ahmad hadri haris - feed-in tariff driving innovation & cost reductions
Post on 07-Apr-2018
220 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
1/12
Feed-in Tariff:
Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions?
Ir. Ahmad Hadri Harishadri(a)mbipv.net.my
Chief Technical Advisor (Renewable Energy)
Ministry of Energy, Green Technology & Water
21st June 2011
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
2/12
DRAM Moores Law
2Source: Applied Materials
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
3/12
Flat Panel Displays
3Source: Applied Materials
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
4/12
Photovoltaic (RE)
4Source: Applied Materials
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
5/12
RE Learning Curves & Cost Reduction
5
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
6/12
What are the differences?
Consumer Goods Strategic Goods
Mobiles
Laptops
Flat panel displays Automobiles
Etc.
The way electricity is produced
The way transportation is done
The way people are living in urbanenvironment
Only need global trade fair Do need initial political and public support
In summary:
New technologies in the beginning always have high costs (prices)
Cost (price) can only reduce with large demands (Price Experience Curve)
Only market pull with technology drive (innovation) will create the Price
Experience Curve, not technology push by its own
Q: What is the best market pull mechanism for RE?6
because consumers want the newproducts
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
7/12
Driver: Environment
& Energy Security
h)
Grid Parity
Years
E
lectricityPrices($/
k
GRID PARITY
Source: BP, RECEurope, USA, Japan Asia
2010 2020
7
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
8/12
Market Pull Mechanism: Effectiveness Indicator
FiTs are more effective
and cost-efficient
Source: European Commission (2008): The support of electricity from renewable sources
Historically observed efficiency of support for onshore wind: Effectiveness indicator compared
to the expected profit for the year 20068
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
9/12
FiT rates significantly influence market reaction (pull)
Conducive
FiT rates
92011
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
10/12
FiT Degression
Promote prices reduction towards grid parity
Promote early commissioning and reward early birds
Point of control for high FiT rates10
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
11/12
FiT is the best Market Pull for RE
Eg. Solar PV: Opportunity for Households
House type terrace semi-d bungalowElectricity bil l/month (RM/month) 80 350 800
BIPV capacity (kW) 3 6 14
BIPV space requirement (m2) 30 60 140
BIPV capital cost (RM) 54,000 102,000 224,000
Down-payment for BIPV - 10% (RM) 5,400 10,200 22,400
FiT rates (RM/kWh) 1.74 1.71 1.71
FiT revenue/month (RM) 522 1,026 2,394
Bank loan - 90% 48,600 91,800 201,600
Loan repayment/month: 3%, 9yrs (RM/month) 514 971 2,133
Loan repayment/month: 4%, 12yrs (RM/month) 426 804 1,765
Loan repayment/month: 5%, 15yrs (RM/month) 384 726 1,595
Balance: FiT revenue - loan repayment, 9 yrs (RM/month) 8 55 261
Balance: FiT revenue - loan repayment, 12 yrs (RM/month) 96 222 629Balance: FiT revenue - loan repayment, 15 yrs (RM/month) 138 300 799
Total revenue (21 years) - 15% total performance loss 111,812 219,769 512,795
Total repayment - 9 yrs (RM) 55,512 104,868 230,364
Total repayment - 12 yrs (RM) 61,344 115,776 254,160
Total repayment - 15 yrs (RM) 69,120 130,680 287,10011
-
8/6/2019 Ahmad Hadri Haris - Feed-In Tariff Driving Innovation & Cost Reductions
12/12
Thank You
top related