosenalsoasaresultofinformationprovidedbyFAOonthesuccessfulapplicationoftheFIESin146differentcountriesandterritoriesintheworldin2014,withinthe“VoicesoftheHungry”(VoH)project

• Atechnicalreporton“Methodsforestimatingcomparableprevalenceratesoffoodinsecurityexperiencedbyadultsthroughouttheworld”hasbeenprepared

• HeadsofstatisticalofficesofmostcountriesintheworldhavehadtheopportunitytoreviewthedraftTechnicalReportandtheresultsitcontains

• Itwillbereleasedforpublicuselaterthismonth

TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)

• Experience-basedfoodsecurityscaleshavelongbeenusedintheUS,Canada,Brazilandseveralothercountriesforregularmonitoringofthefoodinsecurityconditionofhouseholds.

• Inallthesecasesestimatesareobtainedatnationalandsubnationallevels,asthedataarecollectedinlarge-scalesurveys,representativealsoatStateorDistrictlevel.

• Estimatesarebasedondatacollectedthroughsimplequestionnairesforpersonalinterviewsincludedatverylowcostinface-to-faceortelephonesurveys.

TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)

• Buildingontheexperiencewithexistingfoodsecurityscales,the“VoicesoftheHungry”projectwasestablishedbyFAO– andgenerouslysupportedbytheGovernmentoftheUKandBelgium– torespondtotwoveryimportantextantquestions:

• Whetherornotexperiencebasedscalesaresufficientlyrobustforapplicationinabroaderrangeofcountriesthatdifferbylanguage,culture,developmentandfoodsecuritycondition

• Whetheracommonstandardreferencescalecouldbecreated,toallowcalibrationofthemeasuresobtainedindifferentcountries.

TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)

• TheFIESwasdevelopedasadirectderivationoftheexistingEscalaLatinoamericanayCaribeña deSeguridad Alimentaria (ELCSA),itselfderivedinturnfromtheUSHouseholdFoodSecuritySurveyModule(HFSSM).

• IthasbeenadaptedforusethroughtheGallupWorldPoll(GWP),aninternationalsurveyestablishedin2005byGallupInc.,whichreachesabout160,000peoplefrommorethan150countrieseveryyear.

• FAOhascontractedGalluptocollectFIESdataonitsbehalfin2014,2015and2016,withaplantocontinueuntil2018.

TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)

• Resultsfromthefirsttwoyearsofdatacollectionshavebeenexceptionallygood.

• Aglobalreferencemetricfortheseverityofhouseholdorindividualfoodinsecurityhasbeenestablished

• MethodstocalibratethemeasuresobtainedfromtheFIESoranyoftheotherexistingcompatiblescales(EBIA,HFSSM,ELCSA,etc.)havebeendeveloped

• Severitythresholdscanbedefinedunambiguouslytodefineclassesoffoodinsecuritythatareequivalentacrosscountries

• Apanelofexpertsinthefieldsofstatistics,metrology,educationalmeasurement,econometrics,andfoodsecurityanalysis,convenedinaScientificWorkshopatFAOinMay2015,thoroughlyreviewedtheFIESmethodology

• Resultsfor2014havebeenpeerreviewedbyNSO’s

TheFoodInsecurityExperienceScale(FIES)

• ResultsfromtheVoicesoftheHungryprojectforeachindividualcountryonlyapplyatthenational level

• Theonly feasibledisaggregation isbysex.Inafewcases,byurbanandruralareas.

• Thelonger-term objective isthatnationalinstitutionstakeoverthetaskofestimatingtheprevalenceoffoodinsecurityinthepopulation,usingtheFIES,atnationalandsubnationallevel,withthemethodologyandtheharmonizedstandardprovidedbyFAO

• Itisrecommendedthatcountries includetheFIESinlarge-scalenationalpopulation survey

• Averageestimatedsurveytimelessthanthreeminutes• Validatedquestionnairesareavailableinthemorethan200differentlanguages• FAOstandsreadytoprovideanynecessarytechnicalsupport

Questionsfordiscussion

• ArecountriesreadytoreportonthePoUatnationalandsubnationallevel,usingFAOmethodology?

• Whatkindoftechnicalassistanceisneeded?

• Istherescopeforcoordinatingontheuseofcommonsurveytoolsforthecollectionoffoodconsumptiondata?

• HowfeasibleisthattheFIESbeincludedinfuturenationalsurveys?• HowthetwoFAOindicatorsrelatetootherinitiativesforfoodsecurityassessment(e.g.,theIntegratedPhaseClassification?)