age and aging in minnesota tom gillaspy minnesota planning october, 2001

Age and Aging In Minnesota

Tom Gillaspy

Minnesota Planning

October, 2001

Some Findings From The 2000 Census

• Population increased 12.4% to 4.9 million

• Fastest growing state in the “frost-belt”

• Most growth in the suburban fringe past the 694/494 belt

• Minneapolis and St. Paul grew for the first time in half a century.

• About 2/5ths of statewide growth due to migration. Each year about 80,000 people move in and 60,000 move out.

During The 1990s

• Minneapolis (3.9%), St. Paul (5.5%) and Duluth (1.7%) increased in population, reversing trends of a half century of loss.

• Rochester (21.3% gain) is now the fourth largest city in Minnesota.

• Of the 15 largest cities, Eden Prairie (39.7%) was the fastest growing followed by Eagan (34.1%). Only Bloomington (-1.3%) lost.

• Scott (54.7%) and Sherburne (53.6%) Counties were the fastest growing counties.

• During the 1990s, 25 counties lost population, down from 49 in the 1980s

Minnesota Growth = 12.4% -11.9% to .0% .0% to 12.4% 12.4% to 25.0% 25.0% to 55.0%

Population Change 1990 to 2000Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Growth 1990 to 2000 In Selected

Minnesota Race and Ethnic Groups

6%

81%

8%

87%

166%

7%

112%

57%

113%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%120%140%160%180%200%

White, NH Black, NH Indian, NH Asian, NH Hispanic

Per

cent

Cha

nge

90-0

0

Single Race Single or Mult Race

2000 Census, NH abbreviation for Not Hispanic

More Trends From The 90’s

• Populations of color increased rapidly. Latino nearly tripled, Black and Asian nearly doubled.

• Race comparisons difficult due to change in definitions.

• Immigration—4,000 to 9,000 per year.

• Median age increased from 32.4 to 35.4 over the decade. Middle-aged and college age increased most rapidly.

Minnesota Births 1910 to 1999

0100002000030000400005000060000700008000090000

100000

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

Births

Deaths

Minnesota Total Fertility Rate Since 1940

2.38

3.48

4.2

2.49

1.87 1.9 1.88

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1994

Lif

etim

e C

hil

dre

n P

er W

oman

Minnesota Life Expectancy At Age 65 And Age 85 Have Increased Steadily

14.9

15.7

17.4

18.2

4.6

5.4

6.2

6.5

0 5 10 15 20

1960

1970

1980

1990

Average Years Of Life Remaining

Age 85Age 65

Minnesota Death Rates Per 100,000 By Race

0200400600800

100012001400160018002000

Under 1 1 to 4 5 to 9 15-24 25-44 45-64

African AmAm IndianAsianHispanicWhite

Population as of 1991; deaths averaged over 1989 to 1993

NonMetropolitan Natural Increase 1990-98

Minnesota Change By Age Group 1990 to 2000

-2.1%

2.9%

19.7%25.8%

2.0%

-13.7%

23.7%

55.4%

31.1%

4.0%0.4%

15.9%24.4%

-20%-10%

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%

Under

5

5 to 9

10 to

14

15 to

19

20 to

24

25 to

34

35 to

44

45 to

54

55 to

59

60 to

64

65 to

74

75 to

84 85+

2000 Census

Minnesota Age-Sex Pyramid 2000

-50000 -40000 -30000 -20000 -10000 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000

Under 1 year

10 years

20 years

30 years

40 years

50 years

60 years

70 years

80 years

90 years

100 or more

Female Male

Minnesota's Population Is Aging: Projected Population 2000 to 2010

-3%

-12%

-11%

-8%

36%

10%

17%

-30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Preschool, 0-4

K-12, 5-17

College, 18-24

Young worker, 25-44

Older worker, 45-64

Younger old, 65-79

Older old, 80+

Minnesota Poverty Rate By Age 2000

11.3%

8.6%

13.2%

5.8%

4.1% 4.6%5.3%

6.3%

10.7%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

<5 5-17 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+

Per

cent

Bel

ow P

over

ty

Source: Census Bureau, C2SS survey

Percent Change 1990 to 2000 In Selected Minnesota Household Characteristics

11%

9%

23%

6%

4%

19%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Families

Families with Children

Female HouseholderWith Children

65+ Living Alone

Renters

Homeowners

Nearly Half of Households With Someone Age 65 And Older Are Single Person

Households

22.0%

44.0%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

Without 65+

With 65+

Percent of Households by Presence of Person 65+

Minnesota State Government Workforce Is Aging Rapidly

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

Under 20 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65

+

Age

Per

cen

t of

Sta

te W

ork

forc

e

1984

2000

Median Age Of Minnesota State Workers Is 46 in 2000

46

47

51

48

47

44

46

41

47

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

All employees

Administration

Economic Security

Revenue

Human Services

Public Safety

Natural Resources

Corrections

Transportation

Some Sources of Demographic Information

• State Demographer http://www.mnplan.state.mn.us/demography/

• Helpline 651-296-2557

• Metro Council http://www.metrocouncil.org/

• Census Bureau http://www.census.gov/

• Health profiles http://www.mnplan.state.mn.us/datanetweb/

Some Results Expected From The 2000 Census

• Foreign born population doubled

• Substantial increases in limited English proficiency population, especially Spanish speaking

• Decrease in poverty across most age groups and household types

• Education attainment increased

• Houses larger

• Commutes increase in length

Natural Increase

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1910 1918 1926 1934 1942 1950 1958 1966 1974 1982 1990 1998

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Death RateBirth Rate