around the world in eighty disasters - inaugural lecture

Around the World in80 Disasters

Global TrendsLocal Challenges

DavidAlexander

When and where did I start?

I was a seven-stoneweakling and a UCL

PhD student!

Sunday23rd

November1980

19:34.52.8

Disaster Risk Reduction

Recoveryand

reconstruction

Mitigationandresilience

Preparationandmobilisation

Emergencyintervention

Quiescence

Crisis

The disastercycle

Recoveryand

reconstruction

Mitigationandresilience

Preparationandmobilisation

Emergencyintervention

Crisis

Emergencyplanning andorganisation

ofsecuritysystems

Warning and

preparation;damage

limitationmeasuresactivated

Emergencyoperationsand damagelimitation

Recovery andrestoration

Safetymanage-ment of

emergencyoperations

Quiescence

"Theory isour roadmap"

Prof. Thomas E. DrabekUniversity of Denver

Rev. DrSamuel Henry Prince

1885-1960Nuova Scotia,

Columbia University

ProfessorHarlan H. Barrows

1877-1960Michigan,

Chicago University

1920

1923

Can we define disaster?

1998 2005

With what theoreticalbasis has 93 years

of academic study ofdisasters endowed us?

HUMANCONSEQUENCES

OF DISASTER

“ORTHODOX” MODEL

PHYSICALEVENT

HUMANVULNERABILITY

“RADICAL CRITIQUE” (K. HEWITT et al.)HUMAN

CONSEQUENCESOF DISASTER

HUMANVULNERABILITY

PHYSICALEVENT

PROPOSAL FOR A NEW MODEL

HUMANCONSEQUENCESOF DISASTER.

HUMANVULNERABILITY

CULTURE HISTORYPHYSICALEVENTS

CONTEXT & CONSEQUENCES

Since the 1979-83"vulnerabilityrevolution",

have we seenthe triumph ofthe "orthodox"

approach?

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Papers published in Natural Hazards and NHESS

Natural Hazards Natural Hazard and Earth System Sciences

Papers published in Natural Hazardsand NHESS, 1988-2013

1990s:Average 45

2013:Total 800

― Natural Hazards― Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

1988 2013

450

Founded in 2012to promote genuinelyinterdisciplinary work.

It is one of 67dedicated DRRjournals and morethan 500 thatpublish papersin this field.

• from two or three journals in 1970sto 70 dedicated journals in 2013,+ c. 500 that publish DRR papers

• the disaster "gold rush" mentality

• the rediscovery of the [well-]known by inexperienced researchers

• failure to produce new theory.

On the productivity of disaster science

• the rise of misleading bibliometry

[1993] [1990]

Some links

Effects of

technology onvulnerability to

natural disasters

Effects of naturaldisasters on

technological capital

Social conditionsas factors that

incubate

dissidence

Tech

nologica

l

compo

nent

of a

cts

ofte

rror

ism

Intentionaldisasters

Technologicaldisasters

Socialdisasters

Naturaldisasters

Gertrude Stein,1913 [adapted]

A disaster isa disaster is a disaster...

Its "disastrousness" is notdefined by its causal agent.

ResilienceResistance

Risk Susceptibility

Physical(including natural,built, technological)

Social(including cultural,political, economic

EnvironmentAtt

ribut

es

Source: McEntire 2001

Liabilities

Capa

bilities

VULNERABILITY

American CivilLiberties Unionreport on thetreatment ofprisoners duringthe aftermathof HurricaneKatrina.

Squatter settlementin Bangladesh Flood level

Normal river level

Rather than mitigating the sources ofvulnerability to disaster, globalisation ismaintaining, exporting and reinforcing

them by its divide-and-rule strategies.

Vulnerability

Total: life isgenerally precariousEconomic: people lackadequate occupationTechnological/technocratic: dueto the riskiness of technologyDelinquent: caused bycorruption, negligence, etc.Residual: caused bylack of modernisationNewly generated: caused bychanges in circumstances

Have disastersbeen getting worse?

• population increases in hazard zones

• society is more complex and polarised

• new sources of vulnerability

• cascading and complex impacts

• failure adequately to mitigate risk.

Have disasters been getting worse?

Cascading effects

Collateral vulnerability

Secondarydisasters

Interaction between risks

Climatechange

Probability

Indeterminacy

"Fat-tailed" (skewed)distributionsof impacts

Fallinghazardprobability

Risingvulnerability

Optimummitigationlevel??

'Fat-tailed'(negatively skewed)

distribution

Magnitude

• the relative view: there areplenty of other sources of risk

• increased information flowsmake things seem worse

• more agencies are at work on disasters

• disasters are getting more political.

Have disasters been getting worse?

Have we made any serious progress at all in DRR since 1983?

DETERMINISMCause Effect

PROBABILITY(constrained uncertainty)

Cause Single, multiple or cascading effects

THE KNOWN

THE UNKNOWN

PURE UNCERTAINTYCausal relationship

unknown

Greyarea

Organisationalsystems:management

Socialsystems:behaviour

Naturalsystems:function

Technicalsystems:

malfunction

VulnerabilityHazard

Resilienc

e

Politicalsystems:decisions

• the main emphasis is still on reactingto disasters, not reducing disaster risk

• there has been an enormous rise inhazards studies, but much less efforthas gone on studying vulnerability

• the social and perceptual componentsof disaster remain undervalued

• the role of theory is underestimated.

Progress in disaster risk reduction?

In disasters and disaster risk,how important is gender?

Kobe 1995 earthquake deathsby gender and age

― males ― females

Victimisation of women and girls in and after disaster is common throughout the world, but in many cases the reasons are poorly understood.

One in six deaths was anold lady whose death was notpredicted by demographics

• an excess of deaths among women

• very high post-traumatic stress levels

• victimisation in survivors' families

• failure to consider female perspective

• decision making largely by men.

Women and the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake

• "forgiveness money"

• vote buying

• political control throughfunding decisions

• corruption andtheft of funds

• profiteering and deliberatedistortion of markets.

Welfare and...

What is resilience?

The "cradle"of resilience:

Canonbury TowerLondon N1.

Built in 1509to survive the

Universal Deluge:inhabited in 1625by Francis Bacon.

Francis BaconSylva Sylvarum, 1625

[Are we to criticise him for usingthe "greengrocer's apostrophe"?]

LAW

STATESMANSHIP

LITERATURE

SCIENTIFICMETHOD

MECHANICS

MANU-FACTURING

ECOLOGY

MANAGEMENT(ADAPTIVE)

CHILDPSYCHOLOGY

ANTHROPOLOGY

SOCIALRESEARCH

DISASTER RISKREDUCTION

SUSTAINABILITYSCIENCE CLIMATE CHANGE

ADAPTATION

c. BC 50

AD 15291625

1859

19301950

1973

2000

2010

NATURALHISTORY

• an objective, a process or a strategy?

• a paradigm, diverse paradigms?

• 'bounce-back' or 'bounce-forward'?

• focuses on the community scale?

• can reconcile dynamic & static elements?

Resilience

RESILIENCE

Social

Tech

nica

l

Physical

Psych

ological

CLIMATE CHANGEADAPTATION

DISASTER RISKREDUCTION

OTHER HAZARDSAND RISKS

naturalsocial

technologicalintentionalcompoundcascading

SUSTAINABILITYSCIENCE

RISKSdaily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.emerging risks: pandemics, climate change

SUSTAINABILITYdisaster risk reduction

resource consumptionstewardship of the environment

economic activitieslifestyles and communities

SUSTAINABILITY

RESILIENCE:as a material has brittle strength and ductility:so must society havean optimum combination of resistance tohazard impacts and ability to adapt to them.

physicalenvironmental

socialeconomic

health-relatedcultural

educationalinfrastructuralinstitutional

RESILIENCECOPING

VULNERABILITYFRAGILITY

SUSCEPTIBILITYOrganisation:• public admin.• private sector• civil society

Community

Individual

Resilience: facets...

...and relationships

Causes of disasternatural geophysical,technological, social

Historysingle andcumulativeimpactof pastdisasters

Humancultures

constraintsand

opportunitiesIMPACTS

Adaptationto risk

RESILIENCE

Long term

Short term

Emic components

Etic components

METAMORPHOSISOF CULTURE

Experiences of culture[mass-media and consumer culture]

Accumulated cultural traits and beliefs

Inherited cultural background

Ideological(non-scientific)interpretations

of disaster

Learned(scientific)

interpretationsof disaster

Conclusion: onthe shoulders

of giants

Tony Oliver-SmithKai Erikson

• as Kai Erikson noted, disaster shiftsour position on fundamental dimensions

• we live in the New Baroque Age

• characterised by tension of opposites

• massive cultural dynamism isredefining the symbolism of disaster

• to understand disaster, weneed to be interdisciplinarywith boldness and ingenuity.

There is no doubtthat "we live in

interesting times".

Chrestomathia

david.alexander@ucl.ac.ukwww.slideshare.net/dealexanderemergency-planning.blogspot.com

Ishinomaki, Japan