architecture for increasing space markets

Architecture for IncreasingSpace Markets

Daniel HettemaScott Neal

Anh QuachRobert Taylor

2

Agenda• Context• Stakeholders• Problem & Need Statements• Architecture Requirements• Objective & Proposed Solution• Design Process• Simulation• Transitional Architecture Plan• Conclusion• Management

CONTEXT

Context• Space has resources that could be

used on Earth, or in space to develop a space market

• Capabilities and/or technologies for taking advantage of those resources do not currently exist

• Through an incremental “stepping stone” approach, capabilities and/or technologies can be developed to expand the market

4

5

Unmanned Probe to Alpha

Centauri

Near Earth Colonies

Near- Earth Asteroid Mining

and Manufacturing

Space Power Generation &

Asteroid Defense

Hotel , Space Tourism & Garbage Collection

Resulting Commercial Products• Being search for new

habitable planets• Test long-range propulsion

technologies

Resulting Commercial Productions• New Living space• New ways to improve

environment on Earth

Resulting Commercial Products• New Materials• New, low-temp, low-pressure

manufacturing techniques

Direct Products• Minerals• Energy

Potential Indirect Products/Results• Improved protection for Earth from

Space artifacts• Enhance international cooperation

New Enabling Technologies• Improved Propulsion• Improved life support

“Stepping Stones”

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Potential for ROI in Space

ROI

Time

Space Market

Potential plan

Current plan

Gap

“Obtaining economic benefits from commercial space, including tourism and space solar power…should be the major thrust of our space enterprise.”

-SSI Director Dr. Lee Valentine (2002)

1x

2x

-2x

-1x

7

Current Market• Big Players

– Tourism– Government– Private Industry

• Resources– Solar– Moon– Asteroids

• Limitations– Launch Costs– Funding– Public Interest

8

Tourism Market• $758.7B [US] (EITT, 2010)• Current plans

– Virgin Galactic• Current space trips: Starting at $200k

– 6 minutes at 68 miles above Earth’s surface– Speeds up to 2500 MPH (Virgin, 2011)

– Bigelow Aerospace• Invested $180M, will invest up to $.5B• Expandable Space Habitat designs and

prototypes (Bigelow, 2011)8

9

Governments• Funding

– Steve Anderson, Brigadier General (Ret.)• US spends $20B air-conditioning tents and

temporary structures in Iraq• NASA annual budget is $18.7B (Opam, 2011)

– $71B spent over 50 countries on space programs in 2010

• China: $1.3B • Russia: $3.8B• India: $1.25B (EARSC, 2011)

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Private Industry• SpaceX

– Projected to obtain $1k/lb launch cost goal• Should be maintained if 4 launches annually

– Announced April 2011• First projected launch in 2013

– Payload of 53,000 kg (116,845 lb)– Classification

• Super Heavy (≥50,000 kg)

(SpaceX, 2011)

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Limitation• Launch costs

– Need for a lower cost per pound index• Government Funding

– Not enough funding by governments• Budgets too small or non-existent

• Laws– Moon treaty

• Bans any state from claiming sovereignty over any territory of celestial bodies. Not ratified by US or other space capable countries.

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Potential Market Resources

• Space Conditions:–Vacuum–Low gravity–Temperature extremes

• Resources in space:–Solar power–Minerals

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Resources In Space: Energy

• $370 B [US] (USCB,2011)• Space Based Solar Power:

• Geostationary SBSP receives nearly continuous sunlight 99% of operational time

– If launch costs of $200/lb could be attained, energy could be sold at as low as 8¢/kWh (NSSO, 2007)

• Natural Gas: approx. 3.9-4.4¢/kWh• Coal: approx. 4.8-5.5¢/kWh• Nuclear: approx. 11.1-14.5¢/kWh

(PES,2011)

14

Resources In Space: SBSP

High solar energy reception (>3x)Transmission Efficiency to Earth: 80-90% (1122-1260 Watts/m2)

(NSSO, 2007)

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Resources In Space: Minerals

• Moon• Oxygen, silicon, iron, nitrogen, magnesium,

aluminum, and calcium (Brian, 2010)• Asteroids

• > 832 – 1km in NEO (NASA, 2011)• Composition

• Iridium, osmium, platinum, helium, copper• Nickel, iron, gold, oxygen, hydrogen, nitrogen• Potassium, phosphorus

• What minerals needed for life?• Water, oxygen (human life)• Nitrogen, potassium, phosphorus (plant life)

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Resource Values on Earth

Current market value per ounce:– Gold - $1642– Platinum -$1519– Rhodium - $1625– Iridium - $1085– Palladium - $605

(Matthey, 2011)

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Minerals Vs Time

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

0500

1000150020002500300035004000450050005500600065007000

Gold PlatinumRhodiumIridiumPalladium

Year

Pric

e pe

r Oun

ce (U

S$)

(Matthey, 2011)

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Platinum Trends

19921994

19961998

20002002

20042006

20082010

20122014

20162018

20200

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800f(x) = 71.2751654135338 x + 31.8422631578944R² = 0.832130267500056

Platinum

PlatinumLinear (Platinum)

Years

Price

per

oun

ce

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Potential for ROI in Space

ROI

Time

Space Market

Potential plan

Current plan

Gap1x

2x

-2x

-1x

STAKEHOLDERS

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Major and MinorStakeholders

• Major stakeholders– Governments– Insurance– Mining &

Manufacturing– Tourism– Earth’s

Population– Energy

• Minor stakeholders– Robotics– Launch– Command &

Control– Agriculture– Telecommunicati

on

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Potential Stakeholder Diagram

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Gap: Limited Market

Current Stakeholder Diagram

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Potential Stakeholder Diagram

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Current Stakeholder Diagram

Tension:No collaboration

betweenIndustries

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Stakeholder Objectives• Government’s Objective

– Expand domain, boost economy, protect the people

• Planetary Defense• Protect against misuse of space

• Insurance’s Objective– Lower risk in space

• Satellites

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Stakeholder Objectives (cont’d)

• Mining Objective– Sustainable space-based mining

• Manufacturing Objective– Establish permanent manufacturing

facilities in space• Tourism Objective

– sustainable space-based tourism economy

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Stakeholder Objectives (cont’d)

• Earth’s Population’s Objective– Better life

• More resources = More products• Potential new techniques in space

• Energy Objective– Provide energy to Earth & space at

minimal detriment to the environment

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Minor Stakeholders• Robotics

– Autonomy• Telecommunication

– Tele-autonomy, Communication• Launch

– Launch sites• Command & Control

– Administrative• Agriculture

– Food production in space• Entertainment

– Inspiration, publicity

PROBLEM & NEED STATEMENT

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Problem StatementThere are potentially large markets that can utilize the resources and benefits of space. However, the

capabilities to utilize those resources do not cost effectively exist in current

markets. Through an incremental “stepping stone” approach, the

architecture will show the order for the development of capabilities to attain

resource utilization in space.

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Need StatementCurrently, the required investment needed to capture space resources is too high. A

high-level architecture that shows how through an incremental “stepping stone” approach the total investment could be

lowered, as industry collaboration is increased. The architecture will provide a road map for industry investments with a

minimum of 1.5x return on investment from a total investment of less than one

trillion dollars annually.

ARCHITECTURE REQUIREMENTS

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RequirementsThe architecture shall:

– show the overall investment from industries is less than one trillion dollars annually.

– be designed such that no individual stakeholder will invest more than 10% of overall investment.

– produce a plan that generates an ROI of at least 150% for all stakeholders over 5 years.

– be limited to three levels of functional decomposition.

– produce a plan for investment into capabilities defined as necessary for a space market.

OBJECTIVE & PROPOSED SOLUTION

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Proposed SolutionDesign a high-level transitional

architecture that shows how industry collaboration can be used to further develop capabilities for space development. The design will show through a sequence of

stepping stones how investment in capabilities could be leveraged

from the current market position.36

Objective of Project• Thesis:

– Corporation can make money in space– Without mining & manufacturing the required

investment from other industries is larger• Generate an ROI calculator

– Allows industries to input their data• Included in SPEC Innovations proposal for

DARPA’s 100 Year Starship– GMU Space ROI and Architecture:

“Identifies potential for return on investment for space to attract commercial and public support”

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DESIGN PROCESS

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Top Level Classic Context Diagram

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Model Context

NOW NEAR TERM………….. LONG TERM

TransitionAs - Is To - Be

How you move from now to then Your Vision

-From SPEC Innovations

What you have

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As-Is Conceptual Model• Very Limited Functionality• Restricted by:

– Investment– Laws– Launch capabilities– Technology development

• Well known

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To-Be Conceptual Model• Contains key functionality for

developed space• Allows industry's “assets” to

perform together• Illustrates collaborative efforts

between industries

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Operational Scenarios: Process

• Construct 7 scenarios for developing space

• Range from easy to complex• Each scenario builds functionally

on the previous scenario

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Operational Scenarios1. Moon Round-trip2. Debris Collection3. Space Based Solar Power4. Lunar Hotel from Earth5. Solar Flare at Lunar Hotel6. Space Mining7. Lunar Hotel with Space

Materials

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Operational ScenariosScenario Business Environme

ntal RiskLaunch Location

Max Distance

Product Expected Duration

1 Tourism None Earth Moon None 10 days

2 Insurance/Recycling/Governments

None Earth GEO Recycled materials, reduced risk

3 days

3 Energy None Earth GEO Energy None

4 Tourism/Manufacturing

None Earth/Moon

Moon Hotel Long Term

5 Tourism/Manufacturing

Solar Flare Earth/Moon

Moon Hotel Long Term

6 Mining None Earth/Asteroid

1.3 AU Ore 3 years

7 Tourism/Mining/Manufacturing

Micro meteorite

All 1.3 AU Hotel/Ore Long term

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Scenario 11. Launch from Earth2. Establish course to Moon3. Traverse to Moon4. Enter Moon orbit5. Maintain Moon orbit6. Leave Moon orbit7. Establish course to Earth8. Traverse to Earth9. Land on Earth10.Service vehicle

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Enhanced Function Flow Block Diagram (EFFBD)

Loop

Function

Parallel Branches

Output

Input

Trigger

Exit Condition

Loop Exit

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Functional Model: Scenario 1

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Scenario 1 Elements• Assets:

– Earth, Moon, space ship• Resource:

– Space ship fuel (consumed)• Potential Costs:

– Fuel consumption, function based on duration

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Integrated Behavior Model

• Abstracted functionally from all scenarios

• Validated by scenarios• Identifies:

– Necessary functions– “Generic” assets

• Will be in a “steady state”• Foundation for ROI calculator

SIMULATION

Simulation• Using Vitech CORE Sim

– Built-in to CORE– Includes COREScript

• Modify element’s parameters– Duration, Cost, Amounts

Schedule CostPerformance

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Simulation Purpose• Aids in validating functional model• Shows logical loops, resource

manipulation• Shows element attribute

manipulation’s effect on whole system– Reducing the cost of an asset– Decreasing communications delay

• Design of Transitional Architecture is dictated by simulation

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Simulation of Scenario 1

• Video of scenario 1 simulation

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Simulation of Scenario 1

TRANSITIONALARCHITECTURE PLAN

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Design of Experiment• Perform a Functionality Gap

Analysis• Produce the Integrated

Behavioral Model• Use Integrated Behavioral Model

to create the ROI calculator• Use ROI calculator to produce

architecture design plans for maximizing ROI

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Functionality Gap Analysis

• Identifies functions from completed “To-Be” model that are:– Underdeveloped in “As-Is”– Nonexistent in “As-Is”

• Identifies limitations from “As-Is” that need to be overcome

• Identifies necessary future capabilities/technologies

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An ROI Calculator• If an industry was to invest some

value at this time, the investment will show an ROI %

• Based on:– Element attributes– Estimated functionality costs

• Compare full lifecycle costs on Earth to those in space

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Notional ROI Equations• ROI = Revenue – Investment

-

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Investment Plan• Gantt Chart showing the

sequence of capabilities/technologies for development

• Identifies critical capabilities/technologies for each of the “stepping stones”

• Focus on having sustainability at each level

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Investment Plan: Alternatives

• The ROI calculator will produce alternative outputs

• Outputs will vary due to– Adjustments in investments from

industries– Adjusted time constraints– Breakthroughs in capabilities or

technology– not developing a capability or

technology

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Value HierarchyValue

HierarchyGovernment

.16

Earth’s Population

.1 Mining & Manufacturing

.25

Tourism

.16

Energy

.16

Insurance

.17

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Value HierarchyMining &

Manufacturing.25

Environment Sustainability Profitability

Earth’s Population

.1

Security Quality of Life

Environment

CONCLUSION

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Summary• Create a high-level architecture that

will bridge the gap between today’s current market plan (little to no ROI) and a future potential plan (significantly higher ROI with limited risk involved)

• Provides an investment plan for the functionality of a space market

• Eases tension between industries by promoting collaboration

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Implementation

• Utilizing the transitional architecture will close the gap

ROI

Time

Space Market

Potential plan

Current plan

Generated market plan

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Continuing Work• Create functional models of

scenarios• Validate Integrated Behavior

Model• Perform functional gap analysis• Identify necessary technologies• Develop the ROI calculator• Test project thesis• Present Recommendations

MANAGEMENT

Management• Architecture Development

Process• Project Risks• Work Breakdown Structure

(WBS)• Project Budget• Project Schedule

– Critical Path

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14. Provide Options

Architecture Development Process

5. Develop the Operational Context Diagram

15. Conduct Trade-off Analyses

6. Develop Operational Scenarios

1. Capture and Analyze Related Artifacts

4. Capture Constraints

3. Identify Existing/Planned Systems

2. Identify Assumptions

7. Derive Functional Behavior

8. Derive Assets

10. Prepare Interface Diagrams

12. Perform Dynamic Analysis

11. Define Resources, Error Detection & Recovery

13. Develop Operational Demonstration Master Plan

16. Generate Operational and System Architecture Graphics, Briefings and Reports

Requirements Analysis

Functional Analysis

Synthesis

System Analysis and Control

9. Allocate Actions to Assets

time

71 Provided by: SPEC Innovations

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RiskValidation of Integrated

Behavior Model

Incomplete Gap Analysis

Mitigation Plan• Increase complexity of

Scenarios• Meet with SME

• Add level of depth to

Integrated Behavior Model

Project Risk

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WBS

74

WBS

75

WBS

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Budget

13.5 hr per person per week, 54 hr per week

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 350

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Project Budget

New BudgetActualEarned Value

Weeks

Dolla

rs

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QUESTIONS?