analysis of sme credit rating by use of big data and ... 4_naoyuki yoshino.pdf · analysis of sme...

Analysis of SME Credit Rating by use of Big Data

and finance for start ups

Naoyuki YoshinoDean, Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)

Professor Emeritus, Keio University, Japan

nyoshino@adbi.org, yoshino@econ.keio.ac.jp

Farhad Taghizadeh-HesaryAssistant Professor, Keio University, Japan

Visiting Professor, University of Tokyo

Analysis of SMEs in Asia

1, Importance of SMEs in Asia

2, Credit Guarantee to SMEs

3, Collection of SME data

4, Optimal credit guarantee ratio

5, Hometown Investment Trust

funds for start up businesses2

3

SMEs Share in Employment (%)

Borrower, Lender and Market

4

BorrowerSMEs

Individuals

LenderBanks

MicroCredit

Market

Information Asymmetry

Especially SME market

Access to Finance by SMEs and

Large Firms in Japan

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Barriers for SMEs in Accessing Financial

Institutions, Collateral,Higher rate

6Source: ADB–OECD study on enhancing financial accessibility for SMEs: Lessons from recent crises.

Mandaluyong City, Philippines: Asian Development Bank, 2013

Small and Medium Sized Enterprise

(SME)

Toyota Honda, Seven Eleven, Nintendo

HONDA was not supported by government.

Mr. HONDA worked at SME as a repairman.

HONDA could not borrow money from Local

Bank. Mitsubishi-bank made loans to

HONDA.

How to finance start-up business ?

Seven-eleven, President ITO7

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Optimal Credit Guarantee Ratio

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Cluster Analysis of Banks

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Calculated Optimal Credit Guarantee ratios

15/03/2017 Yoshino - Taghizadeh 23

Group 1 of banks: 0.775

Group 2 of banks: 0.683

the optimal credit guarantee ratio in our model depends

on three groups of factors:

1. macroeconomic variables

2. government policies,

3. banking profile.

These two groups consist of various variables

including:price of land, price of stock, gross domestic

product (GDP), money supply, actual SME loans, fixed

demand for loans, deposit interest rate, expected GDP,

marginal increase of nonperforming loans by increase

of additional loans, desired SME loans, desired default

risk ratio of loan, weight for stabilizing the SME loans,

weight for reducing the nonperforming loan ratio, and

financial profile of banks.

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Possible SolutionsStart up businesses, farmers

Hometown InvestmentTrust Funds : Springer--------------------------------------------------

A Stable Way to Supply Risk Capital

Yoshino, Naoyuki; Kaji Sahoko (Eds.)2013,

Japan, CambodiaVietnam, Peru, Mongolia

Access to Digital Technology

Internet On-line trade

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Start ups

Farmers

Innovators

InternetCompany

Advertize

Consumers

FSA： registration

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Investment in SMEs and start up businesses

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利子率の違いによる借入比率と返済期間の関係(平均消費性向85%、所得伸び率2.89％）

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29

返済期間(年）

初期借入比率/所得比率

5%金利

10%

15%

20%25%

29.2%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%60%

65%

70%

Interest rate and lending term

to avoid debt overhang

L

o

a

n

/

S

A

L

E

S

Terms of Loans

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