apps vs browser

Take 2

Jon, would you like to present with me at

Cannes on mobile this year?

That would be awesome! Thanks

Simon…

Great…in the first hour I am going to cover

everything known to man about mobile…

…what would you like to do in the 2nd hour?

…and btw can you make it interactive as

well please with no wireless or 3G?

For me, Wired Magazine and a gadget…

Source: Wired, July 2010

How awesome is this picture?

How awesome is this gadget?

Does the rise of the App

spell the end for

the Browser?

+44 762 480 6527Text: APPS

Text: BROWSER

Or

Text: NOTSURE

I will present the counter argument too…just in case

When you see the angry lady – duck!

So let us begin

Since the beginning of the

internet…

+ Most of us have experienced the

internet in an entirely browser-

centric way, interacting with

websites

It looked a bit like this to begin with…

Then it looked like this…

Now, increasingly it looks like this

But the building block of the mobile

web isn’t the website…

It’s the app…

Using Twitter?

There’s an 81.43% chance you are using an

app

Source: Twitstat

Established web-friendly firms are finding that consumers prefer engaging with them on apps…

…but it’s not just pure plays. High street banks and supermarkets are seeing it too.

“Apps on mobile devices may soon overtake the web itself as the main platform for consumer software…”Source: Wired, July 2010Tim O’Reilly’s

chin…of Web2.0 fame

So certain are you Mr O’Reilly?

Estim

ated

Glo

bal I

nsta

ll Ba

se,

2013

PCs

Smartphone & browser

equipped phones

Gartner's Top Predictions for IT Organizations and Users, 2010 and Beyond: A New Balance

1.82bn1.78b

n

We’re addicted to them…

…they’re not called

Crackberries for nothing!

But why the app

and not the browser?

Hardware specific apps are more tightly integrated into the device than a browser

“But a browser can do some / all of those things”

So hardware integration can be achieved in a browser – but its rare.

Mobile web usability [generally] sucks:

•Small screens•Awkward input•Download delays•Poor site design

So says Jakob Nielsen…and he knows a thing or two about usability!!!

Apps mitigate a lot of these issues

But if the sites are properly designed for the mobile “touch web” then they can be used in browsers

Taptu provide mobile touch web search functions

This data seems to suggest that the mobile “touch” web is going to outpace the development of apps…but is it really?

Data hungry functions are better suited to an app environment.

If e-mail could be adequately handled in the browser, why do Blackberries exist (and command such share)?

Ummm…

Apps are less connection dependent

Instapaper

Jamie Oliver

Wired

Ever lost these?

Search is stupid – you know what you want, you just don’t know where to find it

The browser is predicated on the idea of seeking what you want on the web.

But we are moving from a search-based web to a web that delivers what we want based on our expressed and implied preferences

Pulse News Reader is an example of the next generation of apps delivering info to us rather than us having to go and find it

Siri in the US is an app that you can speak to ask it to do things – like a PA

•“What’s a good sushi restaurant near here?”•“Book me a table please Siri”

But you can do that stuff in the browser too

Yes, of course. But these apps

are just not being

developed for the mobile web.

Why is that?

Supply-side factors

An almost limitless supply of ad inventory pushes advertising CPMs through the floor and makes it difficult to make money from content online

Mr Murdoch has long struggled to make money from internet content – so now he’s locked his away behind a paywall

Content = Free

Why?

Why should publishers produce content for [almost] free?

…and the end of free

But now Apple have created the ultimate paywall…

…and so publishers celebrate and

embrace apps for their ability to

monetise content

To date:

10,000 iPad apps

225,000 apps in Apple’s App Store

5bn downloads +

50,000 Google Android apps

And that’s without advertising revenue…which is coming

And that’s before this lot get in on the act…which they already are

And the big boys are gearing up to take their advertising dollars off them too…

$10 CPM

AND

$2 CPCMinimum investment $1m

Source: Wall Street Journal

60% is going back to the app developer!

Which isn’t going to help the mobile web development market place much

<insert mournful eerie wind sound here>

Hang on – I saw a Google logo back there. Their whole business model is predicated on the searchable web

Yup, Google have got a substantial vested interest in continuing to perpetuate a searchable browser-based web

But they can afford to bet on all the

horses in this race. Wouldn’t you if you

were Google?

The stock market also give us some insight into the way this is going to go?

Markets factor future profit expectations into stock prices and market capitalisations

“Nom nom nom”

But it is down to the product…

Or?

5bn+ downloads

It’s both, but undoubtedly the App Store is helping Apple’s market capitalisation

“The global market for mobile applications is expected to more than triple from just under $10 billion at the end of 2009 to $32 billion in 2015”

“In April 2009, Apple had 35% of the download market but only 1% of the mobile device install base”

An Apple dictatorship cannot be good for the Web

I’m a fanboy but couldn’t

agree more…

But it’s not just Apple

100,000 activations

per day

50,000 apps in the

Android store

Another big Google bet

Google TV will leverage the Android Marketplace

Another bigger bet still

And hardware manufacturers are

jumping aboard too

Samsung’s new range of 3D TVs

come with their own app store

And there are a lot of TVs in the world

So, that’s the argument from both sides…

Conclusion

Volume

Price

Demand

Supply

Ultimately the laws of consumer demand and content supply will determine which is the preferred method for accessing internet content

My prediction

The results

A parting thought

What is the browser if not an

app?

Enjoy CannesJon Wade – Digital Strategy Director, UK

jon.wade@wunderman.comTwitter: @oo0x0oo