alaro-0 at zamg experiences, verification, identified problems, …

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ALARO-0 at ZAMGExperiences, verification, identified problems, ….

Christoph Wittmann

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Content

Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG

Experiences / verification / identified problems Precipitation Low Stratus Temperature

Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG

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History

Short history: 09/2007ALARO-0 (minus 3MT) operational (9.6km) 04/2009full ALARO-0 operational (9.6km) 05/2009start of daily ALARO-0 4.8km run (00 UTC) 2010 verification, tests, etc. 06/2010 implementation of CANARI surface assimilation 09/2010ALARO-0 4.8km coupled to IFS 10/2010name for model version: “ALARO5-AUSTRIA” 01/2011ALARO5-AUSTRIA running 4 times / day 03/2011ALARO5-AUSTRIA announced as operational model at ZAMG 09/2012 (?) NEC-SX8R switched off at ZAMG = end of 9.6km ALARO-0 version

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Implementation of ALARO at ZAMG

Operational model at ZAMG:

“ALARO5-AUSTRIA”

resolution: 4.8km / 60L runs: 00 / 06 / 12 / 18hforecast range: 72horo./grid: mean / lineartime step: 180sinitialization: IFS (3D)

CANARI (2D)physics: ALARO-0, SK schemedynamics: hydrostaticavailability: 4 hours after init time

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ALADIN-LAEF operational + upgrade settings

Ensemble size 16+1

Horizontal resolution 18 km / 11 km

Vertical resolution 37 layer / 45 layer

Runs/Day 2 (00, 12 UTC)

Forecast range 60 h / 72h

Output-Frequency 1h

Model time step 720s / 400s

Coupling-Model (time-lagged)

ECMWF-EPS (SV Vectors, first 16

members)

Coupling-Update 6h

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Multiphysics

Targets on: Microphysics Convection (shallow + deep), Turbulence Cellular automaton approach included (2 members) Radiation (radiative cloud condensate) Screening level diagnostics (T2m, RH2m, 10m gusts) … never ending story (ideas+input needed …) TOUCANS and other new developments are always welcome

New version bringsnice improvements (esp. skill scores for precip.)

ALARO physicsALADIN-Fr physics

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Content

Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG

Experiences / verification / identified problems Precipitation Low Stratus Temperature

Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG,…

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Precipitation

Experiences/Feedback triggering of convection over orography too early (nothing

new) overestimation of (severe) convective precipitation over

orography underestimation of (stratiform) precipitation over flatland

areas (e.g. northeastern part of Austria)

E-SUITE launched end of April (using retuned microphysics, work by Radmila), should become operational within next weeks: Nice improvements for 2 of the 3 mentioned points …

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Winter case I

winter case: frontal zone approaching alps

ALARO 6.5km ALARO 4.8km ALARO 9.6km

IFS COSMO-EU

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Winter case II

winter case: frontal zone approaching alps

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Summer case II

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Triggering of convection

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Triggering of convection (COSMO vs. ALARO)

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Severe convection I

reports from regional centers in the south of Austria:overestimation of severe convection

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Severe convection II

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Severe convection III

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Verification

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Low stratus

Experiences/Feedback: ALARO5-AUSTRIA with better performance than IFS,

COSMO(-EU) …. but just when using empirical subinversion scheme (SK)

In flatland areas performance is quite good stratus in “resolved” valleys and basins still not sufficiently

predicted

21/04/23ALARO-1 Working days

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Beispiel Hochnebel I 21/04/23Synoptikertreffen

IFS ALARO5

ALARO10 MSG VIS

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21/04/23Synoptikertreffen

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Verification low stratus Vienna

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Temperatures

Experiences/feedback: Current PBL / SBL / surface representation with problems

create a mixed layer in winter time (cold daytime bias) general cold daytime bias during summer best performance during spring / autumn better performance during night

21/04/23ALARO-1 Working days

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Temperature 21/04/23ALARO-1 Working days

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2m temperature verification Vienna

time series 00+27h AE/BIAS ALARO

time series 00+36h AE/BIAS ALARO

during night during day

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Content

Use of ALARO in operational applications at ZAMG

Experiences / verification / identified problems Precipitation Low Stratus Temperature Gusts

Planning with ALARO-X at ZAMG, …

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Plans with ALARO at ZAMG

Current priority:

AROME-AUSTRIA (2.5 km) … plan: operational in 2013

Migration NEC -> SGI

Beside that:

Ready for tests with new ALARO-1 developments

Stratus (SK scheme vs. TOUCANS?)

Wind gusts

AROME 2.5km vs. ALARO 5 km

Continue work on multiphysics for LAEF

Continue work on stochastic physics for LAEF

Soon: AROME 1km , ALARO 1km ?

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Input for discussions

Most important topics to be handled (as seen from ZAMG): Triggering of convection Intensity of convective precipitation Missing (weak) stratiform events Stratus in valleys, basins Cold daytime bias Wind+Gusts (10m+100m)

… some of that already solved with ALARO-1?

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21/04/23ALARO-1 Working daysSGI ICE X

After almost 1 year of delay …

… a new HPC is waiting at ZAMG for morecomplex physics, higherresolution, …

… ready for work in few month(after migration work )