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ICIC
I S
ecurit
ies –
Retail E
quit
y R
esearch
Result
Update
November 18, 2019
CMP: | 95 Target: | 120 ( 26%) Target Period: 12 months
Ashoka Buildcon (ASHBUI)
BUY
Tones down revenue guidance for FY20E!
Ashoka Buildcon’s (ABL) revenues grew 7.6% YoY to | 822.3 crore and were
above our expectation of | 788.6 crore. EBITDA margins expanded 138 bps
YoY to 14.9% and were above our expectation of 12.5%. RPAT grew 17.0%
YoY to | 72.7 crore, much above our estimate of | 49.2 crore, on account of
strong topline growth, EBITDA margin expansion and higher other income
(| 39.2 crore in Q2FY20 vs. | 15.7 crore in Q2FY19).
Order book at | 7,485 crore as of Q2FY20
ABL’s orderbook (OB) was at | 7,485.5 crore in Q2FY20, implying OB-to-bill
ratio of 1.8x TTM revenues, giving comfort on execution ahead. Of this,
| 3,814.5 crore BOT, | 1,809.3 crore EPC, | 716.2 crore power T&D, | 1,067.7
crore railway & | 77.8 crore CGD projects. This OB does not include Tumkur-
Shivamoga P-IV HAM project worth | 869.6 crore, recently won | 1,079.5
crore Bundelkhand Expressway and | 313.7 crore SRIT India (Smart City)
project. Expecting ordering activity to pick up from December, 2019, the
company is targeting order inflow (OI) of | 4,000-6,000 crore in FY20E. On
the execution front, it has received appointed date (AD) for seven HAM
projects and execution on all these projects has started. At Tumkur-
Shivamoga P-IV, 45% land is at 3G (determination of land compensation)
stage and concession agreement (CA) for this project is expected to be
signed by January, 2020. The AD for the project is expected after eight to 10
months. On account of slower execution in Q2FY20 due to prolonged
monsoon, the management has toned down its revenue growth guidance to
20-25% in FY20E. Overall, we expect construction revenues to grow 14.2%
CAGR to | 4,980.8 crore in FY19-21E.
Looking to conclude SBI-Macquarie exit deal by March, 2020
ABL infused | 50 crore equity in road HAM projects in Q2FY20. It is further
expected to infuse | 158 crore in H2FY20E, ~| 220 crore in FY21E & balance
| 19 crore in FY22E. On the CGD business front, ABL has invested | 51 crore
in the CGD business till now. Secondly, ABL has seen some investor interest
for buyout of Ashoka Concessions. In case the deal happens, ABL would be
able to provide exit to SBI-Macquarie. The enterprise value of portfolio of
seven projects is | 7,400 crore (| 4,800 crore debt and | 2,600 crore equity).
ABL expects to provide an exit to SBI-Macquarie by March, 2020.
Valuation & Outlook
Going ahead, we expect ABL’s execution to pick up pace on the back of
healthy orderbook, most of its HAM projects coming into execution and
huge opportunities ahead. With this, we anticipate execution will pick up
pace and expect EPC revenues to grow robustly at 14.2% CAGR to | 4,980.8
crore in FY19-21E. Overall, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the
stock with an SoTP-based target price of | 120/share. SBI-Macquarie stake
exit could remain overhang on the stock in the near term.
Analysis
Key Financial Summary
| crore FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E CAGR FY19-21E
Net Sales 2972.8 3601.0 4930.1 5801.1 6379.8 13.8%
EBITDA 952.8 1139.5 1394.3 1508.9 1656.7 9.0%
EBITDA Margin (%) 32.1 31.6 28.3 26.0 26.0
PAT -222.4 -118.7 19.9 -13.2 55.6 67.1%
EPS (|) -7.9 -4.2 -1.4 -0.5 2.0
P/E (x) -12.0 -22.5 -66.3 -201.4 48.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.5 6.4 5.8 5.6 4.8
RoNW (%) -47.4 -37.6 -14.0 -4.8 16.9
RoCE (%) 10.0 11.5 13.9 14.8 16.5
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Particulars
Particular Amount (| crore)
Market Capitalization 2,666.8
Total Debt 4,933.6
Cash 253.2
EV 7,347.2
52 week H/L (|) 155 / 90
Equity capital 140.4
Face value | 5
Key Highlights
ABL’s revenues grew 7.6% YoY to
| 822.3 crore in Q2FY20
Orderbook is at | 7,485 crore as of
Q2FY20, implying an orderbook-to-
bill ratio of 1.8x TTM revenues
Company has toned down its
revenue guidance to 20-25% in
FY20E
Maintain BUY with target price of
| 120/share
Research Analyst
Deepak Purswani, CFA
deepak.purswani@icicisecurities.com
Harsh Pathak
harsh.pathak@icicisecurities.com
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 2
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Exhibit 1: Variance Analysis
Particulars Q2FY20 Q2FY20E Q2FY19 YoY (%) Q1FY20 QoQ (%) Comments
Income from Operations 822.3 788.6 764.4 7.6 876.8 -6.2
Topline growth lhigher-than-expected on
account of better-than-expected execution
during the quarter
Other Income 39.2 15.0 15.7 149.0 34.2 14.6
Operating Expenses 626.2 623.0 599.7 4.4 691.6 -9.5
Employee Expenses 43.5 39.4 34.1 27.8 43.1 0.9
Other expenditure 29.7 27.6 26.9 10.4 32.6 -8.9
EBITDA 122.9 98.6 103.7 18.5 109.5 12.2
EBITDA Margin(%) 14.9 12.5 13.6 138 bps 12.5 246 bps
Depreciation 27.2 26.6 16.6 63.9 26.6 2.0
Interest 23.1 21.4 13.0 78.3 21.4 8.2
PBT 111.8 65.6 89.9 24.3 95.7 16.8
Taxes 39.1 16.4 27.8 40.8 31.0 26.0
PAT 72.7 49.2 62.1 17.0 64.7 12.4PAT growth was higher on account of higher
other income
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 2: Change in estimates
FY19 FY20E FY21E Comments
(| Crore) Old New % Change Introduced
Revenue 3,601.0 4,930.1 5,801.1 5,801.1 0.0 6,379.8 6,379.8 0.0 We tweak our estimates
EBITDA 1,139.5 1,394.3 1,554.0 1,508.9 -2.9 1,706.5 1,656.7 -2.9
EBITDA Margin (%) 31.6 28.3 26.8 26.0 -79 bps 26.7 26.0 -73 bps
PAT -118.7 -40.2 -47.4 -13.2 -72.1 10.8 55.6 414.4
Diluted EPS (|) -4.2 -1.4 -1.7 -0.5 -72.1 0.7 2.0 414.4
FY18
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 3: Assumptions
Current Current Earlier Earlier Comments
EPC FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E FY21E FY20E FY21E
Order Inflow 1,623 2,822 3,926 4,358 0 4,000 6,000 4,000 6,000 We tweak our estimates
Order Backlog 3,106 4,111 7,005 5,849 8,394 7,448 9,048 7,448 9,048
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 3
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Conference call highlights
Ordering activity: Tendering and ordering activity faced a slowdown in
H1FY20. The management expects this to pick up pace in the next three
to four months. As per the management, NHAI is expected to come up
with tenders worth | 70,000 crore in the next two to three months
Management guidance: ABL’s current order book worth | 7,485.5 crore
does not include Tumkur-Shivamoga P-IV HAM project worth | 869.6
crore, recently won | 1,079.5 crore Bundelkhand Expressway and
| 313.7 crore SRIT India (Smart City) project. On the order inflows (OI)
front, the management has maintained its OI guidance of | 4,000-6,000
crore in FY20E. On the financial guidance front, it has lowered its
revenue growth guidance to 20-25% in FY20E after factoring in the
impact of prolonged monsoons in Q2FY20 which impacted execution till
the first week of November. Furthermore, it aims to maintain EBITDA
margins at 11.0-12.5% in FY20E.
HAM projects update: ABL has received appointed date (AD) for all
seven HAM projects in its order book. Also, execution on all these
projects has started. At Tumkur-Shivamoga P-I & II, execution has
started since 80%+ land is available and the balance land is expected in
place in the next six months. At Tumkur-Shivamoga P-IV 45% land is at
3G stage. The company is expected to sign concession agreement (CA)
for this project by January, 2020 and AD for the project is expected 5-6
months after signing the CA.
Equity commitment: ABL infused | 50 crore equity in road projects in
Q2FY20. It is further expected to infuse | 158 crore in H2FY20E, ~| 220
crore in FY21E and balance | 19 crore in FY22E. On the CGD business
front, ABL has invested | 51 crore in CGD business till now while another
| 50 crore is to be infused by its project partner
Toll update: The toll collections have further reduced on Jaora-
Nayagaon project as it is facing traffic diversion issue. However, the
company expects normalcy to return once the issue gets resolved. The
management expects 4-5% traffic growth and 3-5% toll rate hikes for its
toll portfolio in FY20E
Debt update: ABL’s consolidated debt was at | 5,880.3 crore as of
Q2FY20. Of this, | 458.1 crore is standalone debt (| 227.6 equipment
loan, | 80.5 WC loan and | 150.0 crore NCDs) & | 5,272.2 crore is project
debt. The management expects standalone debt at ~| 600 crore by
FY20E end
Capex: The management has guided for | 95-100 crore capex in FY20E
and | 80-90 crore in FY21E
Taxation: The company has migrated to the new tax regime. The
management has guided for 27-28% tax rate for ABL. Some of the SPVs
of the company may continue with the older tax rate due to availability
of higher MAT credit
Asset monetisation: ABL has seen some investor interest for buyout of
Ashoka Concessions. In case the deal happens, ABL would be able to
provide exit to SBI-Macquarie. The enterprise value of portfolio of seven
projects is | 7,400 crore (| 4,800 crore debt and | 2,600 crore equity).
ABL expects to provide an exit to SBI-Macquarie by March, 2020.
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 4
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Company Analysis
Exhibit 4: Quarterly order book trend
7994.77435.4
67446235.7
5623.8
1769
1356.8
913.9
828
716.2
736.11104.6
1067.7
-2000
2000
6000
10000
Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
(| crore)
Roads Power T&D Railways & CGD
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 5: Annual order book trend
7005
5849
8394
7448
9048
0
4500
9000
13500
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(| crore)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 6: Annual EPC revenue and EBITDA margin trend
2045.1
2448.3
3820.6
4506.1
4980.8
13.6
12.0
13.5
12.0 12.0
9
11
13
15
17
0
700
1400
2100
2800
3500
4200
4900
5600
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(%
)
(| crore)
Revenues EBITDA Margin(RHS)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 5
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Exhibit 7: Quarterly gross toll collection trend
(| crore) Q2FY20 Q1FY20 Q4FY19 Q3FY19 Q2FY19 YoY (%) QoQ (%)
ABL Owned Projects
Ahmednagar - Aurangabad 9.7 8.4 7.5 7.8 7.1 36.2% 15.6%
Nagar - Karmala
Indore -Edalabad 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Wainganga Bridge 7.2 7.7 7.9 7.4 7.1 1.5% -5.4%
Dewas Bypass
Katni Bypass 5.0 6.0 5.4 5.5 4.8 2.9% -16.9%
Pune – Shirur
Others# 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.6 17.4 -93.9% 32.5%
Sub-total 22.9 22.8 21.2 21.2 36.5 -37.1% 0.6%
Sub-total (like-to-like basis) 21.9 22.0 20.7 20.6 19.1 14.8% -0.5%
ACL Projects
Belgaum Dharwad 21.3 23.7 23.5 23.3 21.8 -2.5% -10.3%
Dhankuni – Kharagpur 91.5 90.5 88.4 86.7 88.8 3.1% 1.2%
Bhandara 16.8 17.4 17.8 16.8 16.0 4.9% -3.4%
Durg 19.0 19.8 20.7 19.9 19.3 -1.1% -4.0%
Jaora – Nayagaon 43.2 46.0 49.0 49.7 51.6 -16.3% -6.0%
Pimpalgaon – Nashik – Gonde - - - - -
Sambalpur 16.6 17.1 18.4 18.1 17.3 -4.1% -3.2%
Sub-total 208.5 214.5 217.7 214.6 214.8 -3.0% -2.8%
Sub-total (like-to-like basis) 208.5 214.5 217.7 214.6 214.8 -3.0% -2.8%
Grand Total 231.4 237.3 238.9 235.8 251.3 -7.9% -2.5%
(Grand total) like-to-like basis 230.3 236.5 238.4 235.2 233.9 -1.5% -2.6%
Source: ICICI Direct Research, Company
Exhibit 8: Gross toll collection trend
23.336.5
21.2 21.2 22.8 22.9
218.1214.8
214.6 217.7 214.5 208.5
0.0
50.0
100.0
150.0
200.0
250.0
300.0
Q1FY19 Q2FY19 Q3FY19 Q4FY19 Q1FY20 Q2FY20
(| crore)
ABL Owned projects ACL Projects
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 6
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Exhibit 9: Consolidated revenue trend
2972.8
3601.0
4930.1
5801.1
6379.8
1000.0
2000.0
3000.0
4000.0
5000.0
6000.0
7000.0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(| crore)
13.8% CAGR
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 10: EPC revenue to grow at 14.2% CAGR in FY19-21E
2006.5
2470.6
3820.7
4506.1
4980.8
1500
3000
4500
6000
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(| crore) 14.2% CAGR
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 11: BOT revenue to grow moderately
849.7
881.4
921.8
1023.7
1127.6
250
500
750
1000
1250
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(| crore)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 12: Consolidated EBITDA margin trend
952.8
1139.5
1394.3
1508.9
1656.7
32.1 31.6
28.3
26.0 26.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
200.0
400.0
600.0
800.0
1000.0
1200.0
1400.0
1600.0
1800.0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(%
)
(| crore)
EBITDA EBITDA Margin (RHS)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 7
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Exhibit 13: PAT trend…
-222.4 -118.7
-40.2
-13.2
55.6
-8
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(%
)
(| crore)
PAT PAT Margin (RHS)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 14: Cash profit to remain healthy
41.6
172.8
218.0
325.9
463.1
0
100
200
300
400
500
FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E FY21E
(| crore)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 15: Return ratios trend
10.0 11.5 14.8
16.5
(47.4)
(37.6)
(4.8)
16.9
(60.0)
(50.0)
(40.0)
(30.0)
(20.0)
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
30.0
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
(%
)
RoCE (%) RoE (%)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 8
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Valuation & Outlook
Going ahead, we expect ABL’s execution to pick up pace on the back of
healthy orderbook, most of its HAM projects coming into execution and
huge opportunities ahead. With this, we anticipate execution to pick up pace
and expect EPC revenues to grow robustly at 14.2% CAGR to | 4,980.8 crore
in FY19-21E. Overall, we maintain our BUY recommendation on the stock
with an SoTP-based target price of | 120/share. SBI-Macquarie stake exit
could remain overhang on the stock in the near term.
Exhibit 16: ABL valuation
Project Name Stake (%)Length
(km)
TPC (|
crore)
Debt (|
crore)
Equity (|
crore)
Eq share (|
crore)
CoE(%)ABL Equity
Value (| cr)
Value/share
(| )
Ashoka Buildcon Limited (ABL) - BOT
Aurangabad - Ahmednagar 100.0 42.0 102.7 35.7 67.0 67.0 13.0 0.0 0.0
Katni Bypass 99.9 17.6 70.9 53.5 17.4 17.4 13.0 62.0 2.2
Nashirabad ROB 100.0 4.0 14.7 13.3 1.5 1.5 13.0 4.0 0.1
Sheri Nallah Bridge 100.0 4.0 14.2 7.2 7.0 7.0 13.0 0.0 0.0
Dhule Bypass 99.9 6.0 5.8 5.2 0.6 0.6 13.0 8.4 0.3
Dewas Bypass 100.0 20.0 61.3 36.0 25.3 25.3 13.0 64.2 2.3
Indore Edalabad 99.7 203.0 165 101.5 63.5 63.3 13.0 450.2 16.0
Wainganga Bridge 50.0 13.0 40.9 35.0 5.9 3.0 13.0 91.7 3.3
FOB Eastern Expressway 100.0 NA 3.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 13.0 0.7 0.0
KSHIP 51.0 110.0 471.0 287.0 47.0 24.0 13.0 59.7 2.1
Total (ABL)-BOT (A) 419.6 950.2 576.1 237.1 210.9 741.0 26.4
EPC (B) 100.0 5x FY20 EV/EBITDA 2703.6 96.3
ACL stake valuation ( C) 61.0 831.3 29.6
Less Standalone debt (D) 800.0 28.5
Total SoTP Valuation (A+B+C-D) 3475.9 123.8
Rounded off Target Price 120.0
30% Holding company Discount
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 17: ACL valuation
Project Name Stake (%) Length (km)TPC
(| crore)
Debt
(| crore)
Equity
(| crore)
ACL share
(| crore)
CoE(%) ACL Equity Value
Ashoka Concession Limited (ACL)
Bhandara 51.0 82.6 528.0 354.5 173.5 60.0 14.0 -64.0
Durg Chhattisgarh 51.0 71.1 630.5 410.0 220.5 100.2 14.0 64.0
Jaora Nayagaon 46.2 85.1 865.1 554.5 310.6 69.0 14.0 627.8
Belgaum Dharwad 100.0 82.0 694.1 479.0 185.0 185.0 14.0 266.9
Sambalpur Baragarh 100.0 88.0 1142.2 810.0 332.2 332.2 14.0 -114.8
Dankuni Kharagpur 100.0 11.6 2205.2 1516.2 689.0 689.0 14.0 923.1
Chennai ORR 50.0 32.0 1450.0 1080.0 173.0 86.5 14.0 243.9
ACL Valuation 452.4 7515.0 5204.2 2083.8 1521.8 1946.8
ACL stake (%) ` 61.0
ACL stake value 1187.5
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 9
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Exhibit 18: Recommendation History vs. Consensus
0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
0
100
200
300
Nov-19Aug-19May-19Feb-19Nov-18Aug-18May-18Feb-18Dec-17Sep-17Jun-17Mar-17Dec-16Sep-16
(%
)(|)
Price Idirect target Consensus Target Mean % Consensus with BUY
Source: Bloomberg, Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 19: Top 10 Shareholders
Rank NameLatest Filing
Date
% O/SPosition
(m)
Change
(m)
1 Parakh (Shobha Satish) 30-Sep-19 13.6% 38.0 0.0
2 Katariya (Asha Ashok) 30-Sep-19 7.1% 20.0 0.0
3 HDFC Asset Management Co., Ltd. 31-Dec-18 6.9% 19.5 0.1
4 Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited 30-Sep-19 6.5% 18.4 2.0
5 Katariya (Ashok Motilal) 30-Sep-19 5.4% 15.2 0.0
6 Katariya (Ashok Motilal) HUF 30-Sep-19 5.2% 14.6 0.0
7 Katariya (Ashish Ashok) 30-Sep-19 4.9% 13.7 0.0
8 Katariya (Ashish Ashok) HUF 30-Sep-19 4.4% 12.5 0.0
9 Katariya (Astha Ashish) 30-Sep-19 4.0% 11.2 0.0
10 SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. 30-Sep-19 3.3% 9.4 1.8
Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 20: Recent Activity
Investor name Value Shares Investor name Value Shares
Reliance Nippon Life Asset Management Limited 2.8 2.0 Canara Robeco Asset Management Company Ltd. -3.3 -2.4
SBI Funds Management Pvt. Ltd. 2.5 1.8 Sundaram Asset Management Company Limited -3.2 -2.3
ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. 0.6 0.4 ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Ltd. -0.9 -0.6
LIC Mutual Fund Asset Management Company Ltd. 0.3 0.2 L&T Investment Management Limited -0.2 -0.1
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company, N.A. 0.0 0.0 Mahindra Asset Management Company Pvt. Ltd. -0.2 -0.1
Buys Sells
Source: Reuters, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 21: Shareholding Pattern
(in %) Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19
Promoter 54.3 54.3 54.3 54.3 54.3
Public 45.7 45.8 45.7 45.7 45.7
Others
Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 10
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Financial summary
Exhibit 22: Profit and loss statement | crore
(| Crore) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Net Sales 3,601.0 4,930.1 5,801.1 6,379.8
Other income 51.6 77.1 87.1 95.5
Total Revenue 3,652.6 5,007.2 5,888.2 6,475.3
Raw Material Expense 95.9 175.8 (874.8) (959.1)
Operating Expenditure 1,392.0 1,683.3 3,591.8 3,949.9
Cost of materials sold 832.5 1,508.3 1,341.1 1,474.8
Employee benefit expenses 141.1 168.4 234.1 257.4
Total Operating Expenditure 2,461.5 3,535.8 4,292.2 4,723.1
EBITDA 1,139.5 1,394.3 1,508.9 1,656.7
Interest 993.8 1,021.3 1,061.7 1,047.7
Depreciation 291.4 258.2 339.2 407.6
Other income 51.6 77.1 87.1 95.5
PBT (94.2) 131.7 195.2 296.9
Taxes 83.7 170.9 221.8 262.5
PAT before MI (177.9) (39.2) (26.6) 34.5
Minority Interest - - - -
Share of Profit from Associates 59.2 (1.0) 13.4 21.1
PAT (118.7) (40.2) (13.2) 55.6
Adjusted EPS (Diluted) (4.2) (1.4) (0.5) 2.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 23: Cash flow statement | crore
(| Crore) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Profit after Tax (118.7) (40.2) (13.2) 55.6
Depreciation 291.4 258.2 339.2 407.6
Interest 993.8 1,021.3 1,061.7 1,047.7
Others (103.2) (154.2) (174.2) (191.0)
Cash Flow before wc changes 1,198.7 1,333.2 1,522.3 1,677.8
Changes in WC 190.2 (1,402.0) (175.0) 366.9
Taxes Paid (84.8) (170.9) (221.8) (262.5)
Net CF from operating activities 1,304.1 (239.7) 1,125.5 1,782.2
(Purchase)/Sale of Fixed Assets (160.0) (268.9) (103.0) (139.8)
Change in Others - Premium Payable 46.8 66.7 (561.4) (325.0)
Net CF from Investing activities (111.8) (95.7) (577.3) (369.4)
Increase/Decrease in NW (34.9) 11.2 0.0 -
Increase/Decrease in Debt 296.6 802.3 296.2 (170.9)
Interest Paid (993.8) (1,021.3) (1,061.7) (1,047.7)
Change in Minority Interest (23.2) 25.3 80.3 107.1
Net CF from Financing activities (755.4) (182.6) (685.2) (1,111.4)
Net Cash flow 437.0 (518.1) (137.0) 301.4
Opening Cash 102.3 253.2 234.2 97.2
Closing Cash/ Cash Equivalent 253.2 234.2 97.2 398.7
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 24: Balance sheet | crore
(| Crore) FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Liabilities
Equity Capital 93.6 140.4 140.4 140.4
Reserve and Surplus 222.3 146.5 133.3 188.8
Total Shareholders funds 315.9 286.9 273.6 329.2
Minority Interest 93.7 119.0 199.3 306.4
Total Debt 4,933.6 5,735.8 6,032.0 5,861.1
Deferred Tax Liability 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7
Other- NHAI Premium Payable 2,491.5 2,558.3 1,996.9 1,671.8
Total Liabilities 9,195 10,182 9,984 9,650
Assets
Gross Block 9,349.7 9,621.0 9,481.9 9,288.1
Less Acc. Dep 1,474.8 1,731.0 1,786.2 1,860.2
Net Block 7,874.8 7,890.0 7,695.7 7,427.9
Capital WIP 46.4 41.9 - -
Total Fixed Assets 7,921.2 7,931.9 7,695.7 7,427.9
Investments 247.1 283.5 283.5 283.5
Inventory 419.4 426.5 493.4 542.6
Sundry Debtors 815.5 1,316.4 1,450.3 1,594.9
Loans & Advances 198.2 244.8 1,508.3 1,658.7
Cash & Bank Balances 253.2 234.2 97.2 398.7
Other Current Assets 941.6 212.2 245.5 270.0
Total Current Assets 2,628.0 2,434.1 3,794.7 4,465.0
Other Current Liabilities 4,115.0 3,398.7 3,932.4 4,324.7
Provisions 595.8 835.3 835.3 835.3
Net Current Assets (2,082.8) (1,800.0) (973.0) (695.0)
Total Assets 9,195 10,182 9,984 9,650
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
Exhibit 25: Key ratios
FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E
Per Share Data (|)
EPS - Diluted (4.2) (1.4) (0.5) 2.0
Cash EPS 6.2 7.8 11.6 16.5
Book Value 11.3 10.2 9.7 11.7
Operating Ratios (%)
EBITDA / Net Sales 31.6 28.3 26.0 26.0
PAT / Net Sales NA 0.4 (0.2) 0.9
Inventory Days 42.5 31.6 31.0 31.0
Debtor Days 82.7 97.5 91.3 91.3
Return Ratios (%)
RoNW (37.6) (14.0) (4.8) 16.9
RoCE 11.5 13.9 14.8 16.5
RoIC 10.6 14.2 13.9 15.1
Valuation Ratios (x)
EV / EBITDA 6.4 5.8 5.6 4.8
P/E (Diluted) NA NA NA 48.0
EV / Net Sales 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.3
Market Cap / Sales 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.4
Price to Book Value (Diluted) 8.4 9.3 9.7 8.1
Solvency Ratios (x)
Net Debt / Equity 14.7 18.8 21.3 16.2
Debt / EBITDA 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.5
Current Ratio 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3
Quick Ratio 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 11
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
Exhibit 26: ICICI Direct coverage universe (Roads & Construction)
Sector / Company CMP M Cap
(|) TP(|) Rating (| Cr) FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E FY19 FY20E FY21E
KNR Constructions (KNRCON) 247 300 Buy 3,473 18.7 17.0 19.0 13.2 14.5 13.0 8.7 7.9 6.5 2.5 2.1 1.8 19.0 16.2 17.8
PNC Infratech (PNCINF) 190 250 Buy 4,849 11.9 18.2 17.1 15.9 10.4 11.0 10.7 6.6 6.5 2.3 1.9 1.7 14.4 18.4 15.0
Ashoka Buildcon (ASHBUI) 95 120 Buy 2,667 -1.4 -0.5 2.0 NA NA 48.0 5.8 5.6 4.8 NA NA 8.1 NA NA 16.9
NCC (NAGCON) 58 75 Buy 3,484 9.4 6.1 7.1 6.2 9.5 8.1 3.6 4.9 4.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 11.9 7.3 7.9
RoE (%)EPS (|) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/B (x)
Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 12
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
RATING RATIONALE
ICICI Direct endeavors to provide objective opinions and recommendations. ICICI Direct assigns ratings to its
stocks according to their notional target price vs. current market price and then categorizes them as Buy, Hold,
Reduce and Sell. The performance horizon is two years unless specified and the notional target price is defined
as the analysts' valuation for a stock
Buy: >15%
Hold: -5% to 15%;
Reduce: -15% to -5%;
Sell: <-15%
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com
ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
1st Floor, Akruti Trade Centre,
Road No 7, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com
ICICI Securities | Retail Research 13
ICICI Direct Research
Result Update | Ashoka Buildcon
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our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that
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