alaro in romania

ALARO in Romania

Doina Banciu, Otilia DiaconuRomanian Meteorological Administration

∆x=6.5 km240 x 240 points49 vertical levelsLinear gridLambert projection2TL-SL ∆t=240s

ALARO ROMANIA

CY35T1

operational since 10 February 2010

1.09. 2011: bugfix of February 2011 - SLHD not touched Not specific tuning for cloudiness and convection

CY36T1

CY37T1

Hydrostatic mode No data asimilation No SURFEX

implemented (including bugfix of February 2011; in test

under implementation

ALARO VERIFICATION

Statistical scores: T2m, V10m, MSLP

- annual average for 2011 - average for 5 months 2012 - comparison with ALADIN, the back up solution - bias maps

Precipitation: subjective evaluation Observations 160 surface synop stations 1000 precipitation measuremnt stations

2m Temperature

Bias• cold seazon : negative, espeacilly during night (+ 24, +48 h) ALARO is better than ALADIN ; exception February 2012 • warm seazon: positive ALARO is better than ALADIN during day (+36); ALADIN is better during night

2011 2012

RMSE: • a bit smaller values during the warm season almost anytime ALARO is better than ALADIN but very small diferences

+ 24

+ 36

+ 48

23 May 2012

2Tm bias

6h precipitation

00+24

00+36

30→36 h

18→24 h

10m Wind speed2011 2012

• Bias: generaly negative during night and cold season• Small differences between ALARO and ALDIN

+24

+36

+48

23 May 2012

00+24

00+36

10m wind speed bias

2011 2012

MSLP

• Generally negative bias• ALARO has better bias and rmse then ALADIN• Singular behaviour : April !!!

+24

+36

+48

25 May 2012

24 May 2012

Mean sea level pressure bias

00+24

Precipitation

Forecasters feedback: good ALARO behaviour, better than ALADIN ALARO is very good warning situation, being considered the most reliable

However there are still problems:

- the diurnal cycle - the displacement speed of the mezoscale convective systems - maximum value of the heavy precipitation - the are of light preciptitation too spead

May 11 May 12 May 13

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012

May 14 May 15 May 16

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012

May 17 May 18 May 19

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012

!

May 21 May 22 May 23

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012

May 24 May 25 May 26

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012

!

May 27 May 28 May 29

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012

! !!

May 30 May 31 June 1

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012

June 2 June 3 June 4

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012

!

June 5 June 6 June 7

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012

!

June 8 June 9 June 10

Observations

ALARO forecast: 24 h cumulated precipitation

2012 !! !