aof sugar outlook - usda€¦ · balance sheets production (mt) 200m 150m 100m map 2021/22 2021/22...

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AOF SUGAR OUTLOOKFebruary 2021Presented by WWW.CZAPP.COM

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No.11 MARKET PRICE

2

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No.11 FORWARD CURVE

3

12

12.5

13

13.5

14

14.5

15

15.5

16

16.5

17

Mar'21 May'21 Jul'21 Oct'21 Mar'22 May'22 Jul'22 Oct'22 Mar'23 May'23 Jul'23 Oct'23

c/lb

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2020/21 BALANCE

4

2.9m tonnes

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RAW SUGAR EXPORTERS 2020-2021

5

2020 2021

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RAW SUGAR EXPORTERS 2022

6

Thailand to Return

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BRAZIL – MAX SUGAR PRODUCTION AGAIN?

7

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BRL SUGAR RETURNS

8

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BRAZIL CS PRODUCTION FORECAST

9

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BRAZIL CROP RISKS? – DRY WEATHER

10

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THAILAND – WILL THE CROP BOUNCE BACK

11

4mmt

But Cane availability is a big question mark:

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CAN THE EU ALSO REBOUND?

12

We think so -

But yields will be the big question:

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EU ?

13

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KEY TAKE AWAYS

14

• We expect the market to remain in a small surplus next year• This is expecting good crops across 4 key markets: Brazil, India, Thailand, and EU.• There are significant questions for all these crops

• Brazilian Cane quality• Thai Cane volume is an unknown• EU Yields• Indian monsoon

• However uncertainty is likely to remain for a while as Covid-19 disruptions continue to affect logistics and market sentiment.