affordable housing = rocket science? · 2016-03-30 · . affordable housing vs speculation and the...

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Affordable housing =

rocket science?

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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Affordable... in England..?

The average house price in England was 6.4 times local salaries in 2002, and 8.8 in 2014. For London: ~ 20 times the local salaries.

In Oxford, Brighton and Cambridge the average private rent took around 50% of local pay. Rents in London took an average 55% of the local pay. Source: Office for National Statistics.

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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Affordable in Sweden…?

The cost of buying a home

went up by 14%, across Sweden (Oct. 2014 - Oct. 2015)

News of the hike in prices came just a week after the country’s National Institute of Economic Research warned that the housing market could soon end up crashing.

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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Affordable in Copenhagen..?

Property prices in Copenhagen rose by 40-60% in 3 years June 2012-Oct. 2015 (Bloomberg Oct. -15)

Denmark’s biggest mortgage bank, Nykredit, says there’s a “real risk” Copenhagen is heading into a property bubble.

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

800,000 Vietnamese people fled the country in the two decades after the end of the Vietnam War.

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Temporary homes “better shelter”

by IKEA and UNHCR

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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A mission impossible…really? Germany: 1960s; an average of 570,000

homes were being built annually – 714,000, in 1973!

UK: 1.5 Mi homes were completed 1945-55 Sweden: 1 Mi homes 1965–1975 The NL: From 2.1 Mi homes in 1947 to 4.8

Mi homes in 1980 (130 %) 1980-2000: 2 Mi new homes were added to the housing stock.

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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Affordable housing vs speculation and the market

The financial crises started, in 2008, with the sub-prime market in the US, and then spread to Europe, where banks were, and are still, very willing to lend out money.

The rest is history – or is it really..? What, if any, did we learn from this crises?

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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What did we learn? That banks, financial

sector, do not have a social responsibility,

that governments do not control the financial sector - enough,

that the financial sector can destabilise our entire societies.

That the financial fates of banks and its governments are too closely linked: Insolvency of one threatens insolvency of the other.

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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What did we learn? That true affordable

housing is generally not achieved by the market, but by governments and local authorities - by the public sector.

That countries with a good balance between rental- and ownership housing (DE, AT, CH) did not, or do not, experience major housing bubbles… > more stabile housing markets.

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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What do we need?

Prevent the banks from getting too big - Too big To Fail - TBTF (so that governments and taxpayers should not have to pay up when these banks can not be shut down, can not go bankrupt – TBTF)

That public money - tax payer’s money - should stay in the public sector. Right-to-Buy (of public/social housing) is not the solution.

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

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What do we need?

More tenure neutral housing policies – between homeownership and renting and, more government support towards affordable rental housing.

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

like after WWII - construction of

(affordable) housing, not only

created homes, but also jobs and

political stability.

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Development of housing tenure, in % of total stock, 1946 – 2011 + trend for 2014

52.6

80

70,8

65

26.1

8.1

18,8 25

16.5

8,9 7,5 0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1946 1961 1971 1981 1991 2002 2006 2011 2014

ownership

private rental

social rental

Source: National Economic & Social Council IE, 2014

What do we need: Rules that controls the rents, also in the private rental sector – that makes rents affordable and foreseeable.

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

IRELAND

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Affordable housing =

rocket science?

Habitat III, Regional Meeting Prague March 16-18, 2016

No, it’s all about

politics!

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Affordable housing

…where there is political courage and will, there is

always a way! Thank you!

/Magnus Hammar info@iut.nu

Habitat III, Regional Meeting

Prague March 16-18, 2016