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Agricultural Market
Situation and Outlook
March 23, 2020
Q&A at End
• Add to chat
• Text to 701-799-3998
• Email to Becky.Koch@ndsu.edu
Current Economic Conditions
and Industry ExposureBryon Parman
701-231-8248
Bryon.Parman@ndsu.edu
How Bad Has March 2020
Been for The Stock Market?Date Close pct change Ranking Worst Days
10/19/1987 1,738.7 -22.6% 1
3/16/2020 2,0188 -12.9% 2
10/28/1929 260.6 -12.8% 3
1899-12-18 42.2 -12.0% 4
10/29/1929 230.1 -11.7% 5
3/12/2020 21,200 -10.0% 6
11/6/1929 232.1 -9.9% 7
8/12/1932 63.1 -8.4% 8
3/14/1907 55.21 -8.3% 9
10/26/1987 1,793.9 -8.0% 10
7/21/1933 88.7 -7.9% 11
10/15/2008 8,577.91 -7.9% 12
3/9/2020 23,851 -7.8% 13
10/18/1937 125.7 -7.8% 14
12/1/2008 8,149.09 -7.7% 15
Date Close pct change Rank Worst Week
10/12/2008 10,323 -18.15% 1
3/22/2020 23,185 -17.30% 2
7/21/1933 106 -16.68% 3
5/17/1940 144 -15.53% 4
10/7/1932 72 -15.12% 5
9/23/2001 9,580 -14.26% 6
10/2/1931 107 -13.59% 7
11/10/1929 270 -13.53% 8
9/16/1932 77 -13.20% 9
10/25/1987 2,164 -13.17% 10
10/20/1933 95 -12.55% 11
12/11/1931 90 -12.43% 12
3/1/2020 28,403 -12.36% 13
6/20/1930 242 -11.87% 14
12/7/1928 291 -11.52% 15
3/15/2020 23,186 -10.36% 21
Mortgage Rates going up
despite Rate cuts (30 year)
The Yield Curve
Has Steepened Quickly
Industry China Exposure Supply Chain
Links
Business Environment
Links
Exposure Intensity
Fast Food Low Low High High
Chain Restaurants Low Low Medium High
Travel Agencies Low Low High Medium
Trade shows and conferences Low Medium High Medium
Commercial Banks Low Medium Low Medium
Hotels & Motels Low Low High High
Hog and Pig Production Medium Medium Low Medium
Agricultural Insurance Low Medium High Medium
Ag. Bank Low Medium High High
Oil Drilling & Extraction Low Medium High High
Beef Cattle Production Medium Medium Low Medium
Soybean Farming High Medium Medium Medium
Corn Farming Medium Medium Low Medium
Wheat, Barley, Sorghum Low Medium High Medium
Market Analysis of U.S. Risk by industry of
long term issues related to COVID-19
Risk Exposure Projection ratings from IBISWorld. Available online at: https://www.ibisworld.com/coronavirus-industry-exposure/all/
Crop Market Situation & Outlook
Frayne Olson
Crop Economist/
Marketing Specialist
Frayne.Olson@ndsu.edu
701-231-7377 (o)
701-715-3673 (c)
Current Situation
• Market traders have no reference points
for today’s conditions
• Prepare for the worst
• My view – Downward pressure on prices
will continue until number of new COVID-
19 cases in U.S. begins to decrease
• My view – Grain and energy prices will
recover faster than livestock prices
U.S. Dollar Index Futures
DTN Prophet X – 03-23-20 – 8:15 am
May CBOT Corn Futures
DTN Prophet X – 03-23-20 – 8:00 am
May CBOT Soybean Futures
DTN Prophet X – 03-23-20 – 8:00 am
May MEGX Spring Wheat Futures
DTN Prophet X – 03-23-20 – 8:00 am
Livestock Price Situation
and Outlook Tim Petry
Extension Livestock
Marketing Economist
Tim.Petry@ndsu.edu
www.ndsu.edu/
livestockeconomics
MED. FRAME #1 STEER CALF PRICES
550-600 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES
750-800 Pounds, N.D., Weekly
Ag-Energy
Situation and Outlook
David Ripplinger
Bioproducts/Bioenergy
Economics Specialist
david.ripplinger@ndsu.edu
Key Factors
• Global economic downturn• Saudi overproduction• Significant reduction in domestic
transportation fuel use• No technical support
Outlook
• Collapse in domestic ethanol, gasoline,
and oil use and exports 2Q 2020
• US corn-ethanol production scenarios
4 months/20% decline - 1.9 million acres
6m/25% - 3.7 million acres
12m/25% - 7.5 million acres
• Slow rebuilding of use in tandem with GDP
Q&A
• Add to chat
• Text to 701-799-3998
• Email to Becky.Koch@ndsu.edu
• Recording and more info at:
www.ag.ndsu.edu/extension/economics
www.ag.ndsu.edu/alerts/coronavirus
Feedback & Recording
• https://bit.ly/AgEconCOVID
• Recording and more info at:
• www.ag.ndsu.edu/extension/economics
• www.ag.ndsu.edu/alerts/coronavirus
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