advertising did not win the elections (again)

Advertising did not win the elections (again)

2003 2007 2010

0.88

1.06

1.29

€ per vote North

2003 2007 2010

0.470.32

0.44

€ per vote South

Source: CIM-MDB for media value, official results of Federal votes http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results

Media advertising value 3 times higher in the Flemish part

1 voters out of 8 (12%) decides when in situation “in het stemhoekje zelf”

More than 1/3 (37%) only make their mind during the week of the vote

Source: http://politics.indigov.be/files/postelectoraalonderzoek_deel1.pdf

Cause or consequence ?

Late decision is frequent in Flanders

Why bother with ad investments ?

Classic in advertising:

Share of Voice (contacts with the brand communication related to the total ad contacts in the category) should equate Share of Market (brand value or volume relative to the total category)

Even better :

Share of Voice (SOV) higher than Share of Market (SOM) =

validated recipe for further success(1 more point SOM for every 10 points

excess SOV)Les BINET et Peter FIELD, Marketing in the era of accountability, London, World Advertising Research Center, 2007, p. 44Peter FIELD « Marketing in a downturn : lessons from the past », Market Leader n°42 Autumn 2008, pp.30-31.

Does the principle apply in Belgian politics ?

The case of the 3 last federal elections, for the Senate (= broad vote districts)

North 2010: the winner in votes not the most visible in [media] advertising

Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €N-VA 31,7 13,3 0,54CD&V 16,1 16,6 1,33sp.a 15,3 20,0 1,69Open Vld 13,3 26,7 2,59Vlaams Belang 12,3 7,3 0,77GROEN! 6,3 10,2 2,10Lijst Dedecker 3,3 5,3 2,11PVDA+ 1,3 0,1 0,07LSP 0,2CAP 0,2

Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

North 2007: Open VLD should have been the winner

Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €CD&V NVA 31,4 14,0 0,47Open Vld 20,1 48,7 2,57Vlaams Belang 19,2 2,0 0,11sp.a 16,2 22,3 1,46GROEN! 5,9 5,3 0,96Lijst Dedecker 5,5 6,1 1,19PVDA+ 0,8CAP 0,3NEE 0,3Stijn 0,3

Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

North 2003: at that time, N-VA did invest much

Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €sp.a 24,9 17,1 0,60Open Vld 24,7 30,8 1,09CD&V 20,4 26,9 1,15Vlaams Belang 18,2 1,1 0,05N-VA 4,9 14,0 2,50GROEN! 4,0 10,1 2,24LSP 0,2Lijst Dedecker 0PVDA+

Another source confirms N-VA votes in 2010 were the « most cost-effective »

Open-VLD

LDD

CD&V

Vlaams Belang

Groen!

SP.A

N-VA

2.67

2.58

2.26

2.06

1.87

1.87

0.70

€ per vote 2010 *

* Sum of all votes (Chamber+Senate) to total expenses Source: http://static.tijd.be/upload/nota_Maddens_2748288-114497.pdf

It also confirms Open VLD as heaviest investor relatively to its voters’ base.

South 2010: like in Flanders, no correlationbetween media pressure and share of votes

% votes % media value Media value per vote €PS 35,7 13,4 0,18MR 24,3 36,4 0,66Ecolo 14,3 8,7 0,27CDH 13,5 41,2 1,34Parti Populaire 4,0 0,2 0,02WALLONIE D'ABORD 2,5PTB+ 2,1R.W.F. 1,6Front des gauches 1,1VIVANT 0,6MSplus 0,2

Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2010.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

South 2007: MR leader in vote and #2 in « share of voice »

% votes % media value Media value per vote €MR 32,2 34,5 0,34PS 26,8 23,2 0,28CDH 15,5 39,0 0,81Ecolo 15,2 3,4 0,07FN 5,9R.W.F. 1,3PTB+ 0,8PC 0,8FORCE NATIONALE 0,6CDF 0,5

Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

South 2003: PS gets the most votes compared to its media value

Party % votes % media value Media value per vote €PS 34,0 24,5 0,34MR 32,1 37,7 0,55CDH 14,6 25,6 0,82Ecolo 8,4 8,1 0,45FN 5,9VIVANT 1,5CDF 1,5 3,6 1,07R.W.F. 1,1PTB+ 0,8

Vote @ BE SenateSource : http://elections2007.belgium.be/fr/cha/results, CIM MDB

Too bad ! No correlation between SOV and SOM

in politics…

Surprise ?

At least 2 reasons for “failing” paid mediaadvertising success

Reason # 1

Advertising more effectivein low involvement makets

where repetition is key

Politics is normally a high involvement universe

with selective perception or perceptive defenseto diverging opinions

Advertising may only be effective on « late decision-makers » or low commitment

votersJean-Noël KAPFERER Les chemins de la Persuasion. Le mode d’influence des media et de la publicité sur les comportements, Paris Dunod, coll. « Dunod Entreprise », 1986, p. 340 (ao)

Reason # 2 Low sync between media used/allowedfor advertising for parties

and media that influence people’s votes

Main sources for opinion making:

news bulletins, debates, political programmes…

Mainly audio-visual mediaPrint ranked lower

Source : http://www.indigov.be/attachments/1279094718682/mail.html

Media used for paid advertising: mainly print except Vlaams Belang (Outdoor 45% of value) and CDH (18% Web)

News-papers

76%

Mag-azines12%

Free local press

6%Internet1%

Outdoor5%

Source : CIM MDB 2010. National

Although not salient in paid media,

some parties *did attract large audiences

* at least one of them….

Visibility on the Internet

Total « visitors » on n-va.be reached 80 k during the last elections month.

Only website of a political party to reach the Comscore publication threshold at that time !

Jun-2009

Aug-2009

Oct-2009

Dec-2009

Feb-2010

Apr-2010

Jun-20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Monthly visitors Website

Comscore = user centric panel also on Belgium. Reported sample size = 10,000 people

Frequency of search queries

Frequency of search queries: party or celebrity ?

Media after all…

… but not only paid media advertising

If media did help win the federal elections

It is definitely not advertising in the media

Because winners were not the heaviest investors (as in 2003 and 2007)

N-VA (and PS ?) probably did stand out in the relevant media and at the right moments

Media after all…

So maybe the « good old » share of voice/share of market ratio actually applies…

… but see it as a share of voice in all media:maybe the paid-for ones, but definitely also your own

contact points (Website, Facebook pages,…) and the earned media [editorial]

As a conclusion

Like it or not, paid media advertising only does not win the elections

Media definitely matter, but as a broad aggregate of editorial (earned), owned souding boards and probably

conversation. In this respect, the best possible role of paid media advertising is accelerating the process.

"La publicité n'a -de nouveau- pas gagné les élections" in Médiatiques n°47UCL- Observatoire du Récit Médiatique December 2010

Thank you !!

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