agrofuels …driving climate change ( a systemic view )

Agrofuels

…driving climate change ( a systemic view )

Outline

• Two Converging Imperatives: Peak Oil

and Climate Change

• The Agro-Biofuels Solution

• Three Impacts: Food, Forests, Climate

An IPCC proposal for stabilising CO2: the Pascala and Socolow wedges. Each wedge saves 25 billion tonnes of emissions between now and 2050.

Billions of tonnes of Carbon emitted per year

Historical emissions

Currently

projecte

d path

7 wedges

1955 2005 2055 2105

Replacing Oil with Biofuels

• Bioethanol, Biobutanol, Biodiesel

• 1 Wedge = 24m barrels/day of bioethanol replacing gasoline by 2055

• Requires 250m Ha of high yield plantation

• Or 1/6 of global cropland = land mass of India

NREL

Fuel = Food

Mexicans taking to the streets as ethanol makes their staple food unaffordable

A Declaration by Latin American NGOs:

“We want food sovereignty, not biofuels…

While Europeans maintain their lifestyle based on automobile culture, the population of Southern countries will have less and less land for food crops and will loose its food sovereignty…

We are therefore appealing to the governments and people of the European Union countries to seek solutions that do not worsen the already dramatic social and environmental situation of the peoples of Latin America, Asia and Africa.”

Army repression against peasants protesting against soya plantations

The human cost of biofuel monocultures: pesticide poisoning in Paraguay

Landless People’s Camp in Front of Large Industrial Agriculture Estate, Upper Parana

The camp is set on fire

Expulsion in Tekojoja, December 2004. Soya producers destroyed the local community’s fields

Soya monocultures are a green desert around the remaining small islands of forest, Soya Toledo,

Nina Holland.

Sawit Watch Challenges Land Grab

“Palm oil for biofuels increases social conflicts and undermines land reform in Indonesia…

It is unavoidable that, as a consequence of Europe's biofuels policy, the land rights of indigenous peoples and local communities will be relinquished further, and that food security will be undermined and lands for agricultural purposes and subsistence livelihoods will diminish.”

Indigenous Penan people trying to stop industrial loggers from destroying their forest

Logging and palm oil expansion go hand in hand

Burning the rainforest to clear land for palm oil

South-east Asia’s peatlands hold up to 50 billion tonnes of carbon

Draining Borneo’s peat for plantations

Borneo ablaze: Annual peat fires pump billions of

tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere

As ethanol pushes up the price of sugar cane, this rainforest in Uganda is to be

sacrificed for sugar plantations

Protest against land grab: FoE Nigeria

“It is a push by industry to make another scramble for Africa, grab the land and continue with business as usual. The industrial bio-energy push to increased bio-energy demand will be nothing other than an effort at extending the frontiers of neo-colonialism in its continued march on the back of the fabled market forces.”

In the past few months, the price of soya has started rising again, thanks to biofuels.

And the Amazon is being cut down faster than before.

Amazon rainforest destroyed for soya

NASA: Rate of Amazon destruction correlates with market price of Soya

Burning the rainforest to clear land for soya plantations

Dry season fires are widespread along margin of Amazon. Fingers of cleared land typically form a “herringbone” pattern as they extend from roads

Agro-Biofuels in the EU

• Germany is at capacity using 12% of arable land to achieve 1% transport fuel penetration• Oil Seed Rape: clover/alfalfa – Red Kyte, Ortolan Bunting

• 60% Wetlands lost in N & W Europe

• 45% Butterflies• 30% Reptiles• Birds, Insects, Wildflowers

• EU Biodiversity Loss target (2010)• EU Abolish Compulsory Set-asides from 2008• Rapeseed oil, Sugar Beet. Animal feed displaced to Argentina, Colombia, Brazil

GM Agrofuels

• Plant Genomes

• Microbes

• Potentially significant micro-lifecycle

gains but 5–10 yrs away

• Bottom Line: Micro vs. Macro Lifecycle

Irony of Agrofuels

40% increase in fuel efficiency via Hybridisation

10 – 20% through weight reduction

20 – 40% through smaller engines built for economy

10% through aerodynamics and low friction tyres

30% efficiency by reduced travel speeds, careful driving, correct tyre pressures, clean engine oil etc

TOTAL = 110-140% efficiency = ½-¼ fuel = 13m barrels / day Pascala & Socolow achieve 24m b/d bioethanol = 17m b/d gas.

Climate Critical Data

• Gaia and non-linearity

• Currently: 383ppm CO2

• 450 ppm CO2e gives 30-60% risk of 2+C

…Climate Tipping Point

State of Play

RTFO Biofuels Plan – 5%

EU Biofuels Plan – 5.75% / 10% US Renewable Fuels Standard – 20% China vast acerage planned India following suit

Mitigation: EU Fuels Standards Quality Dir

Certification = False Legitimisation

… because macro-impacts cannot included

Macro-Climate Impacts of Agrofuels

Land use change – deforestation

Land Use Change – peat and soils

Chemical Fertilisers – N2O emissions

Acceleration of climate feedbacks

Monbiot: 5-year freeze on Agro-Biofuel targets

FoE Paraguay and Argentinian NGO’s calling for moratorium

250 NGO’s and prominent individuals calling for a halt on all biofuel targets Certification cannot deal with macro-climate impacts or displacement - wrong policy instrument

Conclusion