application of risk assessment in drr planning in indonesia (anas lutfi)
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APPLICATION OF RISK ASSESMENTIN RISK REDUCTION PLANNINGN RISK REDUCTION PLANNING
ASEAN REGIONAL RISK ASSESMENT SCOOPINGWORKSHOP 11 13 OCTOBER 2011ORKSHOP , 11 13 OCTOBER 2011
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KONDISIKONDISI TEKTONIK INDONESIATEKTONIK INDONESIA
2
Potensial Earthquacke , Tsunami , Landslide
Active volcanoes : 128 in Indonesia
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ECONOMY LOSSES
No Type Disaster
Direct Not Direct Total
1Tsunami Aceh & Nias, 26 Des
2.92 1.53 4.45
2 Flu Burung (2004 -2005) 0.6 - 0.6
3 Merapi explosion April 06 -TAD- -TAD-20,000 orang
mengungsi
4 Gempa Yogyakarta 27 Mei 06 2.5 0.7 3.1
5 Mud Flow Sidoarjo 29 Mei 06 1.2 1.8 3
sunam angan aran u . . .
7 Flood Jabodetabek 0.7 - 0.7
8 Earth uacke South Jawa --- 0.8
9 Earthquacke West Sumatera -- - 2.2
TOTAL (Des 2004-Oct 2009), especilally large disasaterUS $ 15 Billion
(Rp.150 T)
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Bahaya/
Pemicu/ Trigger
Hazards
Risiko/ BENCANA/disaRisk ster
Vulnerability/Kerentanan
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Gov. Inisiative
Identifikasi Risiko (H/V)
Objective setting
Def.ofTargetRisk
ObjSettingforRiskManagement
Analisis Risiko Dev.Risk Scenario
Risk Planninge ng s r er aan
FormulationofMasterplan
Revision
Risk
Transfer
Risk
Prevention
Risk
ReductionRisk
Acceptance
Monitoring/Re-Examination
VerificationofDM
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Hope#1NoRisk
Hope#3
NoRiskHope#5
RiskStillAcsess HumanPre are
Hope#2
RiskDecrease Hope#4RiskDecrease
Insurrance
DISASTER
RISK
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Istablish mechanism coordination low consept forDRR
Integration consept to Development Planning Increase changing and management information Promote Education and public awarness Partner development with stakeholders and publicpartiscipationartiscipation Advocation
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METHODOLOGY
Compiler Primary and Secondery
Profil ProfilProfil Ca acit
pace ro oc a - conomy n ras ruc ure
Geography
GeologyHidrolo
Historical
DemographySosial Profile
Area Bulited
TransportationEner
Local Goverrnment
NationalGovernment
ClimateEcology
Culture ProfileEconomy
Water flow manageResidu manage
Private SectorCommunity
Threat Map Vulnaribility Map Capacity Map
Risk Map
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USE OFSE OFCOMPILERCOMPILER PROPROCCESESSSCOMPILERCOMPILER PROPROCCESESSSCOMPILERCOMPILER ::COMPILERCOMPILER :: USE OFASSESSMENTRESULTS ANDMAPUSE OFASSESSMENTRESULTS ANDMAP
1.1. Analysis of the level ofdetail
2.Minimum Scale
1.1. Analysis of the level ofdetail
2.Minimum Scale
FREEFREE AKADEMIAKADEMICYCY ,3td,3td,,etcetc ((but should thegovernmentresponsibility)
FREEFREE AKADEMIAKADEMICYCY ,3td,3td,,etcetc ((but should thegovernmentresponsibility)
1:250.000
3. Number of LifeExposed
1:250.000
3. Number of LifeExposed
..
LOCALGOVERNMENTLOCALGOVERNMENT SYNCHRONIZATIONYNCHRONIZATIONGOVERNMENTRESPONSIBILITYGOVERNMENTRESPONSIBILITY
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POTENSIAL DISASTER MAPPING (H)
ANALYSIS OF INTENSITYNALYSIS OFMAINPARAMETER MAPS HAS ON
SNI
PROBABILITY
BASE OF
HISTORICAL DATA
NOTE:MINIMALPARTISIPATORY FROM
ANAL YSISMETHOD
CLASSIFICATION
(3 CLASS)
WEIGHTING PARTICIPATORY
GROUNDCHECK RY FROM
LOCALWISDOM ,PROFF AND
PARAMETEROUTPUT
HAZARD MAP
BASE ON 3td
CLASS
MAP SCALE
1 :250.000 (
PROVINCE MAP
MAP SCALE1:50.000(SUMATERA)
LOCAL GOVTO DISTRIC MAP) 1:25.000 (JAWA &NTT)
MAP SCALE1:10.000(SIMEULUE)
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INDICATOR THREAT MAP NON SNINO THREAT NON SNI INDICATOR1. TSUNAMI 1. ELEVASI (TOPOGRAFI, HIGH INUNDATION)
2. BATHYMETRI
3. COASTAL VEGETASION (SUPPORTING)
(USE TSUNAMI RISK ASSESSMENT GUIDE TRA)
2. COASTAL EROSIAN 1. HIGH WAVE
2. MORFOLOGI PANTAI
3. BATHYMETRIC
4. SEA FLOW
5. COASTAL VEGETASION
3. DROUGHT 1. METEOROLOGY RAINFALL
2. GROUNG WATER BASIN
3. PROSENTASTION COVERED VEGETATION PER RIVER FLOW
REGION
. .
SATELITE)
2. DROUGH INDEX
3. DISTANCE FROM SETTLEMENTS AND ROAD
. .
2. LANDUSE (OPEN SPACE)
3. RAINFALL
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VULNERABILITY MAP (V)
ANALYSIS OF MAINPARAMETER
SOCIAL CULTURE
ECONOMY PHYSICAL
ANAL YSIS METHOD WEIGHTING /SCORING PARTISIPATORY FOR EACHINDICATOR PARAMETER
PARAMETER OUTPUT VULNERABILITY MAP IN VARIOUS CLASSES (3 CLASS)
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INDICATOR VULNERABILITY MAP(V)
No. GROUPS DATA RESOURCEo. DATA RESOURCEI SOCIAL CULTURE
1. Population Density
2. Population Sensitivity:
BPS?
Gender
Head of family base a gender
Defect
Podes (online Simpadu)
Can proxy
Susenas
age groups Susenas
II ECONOMY
1. Rice fields
2. plantation
3. Farmland
4. fish ponds
Contribution of GDP per sector (13 sectors)
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INDIKATOR PETA KERENTANAN(V)
No KELOMPOK SUMBER DATAo. KELOMPOK SUMBER DATAIII. PHYSICAL
1.home
Podes
.
3. critical facilities Survei lapangan
IV. ECOLOGY
1. protected forest
2. natural forests
3. Mangrove forest (mangrove)
.
5. bush
Note: for detailment according with needen local area
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BOBOT UNTUK INDIKATOR PETA
An in Kebakaran E idemi/
V Gempa TsunamiGunung
ApiPuting
Beliung
Keker ingan Banji r Longsor Abras iKebakaran
HutanGedung/
Pemukiman
Gagal
Tehnologi
Konflik
Sosial
Wabah
PenyakitSOCIAL
CULTURE 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 30 40 40 40 40
PHYSICAL 30 25 25 30 0 25 25 25 10 30 25 25 25
LECOLOGY
0 10 10 0 30 10 10 10 40 0 10 10 10
Note:
summaries.
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CAPACITY MAP (C)
ANALYSIS OFMAINPARAMETER
PRIORITY AND INDICATOR HFA
ANAL YSISMETHOD
1. COMPILING DATA SECONDER
2. SCORING PARTISIPATORY (FGD)
PARAMETEROUTPUT
SCORE/LOCAL CAPACITY
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RISK MAP (R)
PARAMETERARAMETERANALISISUTAMA
, ,
METODE OVERLAY GISANALISISPARAMETEROUTPUT
CAPASITY ON
VARIOUS
MAP SCALE
1 :250.000
MAP SCALE
1:50.000
1. ACTION MAPS
FOR LOCAL
CLASS (3
CLASS)
(PROVINCE TO
DISTRICT
SCALE)
MAP SCALE1:25.000
(JAWA & NTT)
2. SYNCRONIZE
NAT-LOCAL
POLICY
Catt: untuk Peta RisikoKabuten/Kota tingkatkedetilannya sampai
1:10.000(SIMEULUE)
Catt: Simelue punya
.
FOR
COMMUNITY
desa Catt: Simelue punyadata dengan skalabesar
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Region Criteria Factor H Factor V Factor CA High risk Every year Number Not yet of
:: Tabular
oo oo
highest 0.7 2.00 m
lon time
person
threatment1.000 pers
losses R .
Not yet of DMRegulation
Not et of
coverred >
10 days
ect
100 M
ecology
damage
hazard map
Not yet of of
socialization
planning
ect
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PROVINSI BENGKULU
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EARTHQUAKE MAP
n ca or:
Skale of MMI
Factor:
Condision soil and
rock Condision fault,
structure geology
Sumber: Kertapati, 1999
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TSUNAMI
n cator:
Tsunami Intensity
,
Factor:
,
Landuse
coastal
Sumber: data MCRMP
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VOLCANO MAP
I dik tndikator: Volcanic Eruption IntencityFactor:
Historical eruption
Sumber: ESDM 2008
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TORNADO
Indicatorndicator Fujita Tornado Damage Scale
Faktor: Kelembapan
Open coverred area
Sumber: BMKG
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DROUGHT
Indicator: SPI Value Scale
Factor: Rainfall
Type soil
Landuse
Sumber: UNEP
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FLOOD
Indictor: Frequency FLood
Factor: Rainfall
Used land
Slope
Wide region rivers
Sumber: Konsep RTRW 2009
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LANDSLIDE
Indikator: Freqeuency Landslide
Factor: Slope
Type soil
Landuse
Canopi
Sumber: ESDM 2008
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FOREST FIRES
I di tndicator:
FrequencyFactor:
Landuse
Factor of fires easily
Sumber: UNEP 2006
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RISK INDEX
KABUPATEN SKOR KELAS RAWAN RANKINGNASIONALKOTA PEKANBARU 70 TINGGI 146
INDRAGIRI HULU 61 TINGGI 201
INDRAGIRI HILIR 57 TINGGI 229
KAMPAR 56 TINGGI 241
PELALAWAN 53 TINGGI 262
ROKAN HULU 50 TINGGI 288
ROKAN HILIR 46 TINGGI 311
KUANTAN SENGINGI 43 TINGGI 346
SIAK 37 TINGGI 385KOTA DUMAI 37 TINGGI 386
BENGKALIS 35 TINGGI 397
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CHALLENGES
NOT ALL LOCAL LEVEL GOV. HAVE
DM Regulation
Hazard ma Socialization Planning
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THANK YOU
Direktorat Pengurangan Risiko Bencana
DEPUTIPENCEGAHANDANKESIAPSIAGAAN
Graha 55,Jl.TanahAbang IINo.55JakartaPusat
www.bnpb.go.id
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