alternative energy sources
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Alternative Energy Sources
San Jose State UniversityFX Rongère
January 2008
Introduction
The Time is now
San Jose State UniversityFX Rongère
January 2008
Renewable Energies: the Time is now
What has changed?1. Global Warming2. China and emerging countries3. Technology4. Risk Management5. Oil and Natural Gas tensions
Renewable Energies in power mix
Stronger driver
Weaker driver
1. Global Warming
Global Warming
A wise assumption
Wikipedia.orghttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Instrumental_Temperature_Record.png Dan Cayan
ETCC Summit 2007luncheon_cayan.pdf
Global Warming Evidences
Glacier retreat:
Whitechuck Glacier in North Cascades National Park has retreated 1.2 miles since 1973
1973 2006
Global warming impact in California
Source: CEC 500-2006-077
Global warming impact in California
Potential impact in California
Dan CayanETCC Summit 2007luncheon_cayan.pdf
Source: CEC 500-2006-077
Global Warming
Sector contributions in the USA
Ag & Forestry, 8.0%
Other, 8.4%
Electric Power, 19.6%
Transportation, 41.2%
Industrial, 22.8%
2. China and Emerging Countries
China is building 2 large power plants per week
China and emerging countries
Carbon intensity of developed economies
$ 50
,000
GDP/c
/y
$ 25,000 GDP/c/y
$ 12,500 GDP/c/y
Source: CECIntensity (Tons of CO2 per 1,000 US$ )
China and emerging countries
Carbon intensity of India and China
$ 12,500 GDP/c/y
China (2007)
China passed the USA for CO2 emissions in 2006 with 6,200 MM Tons/year
Intensity (Tons of CO2 per 1,000 US$ )
China and Emerging Countries
Most of the CO2 emission increase is due to developing countries
Carbon foot print
Action is required
3. Technologies
Technologies
Major technology improvements
Wind turbines
Bigger is better
Growth of wind turbines
Technologies
Solar cells: efficiency is everything
4. Risk Management
Risk Management
Electricity generation has moved from optimization to risk management
Hig
h i
nv
estm
ent
cost
-
Hig
h o
per
atio
n c
os
t
Time of operation per year
Base line
Peakers
Traditional portfolio
Risk Management
Typical cost variability
Investment cost ($/kW)
Ope
ratio
n co
st (
$/kW
h) Gas
Coal
Nuclear Hydro
Wind
Solar
5. Oil & Gas Tensions
From: www.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/oceans-habitat/oceans/oap-pao/img/hudsonrig.jpg
Oil and Gas Tensions
Oil Price
1 barrel = 42 Gallons
January 3rd, 2008Oil Price $100.05
Oil and Gas Tensions
Dollar currency changeDollar/Euro value since 2001
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
J an-01 May-02 Oct-03 Feb-05 Jul-06 Nov-07
Dol
lar/
Euro
Oil and Gas Tensions
Crude oil peak
Crude Oil Peak
Non OPEC countries
Oil and Gas Tension
Independence and security
California Petroleum Resources
Oil and Gas Tensions
Natural Gas Price Volatility
Renewable in Energy mix
Electricity generation in the world
Power Generation in the USA
U.S. Power PlantsThe size of each circlerepresents the quantity of emissions in 2002
24 million tons
15 million tons 4 million tons Coal Gas Oil
Source: MJ Bradley and Associates
Nuclear19%
Hydro7%
Coal50%
Gas19%
Petrol3%
Renewables2%
USA Power Generation
California Energy Mix
California Gross System Power for 2006 (GWh)
Fuel Type In-State NW Imports SW Imports GSP GSP PercentageCoal 17,573 5,467 23,195 46,235 15.70%Large Hydro 43,088 10,608 2,343 56,039 19.00%Natural Gas 106,968 2,051 13,207 122,226 41.50%Nuclear 31,959 556 5,635 38,150 12.90%Renewables 30,514 1,122 579 32,215 10.90%
Biomass 5,735 430 120 6,285 2.10%Geothermal 13,448 0 260 13,708 4.70%Small Hydro 5,788 448 0 6,236 2.10%
Solar 616 616 0.20%Wind 4,927 244 199 5,370 1.80%
TOTAL 230,102 19,804 44,959 294,865 100.00%
Source: CEC http://www.energy.ca.gov/electricity/gross_system_power.html
Energy mix today
Emerging Countries
India
China
China Power Mix - 2003
Gas and Coal 74%
Hydro24%
Nuclear2%
Renewable Portfolio Standards
28 states have RPS
*Four states, Illinois, Missouri, Virginia, and Vermont, have set voluntary goals for adopting renewable energy instead of portfolio standards with binding targets.
State Amount Year
Arizona 15% 2025
California 20% 2010
Colorado 20% 2020
Connecticut 23% 2020
District of Columbia 11% 2022
Delaware 20% 2019
Hawaii 20% 2020
Iowa 105 MW
Illinois* 25% 2017
Massachusetts 4% 2009
Maryland 9.50% 2022
Maine 10% 2017
Minnesota 25% 2025
Missouri* 11% 2020
State Amount Year
Montana 15% 2015
New Hampshire 16% 2025
New Jersey 22.50% 2021
New Mexico 20% 2020
Nevada 20% 2015
New York 24% 2013
Oregon 25% 2025
Pennsylvania 18% 2020
Rhode Island 15% 2020
Texas 5,880 MW 2015
Vermont* 10% 2013
Virginia* 12% 2022
Washington 15% 2020
Wisconsin 10% 2015
Renewable Portfolio Standard
Source: http://www.eere.energy.gov/states/maps/renewable_portfolio_states.cfm#map
Fast growing Renewable Energy Sector
Wind is booming in the USA
Fast growing Renewable Energy Sector
1999
2007
Total 16,819 MWAs 12/31/07
Source: awea
World wide
Solar is booming
Cumulative Solar Power Worldwide
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Cum
ula
tive
Inst
alle
d P
V p
ow
er
(MW
)
Ethanol is booming
Historic U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
1980
19811982
19831984
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
1993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
2006
Million
s of
Gal
lons
Ethanol plants (2006)
Biodiesel is booming
Historic U.S. Biodiesel Production
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Million
s of
Gal
lons
Bio-diesel plants (2006)
CleanTech Venture Capital
Energy VC investments in North America
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
Inv
es
tme
nt
in $
M
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
En
erg
y v
s T
ota
l
Renewable Energy: the Time is now
“The use of vegetables oils for engine fuels may seem insignificant today but such oils may become in the course of the time as important as the petroleum and the coal tar products of the present time”
“The fuel of the future is going to come from fruit like sumac out by the road, or from apples, weeds, sawdust-almost everything”
“I’d put my money on the sun and solar energy. What a source of power! I hope we don’t have to wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle that”
Rudolph Diesel 1912
Henry Ford 1925
Thomas Edison 1931
Even if it was not the Time then
References “Our Changing Climate – Assessing the risk for California”,
CEC-500-2006-077 July 2006 www.awea.org www.ethanolrfa.org www.nbb.org “2006 Net System Power Report”, CEC-300-2007-007 April
2007 http://www.eia.doe.gov/
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