andrill webinar slides webinar slides

Perspectives of a warmingworld from frozen places

David Harwood dharwood1@unl.eduDept. of Earth and Atmospheric SciencesANDRILL Science Management OfficeUniversity of Nebraska-Lincoln

Documents

Tree rings

Ice cores Sediments

Archives of Climate Change

Elements of ClimateChange System and Feedbacks

CRYOSPHERE

LITHOSPHEREBIOSPHERE

HYDROSPHERE

CO2

CH4

H2O

What will the future be?

What will help us predict this?

New York region in the past.

Has this happened before?

20,000 years ago

4 million years ago

Long Island

Numbers are 1,000 yearssince glacial retreat

Timing of the ice sheet retreat

Greenland & Antarctic ice core records

oxygen isotopeshydrogen isotopesdustmethanecarbon dioxide

annual layers of snowfall

Gas bubbles in the ice…

…trap the ancient atmosphere

ICE CORES drilled through the ice sheet

Vostok Ice Core

EPICA Ice Core

WAIS Ice Core

Ice Core CO2

280

230

180

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Vostok ice core, Antarctica

Ice Core temperature

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Vostok ice core, Antarctica

CO2 & temperature

280

230

180

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Vostok ice core, Antarctica 384TODAY

Present CO2 levels

Projected CO2 levelsdouble CO2 by 2100

Shape of the Earth’s orbit

Tilt of the Earth’s axis

Position of the Earth seasonally

100,000 year cycle

41,000 year cycle

19,000 & 21,000 year cycles

What controls the ‘heartbeat’ of climate change?

i c e

c o

r e

s

s e

d i m

e n

t c

o r

e s

Integration of geologicaldata with the testing power of numerical models in supercomputers.

A lot is learned from‘failed’ model runs….

… e.g. ice sheet sensitivity to climate forcing and feedbacks.

Deep Sea Drilling Project

1972

CO2 and temperature proxies

after Zachos et al., 2008

from Pagani et al., 2008

after Crowley and Kim, 1995

R. Levy ‘09

Mid-Miocene Climatic Optimum

Onset of Antarctic glaciation

Millions of years ago

Long-term Cenozoic climate recorddecline in temperaturepunctuated warm and cold phases

Onset of Arctic glaciation

Note time scale change today

CO2 levels

IPCC AR4

ANDRILLFUTURE

TIMETARGET

Which of the Antarctic Ice Sheets were activeIn the past climate cycles?

Will they be active in a future warmer Earth?

Stratigraphic drilling for ice sheet history

from a proximal marine shelf setting

to reveal the pace and magnitude of change,

and to test climate sensitivity through

data and numerical modeling integration.

The Time Machine

Today

Antarctic ice ages 40 million year record of climate and ice volume variation. How often? How fast?

The past is a guide to the future…

4

Future? Distant future?

ANtarctic geological DRILLing

www.andrill.org

Goals:

Recover high-quality Antarctic rock and sediment cores;

Interpret paleoenvironmental changes;

Construct a Cenozoic history of the cryosphere;

photo C. Millan

www.andrill.org

Drilling systemMinerals industry rig

Diamond bit coring

Wireline core recovery

Three sizes of drill-string

98% core recovery

Source: Chicago Tribune

850 m water depth

1285 m sediment column

98% recovery

MIS Project

85 m ice thickness

Victoria Land Basin Transantarctic Mountains

W. AntEast Antarctica

MIS and SMS Project drillsites

McMurdo Sound region

MIS SMS CRP

CRP

Lucia Simion

a 9-meter core run

Lucia Simion

Angie Fox

Sediments deposited beneath the ice shelf

Angie Fox

Distal diatom-rich muds - - little to no ice is present

Antarctic diatoms - - one celled algaeengines of the Antarctic food chain

Angie Fox

Sediments beneath a grounded ice sheet

photo: R. Powell

6.48MaDiatomite

ANDRILL McMurdo Ice Shelf Project upper 600 mbsf0-100 m 100-200 m 200-300 m 300-400 m 400-500 m 500-600 m

40 glacial-interglacial cyclesin the last 5 million years

Data and Model Integration ANDRILL MIS

5-6 meters sea-level

rise

~ 60 meters sea-level

rise

If these ice sheets were to melt…sea-level would rise

Greenland Ice Sheet 5 to 6 meters more… IPCC AR5

any questions, please...

Where to Drill Next?

ANDRILL Coulman High ProjectFuture Drilling:

Effect of higher bedrock topography in Eocene (Wilson and Luyendyk 2009; WL09):

Ice models by D. Pollard

After Studinger & Barrett (2009)

More ice predicted at E-O

ISAES XI Edinburgh

Coulman High Drilling Targets

Key Science Drivers:1. Uncover the evolution and behavior of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet in a high CO2 world (> 600 ppmv)2. Constrain West Antarctic geography through time to improve ice sheet models

AND CH-2 AND CH-1

GREENHOUSE WORLD CO2 > 1000 ppmv

CO2 > 600 ppmv

> ~20 Ma

> ~30 Ma

WEST EASTWater depth 843 m Water depth 814 m

Palmer line 0301 1A0; Interpretation by Sorlien, Luyendyk, D. Wilson; UCSB

ANDRILL’s Education and Outreach Program

Louise HuffmanANDRILL Coordinator of Education and Outreach

www.andrill.org/educationlhuffman@andrill.org

2006Front row: Kate Pound, Julia Dooley, Robin Frisch-Gleason, Louise

Huffman

Back row: Joanna Hubbard, Rainer Lehmann, Bob Williams, Ken Mankoff, Graziano Scotto di Clemente

ARISE Teams (ANDRILL

Research Immersion for Science Educators)

2008

Shakira Brown-Petit

2007

Vanessa Miller, Matteo Cattadori, Julian Thomson,

Betty Trummel, Alexander Siegmund, LuAnn Dahlman

Teaching Essential Principle 5:Our understanding of the climate system is improved through observations, theoretical studies, and modeling.

How can I use this principle in my teaching?

• The most direct method to overcome students' misunderstanding or phobia of science is to immerse them directly in an interesting and tangible scientific question.

How Does Melting Ice Affect Sea Level

What if the Ice Shelves Melted?

Dead Diatoms Do Tell Tales

• Build model sediment cores with sand and glass beads to represent diatoms

• Examine types, numbers and conditions of the different beads

• Draw conclusions about the climates indicated by their evidence

Access to the tools scientists use

Antarctica’s Climate SecretsA resource package for teaching climate change

www.andrill.org/education

•5 Themes

•Resources to teach climate change: o 200+ page activity book o 5 posters o videos

•Learning through hands-on activities and models

•Kids become teachers/scientists: “Flexhibit” model (FLEXible exHIBITS)

Flexhibits—Students as Teachers

Posters available in many languages

Available Languages:

•Arabic (posters and activities)•French•German•Italian (book and videos, too)•Maori/New Zealand English•Spanish (poster activities)•and soon Russian

Environmental Literacy Framework (ELF) Materials

5 Units—Climate Change: A System of Systems

Systems or “spheres”:AtmosphereBiosphereGeosphereHydrosphere/

CryosphereEnergy– as the driver of

interactions within and between

the spheres

Questions?

Louise Huffman

lhuffman@andrill.org

www.andrill.org/education