agroterror “may we live in interesting times.” national governors association february 6 th,...

AGROTERROR

“May we live in interesting times.”

NATIONAL GOVERNORS NATIONAL GOVERNORS ASSOCIATIONASSOCIATION

FEBRUARY 6FEBRUARY 6THTH, 2003, 2003

AGROTERRORAGROTERROR

CREDIBLE THREAT?CREDIBLE THREAT?

The Threat is RealThe Threat is Real

280 US documents on agroterror 280 US documents on agroterror found in the caves of Afghanistan found in the caves of Afghanistan translated into Arabictranslated into Arabic

A substantial portion of the al A substantial portion of the al Qaeda Training Manual is Qaeda Training Manual is dedicated to agroterrordedicated to agroterror

AGROTERRORAGROTERROR

RAND CORP. SECURITY ANALYSTS RAND CORP. SECURITY ANALYSTS “THOUSANDS OF FOOD PROCESSING “THOUSANDS OF FOOD PROCESSING PLANTS HAVE MINIMAL BIOSECURITY PLANTS HAVE MINIMAL BIOSECURITY AND WORKFORCES UNSCREENED”AND WORKFORCES UNSCREENED”

NO US CITY HAS MORE THAN A 7 DAY NO US CITY HAS MORE THAN A 7 DAY FOOD SUPPLY FOOD SUPPLY

ASYMMETRIC WARFAREASYMMETRIC WARFARE

““INDUCTION OF ADVERSE EFFECTS INDUCTION OF ADVERSE EFFECTS THAT WILL UNDERMINE ECONOMIC, THAT WILL UNDERMINE ECONOMIC, SOCIAL, OR POLITICAL CONFIDENCE”SOCIAL, OR POLITICAL CONFIDENCE”

IT IS THE TYPE OF WARFARE IT IS THE TYPE OF WARFARE CONDUCTED BY A 3CONDUCTED BY A 3RDRD WORLD WORLD COUNTRY OR TERRORIST NETWORK COUNTRY OR TERRORIST NETWORK AGAINST A SUPER POWER AGAINST A SUPER POWER

ASYMMETRIC WARFAREASYMMETRIC WARFARE

““MISINFORMATION CAN BE MISINFORMATION CAN BE AS EFFECTIVE AS THE AS EFFECTIVE AS THE ACTUAL EVENT WHEN IT ACTUAL EVENT WHEN IT COMES TO AGROTERROR”COMES TO AGROTERROR”

MISINFORMATIONMISINFORMATION

OIE REQUIRES TRANSPARENCY OF OIE REQUIRES TRANSPARENCY OF REPORTING OF A NATION’S DISEASE REPORTING OF A NATION’S DISEASE STATUS AS A REQUIREMENT FOR STATUS AS A REQUIREMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE PRODUCTSPRODUCTS

AGROTERRORAGROTERROR

The purpose of agroterror is to cause The purpose of agroterror is to cause economic destructioneconomic destruction

Decrease the faith in the safety of Decrease the faith in the safety of the food supplythe food supply

Decrease the availability of foodDecrease the availability of food A vehicle for the dissemination of a A vehicle for the dissemination of a

chemical or biologic agentchemical or biologic agent

Plans, Plans, PlansPlans, Plans, Plans

FMD PlanFMD Plan Avian Influenza PlanAvian Influenza Plan Animal Health Emergency Animal Health Emergency

Management PlanManagement Plan FEOPFEOP SEOPSEOP Model State Plan???????????Model State Plan???????????

Model State Emergency Operations Model State Emergency Operations PlanPlan

Comprehensive Emergency Comprehensive Emergency Management FormatManagement Format

Emergency Support FunctionEmergency Support Function

AnnexAnnex

All HazardAll Hazard

Model PlanModel Plan

PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE, PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE, ANIMALS AND ANIMAL INDUSTRY ANIMALS AND ANIMAL INDUSTRY MODEL STATE EMERGENCY MODEL STATE EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLANOPERATIONS PLAN

Comprehensive Emergency Comprehensive Emergency Management PlanManagement Plan

IntroductionIntroduction PurposePurpose Responsibilities (Primary, Support)Responsibilities (Primary, Support) Concept of Operations (Mitigation, Concept of Operations (Mitigation,

Response and Recovery)Response and Recovery) Succession of AuthoritySuccession of Authority

KEY ELEMENTSKEY ELEMENTS

CERTAIN CATASTROPHIC EVENTS CERTAIN CATASTROPHIC EVENTS EITHER NATURAL OR MAN-MADE EITHER NATURAL OR MAN-MADE INVOLVING PRODUCTION INVOLVING PRODUCTION AGRICULTURE, ANIMALS AND ANIMAL AGRICULTURE, ANIMALS AND ANIMAL INDUSTRY WILL BE DECLARABLE INDUSTRY WILL BE DECLARABLE EMERGENCIES OR DISASTERS TO EMERGENCIES OR DISASTERS TO PROTECT HUMAN LIFE, PROPERTY PROTECT HUMAN LIFE, PROPERTY AND THE ECONOMYAND THE ECONOMY

KEY ELEMENTSKEY ELEMENTS

PRIMARY AGENCIES ARE IDENTIFIED PRIMARY AGENCIES ARE IDENTIFIED (DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, (DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, BOARDS OF ANIMAL HEALTH, ANIMAL BOARDS OF ANIMAL HEALTH, ANIMAL HEALTH COMMISSIONS AND/OR HEALTH COMMISSIONS AND/OR UNIVERSITIES)UNIVERSITIES)

SUPPORT AGENCIES (DOT, DOD, LE, SUPPORT AGENCIES (DOT, DOD, LE, DHR, SEMA, FEMA, DNR)DHR, SEMA, FEMA, DNR)

KEY ELEMENTSKEY ELEMENTS

PRIMARY AGENCY OR AGENCIES PRIMARY AGENCY OR AGENCIES MUST HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO MUST HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO QUARANTINE, STOP MOVEMENT, QUARANTINE, STOP MOVEMENT, DETAIN IN ONE LOCATION OR MOVE DETAIN IN ONE LOCATION OR MOVE TO ANOTHER ANIMALS, EQUIPMENT, TO ANOTHER ANIMALS, EQUIPMENT, OR PRODUCTS FOR THE CONTROL OR PRODUCTS FOR THE CONTROL AND ERADICATION OF DISEASEAND ERADICATION OF DISEASE

KEY ELEMENTSKEY ELEMENTS

SUCCESSION OF AUTHORITY: THE SUCCESSION OF AUTHORITY: THE COMMISSIONER OR DIRECTOR OF THE COMMISSIONER OR DIRECTOR OF THE PRIMARY AGENCY OR AGENCIES WILL PRIMARY AGENCY OR AGENCIES WILL IDENTIFY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IDENTIFY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT COORDINATORS THAT WILL HAVE THE COORDINATORS THAT WILL HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO DEDICATE EQUIPMENT, AUTHORITY TO DEDICATE EQUIPMENT, PERSONNEL AND FACILITIES OF SUCH PERSONNEL AND FACILITIES OF SUCH AGENCIES AND REQUEST ASSSISTANCE AGENCIES AND REQUEST ASSSISTANCE FROM OTHERS TO SUPPORT THIS ESF.FROM OTHERS TO SUPPORT THIS ESF.

KEY ELEMENTSKEY ELEMENTS

SUCCESSION OF AUTHORITY : MUST BE SUCCESSION OF AUTHORITY : MUST BE CONSISTENT WITH THE FEDERAL CONSISTENT WITH THE FEDERAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLANEMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN

MUST SUPPORT ANY OTHER ESF TO SAVE MUST SUPPORT ANY OTHER ESF TO SAVE HUMAN LIFEHUMAN LIFE

MUST BE CONSISTENT WITH THE US MUST BE CONSISTENT WITH THE US GOVERNMENT INTERAGENCY DOMESTIC GOVERNMENT INTERAGENCY DOMESTIC TERRORISM CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS TERRORISM CONCEPT OF OPERATIONS (CONPLAN) *FBI/OIG USDA*(CONPLAN) *FBI/OIG USDA*

KEY ELEMENTSKEY ELEMENTS MUST HAVE A METHOD OF ACQUIRING, MUST HAVE A METHOD OF ACQUIRING,

MAINTAINING, EVALUATING AND MAINTAINING, EVALUATING AND DISSEMINATING INFORMATION IN A DISSEMINATING INFORMATION IN A RESTRICTED AND SECURE ENVIRONEMENTRESTRICTED AND SECURE ENVIRONEMENT

A PARALLEL BUT SEPARATE LINE OF A PARALLEL BUT SEPARATE LINE OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TO INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TO THE HISTORICALLY TRANSPARENT THE HISTORICALLY TRANSPARENT REPORTING SYSTEMREPORTING SYSTEM

SECURE METHOD OF OPERATIONS SECURE METHOD OF OPERATIONS

NationalNationalEmergencyEmergency

Management Management AssociationAssociation

Big Sky MontanaBig Sky MontanaSeptember 11, 2001September 11, 2001

GEORGIA EMERGENCY GEORGIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AGENCYMANAGEMENT AGENCY

Foreign Animal Disease & Its ConsequencesForeign Animal Disease & Its Consequences

Paul Williams, DVMPaul Williams, DVM

Foot and Mouth Disease ExerciseFoot and Mouth Disease Exercise

June 9 - 12, 2001June 9 - 12, 2001

State Operations CenterState Operations Center

Georgia Emergency ManagementGeorgia Emergency Management

Participants

• Georgia Emergency Management Agency

• Georgia Department of Agriculture

• DNR Wildlife Resources

• DNR Environmental Protection Division

• USDA, APHIS

• Georgia Department of Transportation

• Department of Defense

Participants

• Department of Human Resources / Division of

Public Health

• Georgia Bureau of Investigation

• Department of Transportation / Law Enforcement

• Department of Administrative Services

• UGA, Diagnostic Disease Laboratories

• UGA, Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study

Participants

• UGA, Department of Pathology

• Members of the Livestock Industries

• Emergency Management, Iowa

• Emergency Management, Connecticut

• Dept. of Agriculture, Connecticut

Other Players

• State of Florida

• State of North Carolina

• State of South Carolina

Scenario

• FMD presumptive diagnosis, Volusia Co., FL

• FMD confirmed, Volusia Co., FL

• Sales traced to Gainesville, FL Market

• Sales traced to Moultrie, GA Market

Objectives

• Test ESF 14 response

• SOC / Unified Command Approach

• Test Support Agencies / SOPs1. DOD2. Law Enforcement

• Cost of Operations

What does it cost?

• Cost in indemnity - ($700 Million + in GA)

• Cost in disease control and eradication

(Laboratory, Veterinarians, Industry)

• Cost in negative economic impact to the economy

(collateral damage) $10B / 30 wks

• Cost of operations in support of the disaster

(The Emergency Management System)

Cost of Emergency ManagementOperations for one 6-mile Quarantine

Zone for 7 days

Agency ExpendituresDOT $853,888 (93 pieces of equipment)GSP $371,875GDA $210,000DNR $200,000DOT, LE $55,675DOD $45,850DOAS $33,720

Cost of Operations for Actual Scenario

• Total USDA cost of indemnity $700M/GA

• 6 months to a year more likely

OperationArea

Cost per Week

1 Month Operation

3 Month Operation

6 MonthOperation

6-Mile Zone 1.77 7.08 21.24 46.0270 Zones 124 496 1488 3224

Operation Costs (estimates in Millions)

Issues

• Agriculture / national critical infrastructure

• FEMA / FAD not a Stafford Act Issue

• FEMA / USDA MOU

• $1.5 billion disaster with no 5%

Administrative Costs for disaster that could

have a recovery period of years

Issues

• Lost $74.35M in administrative costs to GA alone

• Agricultural declaration will assist farmers with

low-interest rate loans

• No community/individual assistance for the

collaterally damaged ( a 6 county area with less

than 7000 people per county has $174M in animal

industry farm receipts) = ghost towns

FMD IMPACT ON MONTANA

• MT- Population 900,000 / GA-8.2M• MT- 11th in cattle production / GA-26th• MT- 2.6M cattle / GA-1.1M• MT- Cattle cash receipts $1.6B / GA-$600M• TX- 98M Cattle / 1st 24 hrs. of an FMD outbreak

would cost $26B in economic loss to Texas

Montana’s Collateral Damages

• 650,000 sportsman purchased 1.3 million hunting related licenses = $28.7M

• These sportsmen spent an additional $325M on supplies, travel, lodging, food and other fees.

• Hunting and fishing = $176B nationally

(U.S. Census Bureau)

FMD Collateral Damages

Hunting and fishing:• supports 2.2 million jobs nationally.

• Generates $49.3 billion in household income

• Contributes $43 billion in state taxes

• Contributes $6.3 billion in federal taxes

Solutions

• Policy

• Domestic and International Trade (OIE, EU, other

trading partners)

• Research and Development

1. Vaccine

2. Gene-deleted vaccine

3. Cost Analysis = Involve all stakeholders