aki 01 aki overview
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Budi HARTONO
Analisis Kelayakan IndustriIndustrial Feasibility Analysis
OVERVIEW
Budi Hartono JTMI - UGM 1
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Outline
Bisnis
Fundamentals of FS
Purposes, main ideas
Recall: Time value of money
Multiple views of FS
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Bisnis
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Bisnis
Bisnis
Membuat uang melalui cara-cara yang
bertanggungjawab!
Atau
Membuat uang sebanyak-banyaknya, secepat-
cepatnya, Selanggeng-langgengnya!
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Prinsip Bisnis
Prinsip return (tidak sekedar profit)
Prinsip nilai waktu uang
Prinsip Resiko
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Investasi Industri
Antara lain mencakup: Pembangunan industri baru (barang atau jasa).
Pengembangan industri yang sudah ada.
Penggantian atau modifikasi peralatan industri.
Perlu analisis kelayakan juga:
Pengembangan produk baru
Modifikasi produk Diversifikasi produk
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Ciri Investasi Industri
Menyerap (dan mengikat dana) dalam waktu lama.
Ada masa tunggu sebelum dapat menikmati
keuntungan.
Tingkat resiko lebih tinggi.
Jika dibandingkan investasi harta lancar, misal penambahan
persediaan, piutang dagang, dll.
Salah keputusan perlu waktu dan biaya yang besar
untuk memperbaiki.
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Feasibility Study: Fundamentals
Analisis Kelayakan Industri =Feasibility Study =
Benefit-Cost Analysis
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Analisis Kelayakan Industri
Tujuan: Keputusan Manajemen Jalan terus, atau
STOP!
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Feasibility Study: Fundamentals
Main Idea Benefits vs. Cost
example: the simplestform of AKI
http://lukisan-potret.blogspot.com/2010/06/lukisan-tokoh-kita.html
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FS = Benefit vs. Cost
Benefit Cost
Important!! Identifying all relevant variables: Benefit? Cost? Time duration Time value of money Projections / forecast risk & uncetainty
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Feasibility Study: Fundamentals
What is benefit?
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Feasibility Study: Fundamentals
What is cost?
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The top ten risks Regulatory and compliance risk
Global financial shocks
Aging consumers and workforce The inability to capitalize on emerging markets
Industry consolidation/transition
Energy shocks
Execution of strategic transactions Cost inflation
Radical greening
Consumer demand shifts
Feasibility Study: FundamentalsWhy consider risks?
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Recall: Time value of money
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Time value of money
Example
Time value of Moneywhich would you rather have?
Rp 1 M today or Rp 1M next year
Present Value
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Present Value
PV = FVn / (1+r)^n
where;
PV = Present Value
FVn= Future Value in n years
r = interest rate (compounded)
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Present Value (2)
Example:
Suppose you receive $1000 when you retire
within 20 years.
If the interest rate is 10% per year,
how much is the PV?
Answer?PV = $1000 / (1+0.1)^20
= $148.65
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Tips for Solving Time Value
Problems Draw a timeline
interest rate !!
time period
Inflows (+); outflows (-)
+
-0 1 2 year
$
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Multiple views of FS
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Multiple views of FS Example: MBS
l i l i f S
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Multiple views of FS
MBSStakehold
ers
Holdingcompany
SGgovernment
SG citizens
GentingIsland
(competitor)
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As Casino Opens, Watch for Its Social Impact Begins |By Stanislaus Jude ChanTourism officials hope the casinos will help Singapore achieve its target of 17 million visitors a
year, generating over 21 billion US dollars by 2015.
But from the inception of the idea for the first casino in 2004, it has met with much resistance
among concerned citizens. Several groups, including the Muslim and Christian communities andsocial activists, expressed their disapproval to the casinos a move that is both peculiar and
noteworthy in apathetic Singapore society.
Despite public worries over the negative social impact of casino gambling as well as opening of
doors to undesirable activities including money laundering, prostitution, and organised crime,
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong announced in April 2005: "After weighing the matter carefully,
the Cabinet has collectively concluded that we had no choice but to proceed with the (Integrated
Resorts) IRs. As Prime Minister, I carry the ultimate responsibility for the decision."
As a social safeguard to combat excessive gambling, the gambling levy was put in place, together
with the setting up of the National Council on Problem Gambling and measures such as casino
exclusion, to stop problem gamblers and those in financial difficulties from entering the casinos
in Singapore.http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=50616
Jul 14, 2010 | Rise in gambling addiction |By Melissa Kok
More than one million visits by locals to casinos in Irs|By S Ramesh |
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/singaporelocalnews/view/1081392/1/.html
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Konsumen Laporan Studi Kelayakan
Investor yang mencetuskan ide investasi.
Calon penyedia dana.
Calon mitra usaha.
Calon donor.
Badan pemberi fasilitas non keuangan (misal
pemerintah).
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Tahapan studi kelayakan.
Pre-evaluation study Evaluasi hambatan kritis, misal pemasaran dan
teknologi.
Feasibility study ($)
Evaluasi secara Sederhana (banyak
penyederhanaan kondisi!); jika layak didetilkan.
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Recall: Ciri Investasi Industri
Menyerap (dan mengikat dana) dalam waktu lama. Ada masa tunggu sebelum dapat menikmati
keuntungan.
Tingkat resiko lebih tinggi.
Jika dibandingkan investasi harta lancar, misal penambahan
persediaan, piutang dagang, dll.
Salah keputusan perlu waktu dan biaya yang besar
untuk memperbaiki.
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