advice for the wise november 2012
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ADVICE for the WISE
Newsletter – NOVEMBER 2012
2
Economic Update 4
Equity Outlook 8
Debt Outlook 11
Forex 13
Commodities 14
Index Page No.
Contents
Real Estate 15
From the Desk of the CIO…
“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.18”
Dear Investor,
October was month of consolidation in the equity markets as well as debt
markets. The monetary policy announcement from RBI was an important
cause of both. On the equity front however, part of the consolidation was
also driven by aggressive profit booking by retail investors. A curious trend
that has become prevalent in recent weeks amongst retail investors has
continued. This is the classic case of “once-bitten-twice-shy”. Many
investors saw a precipitous fall in the value of their equity portfolios
through 2011 and were relieved to see some of that reverse in 2012. As
equity markets scaled higher levels most retail investors rushed to sell their
holdings as the portfolio values reached at least their starting levels. Much
of this was also caused by the memory of the panic of 2008 when falling
markets left investors with limited opportunity to exit in time.
The trend is curious since the underlying economic factors were probably
at their worst in Indian economy a few months ago and have only improved
since. Earlier this year, a combination of policy logjam, high commodities
prices, persistent inflation, falling rupee, tight monetary policy and a
constant barrage of scandals meant the growth expectations in Indian
economy were repeatedly revised downwards. Also all of this was
happening against a fairly worrisome global context – with problems in
economies across Eurozone, China, US and Japan. A lot of positive changes
have happened since then – both within and outside India. This is aptly
reflected in the equity market valuations as well. However, this upward
revision of valuations and risk appetite seems limited to institutional
investors. Retail investors seem to have ignored the change in
fundamentals and have focused merely on absolute market levels. We
believe this would seriously limit the actual wealth building they can expect
to do from equity investing and thus advise strongly against it.
We are also changing our stance on long term debt from cautious to
positive. This is in light of the absence of repo cut in RBI’s announcement
last month as well as its relatively mild tone regarding the future monetary
policy stance. The expectation setting done by RBI regarding a rate cut to
be feasible not before January next year also augers well for medium term
investors of long term debt. We believe that the long term debt securities
are likely to be fairly or cheaply priced for now and are thus poised for a
good rally through calendar year 2013 as monetary policy either eases or
shows signs of easing.
A pivotal event to watch out for in the month of November is the US
presidential election results. We expect that the re-election of President
Obama would keep global investors in the current state of risk appetite –
cautiously positive. However, should Mr. Romney be elected, the effect on
risk assets globally is likely to be negative in the short run. This is because
of the explicitly anti-loose-monetary-policy stand of the Republican
candidate. Many experts expect him to reverse the loose monetary policy
of the US Fed and also potentially end QE-III (which the reader might recall
is an ongoing $20bn-a-month mortgage—backed-securities purchase
program of US Fed). We are not sure if he would jump to do that
immediately and hence the effects on markets might be short-term.
However, if he indeed takes these extreme steps, risk appetite might
plunge globally. Also if this development has adverse effect on the US
economy in terms of slowdown of the already feeble growth, equity
markets in US and globally may face strong headwinds in the medium term
as well.
4
As on 31st Oct 2012
Change over last month
Change over last year
Equity Markets
BSE Sensex 18505 (1.4%) 4.5%
S&P Nifty 5620 (1.5%) 5.5%
S&P 500 1412 (2.0%) 12.7%
Nikkei 225 8928 0.7% (0.7%)
Debt Markets
10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.22% (7 bps) (66 bps)
Call Markets 8.04% 1 bps (50 bps)
Fixed Deposit* 8.50% 50 bps (75 bps)
Commodity Markets
RICI Index 3666 (4.2%) (1.9%)
Gold (`/10gm) 30931 (1.0%) 13.7%
Crude Oil ($/bbl) 109.9 (1.3%) 1.3%
Forex
Markets
Rupee/Dollar 54.12 (2.62%) (9.7%)
Yen/Dollar 79.64 (2.2%) (4.9%)
Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets
10 yr Gsec
Gold
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120 Sensex Nifty S&P 500 Nikkei 225
7.50
8.00
8.50
9.00
9.50
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
40
42
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
60 `/$
• Indicates SBI one-year FD •New 10 Year benchmark paper(8.15%, 2022 Maturity) was listed in the month of June, the 1 year yield is compared to the earlier benchmark(2021 Maturity)
5
US
Europe
Japan
Emerging economies
• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in September, improved again
in October. The Index now stands at 72.2, up from 68.4 in September.
• The U.S. unemployment report before the presidential election showed a jobless rate that rose to 7.9%
in October from 7.8% in September. The number of jobs in the economy rose by a healthy 171,000.
• The seasonally adjusted Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI fell to 45.4 in October 2012, from 46.1 in
September. The manufacturing sector opened the final quarter of 2012 on a disappointing footing, as the
downturn in the sector gathered pace.
• Eurozone’s unemployment rate for month of September came in at 11.6% slightly above 11.5% in August.
Euro zone unemployment has reached highest level since 1995.
Economy Update - Global
• Japan’s Manufacturing PMI posted a reading of 46.9 in October, down from 48.0 in September signaling
further deterioration in the performance of the Japanese manufacturing sector. The fall back in the
headline PMI to an 18-month low during October was disappointing in the context of last month’s slight
rise.
• Japan's industrial output contracted by 4.1% in September from August and 8.1% from a year earlier as
automakers and steel mills cut production due to shrinking demand and antagonisms with China
• China’s HSBC PMI inched slightly higher to 49.5 in October from 47.9 in September signaling a full year of
monthly deteriorations in Chinese manufacturing sector operating conditions. However, with the PMI at
an eight-month high, the latest data indicated the rate of deterioration was marginal.
• India’s HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 52.9 in October, broadly unchanged from the
reading of 52.8 in September, and signaling a further improvement in the health of the manufacturing
sector.
6
Economy Outlook - Domestic
• India's economic growth languished near its slowest in three
years in the quarter that ended in June but was slightly better
than expected. India's quarterly GDP grew 5.5 percent, driven
by a rebound in construction and financial services, just above
the 5.3% posted in the three months ended in March. Also it is
much lower compared to 8% GPD growth in the same quarter
last financial year. This is the lowest Q1 performance in a
decade, because of falling activity in manufacturing, mining and
quarrying.
• Despite all this, there is a silver lining by way of a sequential
uptrend in the growth rate. After continuous reduction in the
growth rate in successive quarters beginning in the fourth
quarter of 2010-11, this is the first time when quarterly growth
rate has exceeded the growth rate in the previous quarter.
GDP growth
• The industrial output for August 2012 grew by 2.7% against drop of
(‐) 0.2% (revised figure) recorded in the month of July 2012,
after several months of stagnant and even declining growth. It's a
modest figure alright but the biggest year-on-year rise this fiscal,
and seems to suggest a turnaround in growth. It is true that growth
of capital goods production remains negative year-on-year and very
much in the doldrums. Revised government revised the July output
and it fell by 0.2%.
• The better than expected IIP growth came due to better growth in
the manufacturing, mining and electricity posted growth of 2.9%,
2.0% and 1.9%, respectively.
• The August IIP figures show that manufacturing, with 75.5% weight
in the index, has grown a credible 2.9%. But note that for April-
August, the growth in manufactures is actually zero.
IIP
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
Aug 11
Sep 11
Oct 11
Nov 11
Dec 11
Jan 12
Feb 12
Mar 12
Apr 12
May 12
Jun 12
Jul 12
Aug 12
8.4 8.3 7.8 7.7
6.9
6.1
5.3 5.5
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) FY12(Q1) FY12(Q2) FY12(Q3) FY12(Q4) FY13(Q1)
Economic Outlook - Domestic
As on 31st September 2012, Bank credits grew by 13% on a Y-o-Y basis which is 10% lower than the growth witnessed in September 2011. Aggregate deposits on a Y-o-Y basis grew at 10.2%, viz-a viz a growth of 21.3% in September 2011.
On 30th October 2012, Reserve Bank of India kept the repo rate-the key policy rate-unchanged in its mid quarter monetary policy review, however it cut cash reserve ratio (CRR) by 25 basis points to 4.25%. The 25-basis point cut in CRR is expected to release around Rs 17,500 crore into the system.
The RBI explained the CRR reduction as a forward-looking measure to address the liquidity pressures expected to arise in the near term on account of the seasonal pickup in credit growth in the second half of the fiscal year; and increase in currency demand related to the onset of the festive season in India.
The government’s diesel price raise has pushed wholesale price index-based inflation to its highest level this fiscal at 7.81% in September as prices of wheat, cereals and diesel soared. Inflation, as measured by the Wholesale Price Index (WPI), was 7.55% in August. In September last year, however, it was 10%. Inflation for July was revised upwards to 7.52%, from 6.87% as per provisional estimates.
The index for 'Food Articles' group rose by 0.6% & the index for 'Non-Food Articles' group declined by 2.1%. Inflation in manufactured items rose to 6.24% in September, the highest in this financial year. Part of it came through higher processed food prices, as inflation here rose to 9.76% in September from 9.01%, due to a spurt in the prices of sugar and edible oils.
India's annual consumer price inflation fell in September to 9.73 percent, driven by a marginal fall in fuel and food prices from a 10.03% (final) for the month of August 2012.
Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs
7 * End of period figures
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
9.0%
9.5%
10.0%
Wholesale Price Index
5.0%
7.0%
9.0%
11.0%
13.0%
15.0%
17.0%
19.0%
21.0%
23.0%
25.0%
Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits
8
Equity Outlook
Economy has Bottomed Out
Global equity markets consolidated in the month of October while waiting for the US residential election results. FII’s continued to prefer
India over other emerging markets with further investments of USD 2 billion in October taking the year till date number to USD 18 billion.
In India, RBI continued to ease monetary policy though the instrument chosen was CRR. RBI reduced CRR by 25bps in October review. This
will release 17,500 crores of additional liquidity in the system. The expected inflation number at end of FY13 has been raised to 7.5% from 7%
earlier. Economic growth continues to weaken globally. While acknowledging that ‘Indian economy continues to be sluggish held down by
stalled investments, weakening consumption and declining exports’, RBI wants to wait for recently announced government policy measures
to be implemented before it changes its stance on monetary policy. The full year GDP growth guidance has been lowered to 5.8% from 6.5%
earlier. We believe that the current steps taken by the Government on the fiscal front will give RBI the necessary cushion to carry out rate
cuts in the coming quarters. As interest rates come down, corporate investment cycle will revive leading to a bounce back in economic
growth. We expect a further 50 bps cut in repo rate this fiscal although it may happen only in January 2013 when core inflation is expected to
fall below 5%.
The IIP number of 2.7% for August was a positive surprise indicating an improvement in industrial activity. Manufacturing growth also inched
up in October from September’s 10-month low, supported by a pick-up in new orders and an easing of price pressures pointing to an
improvement in the key sector. This combined with a rebound in auto and cement sales numbers indicate that economy has bottomed out
and we would see a revival in GDP growth going forward.
Q2 result season has commenced. Healthcare, FMCG and private sector banks have reported results that are mostly better than market
expectations. Public sector banks continue to show stress on the asset quality front. We maintain our positive view on domestic consumption
theme and private sector banks on good Q2 results. In the next few months, we might several more actions on the fiscal policy side which will
help in reviving growth. Investors should increase allocation to equity at every-dip.
9
Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
BFSI Overweight
The reversal of the interest rate cycle will assist in managing asset quality better and would lead to
increase in credit growth. However, we like the private sector more than public sector due to better
management quality and higher balance sheet discipline.
FMCG Overweight
We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as
the growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable
incomes.
Automobiles Overweight
Raw material prices have started coming down which would boost margins. Auto loans are also
getting cheaper. We are more bullish on two-wheeler and agricultural vehicles segment due to
lesser competition and higher pricing power.
Healthcare Neutral
We believe in the large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. However, the government policy of putting price
control on selected drugs might cause some short term pressure on stock prices.
E&C Neutral
The significant slowdown in order inflow activity combined with high interest rates has hurt the
sector. Now since the interest rate cycle has started to reverse, we have turned more constructive
on this space.
10
Sector View
Sector Stance Remarks
Telecom Equalweight
The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability
levels in the short to medium term. However, incumbents have started to increase tariffs slowly and
we believe that consolidation will happen sooner than expected.
Cement Equalweight
Cement industry is facing over capacity issues and lackluster demand. With regulator taking a strong
view against pricing discipline, the profits of the sector are expected to stay muted.
Power Utilities Equalweight
We like the regulated return charteristic of this space. This space provides steady growth in earnings
and decent return on capital.
IT/ITES Underweight
With the US and European customers of Indian IT companies are struggling, Order inflows might slow
down in near term. Most companies are loosing pricing power due to high competitive intensity.
Rupee appreciation will put pressure on margins in the near term
Energy Underweight
We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying
economics of oil exploration and refinery businesses.
Metals Underweight
Commodity prices have corrected significantly over the last few months due to concerns about growth
in China and developed parts of the world.
11
Debt Outlook
• The 10-year benchmark G-sec yield fell marginally by 7 bps to 8.22%, during the month October 2012.
• RBI has maintained its stance of focusing more on inflation in the Inflation growth trade-off stating that ‘Managing inflationary expectations must remain the primary focus of monetary policy.’ The expected inflation number at end of FY13 has been raised to 7.5% from 7% earlier.
• The spread on a 10 year AAA rated corporate bond decreased to 78 bps on 31st October 2012 from 82 Bps(as on 28th Sept 2012). The AAA Rated bonds were yielding 9% on 31st October 2012.
10-yr G-sec yield Yield curve
(%)
(%)
7.7
7.8
7.9
8.0
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
8.5
0.0
0
.8
1.6
2
.4
3.2
4
.0
4.9
5
.7
6.5
7
.3
8.1
8
.9
9.7
1
0.5
1
1.3
1
2.1
1
2.9
1
3.7
1
4.5
1
5.3
1
6.1
1
6.9
1
7.7
1
8.5
1
9.4
7.50
7.70
7.90
8.10
8.30
8.50
8.70
8.90
9.10
Debt Strategy
Outlook Category Details
Long Tenure Debt
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with a 25 bps CRR cut in October 2012 Monetary Policy and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, and signals of future cuts in the policy rates in the coming quarter, we would recommend to start investing in the Longer term papers and hold on to the current investments as well. These, while being available at attractive yields, also provide an opportunity for Capital appreciation due to a decrease in interest rates. Hence, these would be suitable for both - investors who may want to stay invested for the medium term (exiting when prices appreciate) and those who would want to lock in high yields for the longer term.
Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive.
12
With the policy rates remaining unchanged by RBI along with a 25 bps CRR cut in October 2012 Monetary Policy and trend reversal of the interest rates which started with a 50 Bps rate cut in April’12, we would recommend investment in short term debt as further rate cuts are not going to be aggressive and early too ( Next probable cut in the Quarter Jan-March 2013). Due to liquidity pressures increasing in the market as RBI has a huge borrowing plan, short term yields would remain higher. Short Term funds still have high YTMs (9%–9.5%) providing interesting investment opportunities.
Short Tenure Debt
Credit
13
Forex
• INR has depreciated against three major currencies. INR depreciated by 2.6% against the US Dollar. Rupee has depreciated against dollar since the beginning of the calendar year by 1.57%
• Growth and inflation worries in India keeps Indian currency rate under pressure. After starting July with strong gains, the rally started to fizzle out towards the second half but ended the month with an appreciation.
• INR has depreciated more than 9 percent in over 12 month's period on weak economic and fiscal conditions. The adverse balance of payments, in which capital flows have been insufficient to fund the current account deficit, remains the core reason for this sharp depreciation.
Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data
• The projected capital account balance for Q2 FY 12 is revised from Rs. 84,400 Cr to Rs. 78,800 Cr also the Q1 figure was revised downwards to Rs. 99,500 Crores from Rs. 1,02,100 Crores.
• We expect factors such as higher interest rates to attract more investments to India. Increased limits for investment by FIIs would also help in bringing in more funds though uncertainty in the global markets could prove to be a dampener.
-10000
40000
90000
140000
FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) FY 12 (Q1) FY 12 (Q2)
Capital Account Balance
Exports during September, 2012 were valued at US $ 23.69 bn which was 10.8% lower than the level of US $ 26.6 bn during September, 2011. Imports during September, 2012 were valued at US $ 41.78 Bn representing a negative growth of 5.09% over the level of imports valued at US $ 39.75 Bn in September, 2011 translating into a trade deficit of $18.08 Bn.
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
-20
0
20
40
60 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $)
-2.62%
-1.57%
-2.85%
0.01%
-3.00%
-2.50%
-2.00%
-1.50%
-1.00%
-0.50%
0.00%
0.50%
USD GBP EURO YEN
14
Commodities
Precious
Metals
Oil & Gas
As the central bankers across the world pumping liquidity into the system, oil prices are unlikely to see any major fall. Combined. Oil prices are likely to be firmer after an industry report showed stockpiles shrank to the lowest in more than five months in the U.S., the world’s biggest crude consumer. Expect prices to move higher.
Crude
Gold
We continue to maintain our bullish stance on gold on a medium to longer time frame following the bond purchase program of ECB and easy liquidity regime. While the gold in USD terms continue to move higher, rupee denominated gold went into consolidation phase following a sharp rise in rupee, thereby keeping domestic prices under the lid. Having said that, gold is entering into its seasonally best quarter and one can expect only prices to go north. The current consolidation phase should be used to accumulate for the long term.
25000
26000
27000
28000
29000
30000
31000
32000
33000
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
Real Estate Outlook - I
15
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Residential
With new DCR regulations Mumbai market saw some confidence
coming back for investors. Rates remained at peak levels and
shows no sign of stress. The sales in many premium pockets have
seen over 60% plunge. Thane and Panvel sees lot of end user
transactions. All other prime markets like Pune, Banaglore,
Chennai, Hyderabad, NCR are seeing rate stagnancy well over 2
quarters now. With new supply being announced every month,
the stress on sales continues. Given the overall average of these
markets, any project having Rs. 4000 per sqft entry point with a
good developer sees lot of interest (keeping the unit size well
under 1500 sqft)
Prices surged since last quarter, factors being
largely growth of infrastructure and young aspiring
first time home. Cities like Jaipur, Bhopal,
Trivandrum, Madurai, Lucknow, Patna, Chandigarh
highly attractive for apartments in 600-1100 sqft
range
Commercial/IT
Lease transactions are under pressure and new rate/sqft trends
getting established in all major IT driven pockets/cities. Mumbai
still manages to stay afloat due to heavy investment in small
office spaces from investors
Very less benchmarks available but the rents are
growing 8-10% every year for commercial
properties in Tier-II cities
Real Estate Outlook - II
16
Please Note: Tier I* markets include Mumbai, Delhi & NCR, Bangalore, Pune, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kolkatta Tier II* markets includes all state capitals other than the Tier I markets The IC note is proposed to be presented every quarter
Asset Classes Tier I Tier II
Retail
Still to re-cover from the 2008 shock, many malls have
been experiment grounds for retailers. The FDI is well
awaited for re-starting the retail phenomenon in major
cities. 60% of the mall in India are not even 60% occupied
and if occupied, unable to get rent on time. Investment in
prime mall spaces can get good returns due to opening up
of FDI.
Hi-street rules the roost, the mall culture is repeated
beaten in the Tier-2 markets and predominantly seeing a
re-structure of plans to suit schools, hospitals, commercial
offices, call centers, super-market etc
Land
30-40 kms radius near in prime markets are becoming
expensive month on month. Interest from investors has
drawn lot of attention in well connected areas.
Land has given better appreciation in these markets than
Tier 1, since there is a natural demand to own land
property. Also, scarcity in old locations and new upcoming
areas due to infrastructure is making many invaluable land
valuable
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Honest, unbiased advise
17
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Pedigreed Senior Management Team
18
Disclaimer
The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth(a division of Karvy Stock Broking Limited) or other Karvy Group
companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the
accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it.
The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on
their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any
information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of
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19
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