acknowledgment: joint hurricane testbed project
Post on 12-Feb-2016
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Objective and Automated Assessment of Operational Global Forecast Model
Predictions of Tropical Cyclone FormationPatrick A. Harr
Naval Postgraduate SchoolMonterey, CA
Acknowledgment: Joint Hurricane Testbed Project
•Synthesize model representations of 850 hPa vorticity centers
•Summarize a large number of parameters associated with
each center throughout its life cycle.
•Catalog in a dynamic data base to allow - summaries of current vortices- summaries of past vortices based on common factors (i.e., season, location, developing, non-developing, etc.)
Identify factors that discriminate between likely modeltraits with respect to tropical cyclone formation.
[ Objective, feature based, dynamic]
OBJECTIVES
Forecast Model Analyses and Forecast FieldsForecast Model Analyses and Forecast Fields
Tropical CycloneVortex TrackingProgram(TCVTP)
Tropical CycloneVortex TrackingProgram(TCVTP)
Forecast Data BaseCirculations forecast to
occur
Forecast Data BaseCirculations forecast to
occur
Analyzed Data BaseCurrent tropical
circulations
Analyzed Data BaseCurrent tropical
circulations
Current circulation summaries/ verifications
Current circulation summaries/ verifications
Final Circulation Catalogsummaries/verifications
Final Circulation Catalogsummaries/verifications
Catalog of False Alarms
Catalog of False Alarms
With respect to the ellipse representation ofeach tracked vortex, the following parameters are cataloged:
850 maximum valueSLP average, minimum value500-850 hPa shear 10ox10o box excluding the
200-850 hPa shear ellipse
1000-200 height thickness500 hPa vertical motion700-500 hPa moisturemodel-derived accumulated precipitationtemperature difference between area inside
ellipse and outside ellipse at 200 hPa
Summaries at 2003082500 GFS
Summaries at 2003082712 GFS
Summaries at 2003082500 NOGAPS
Summaries at 2003082712 NOGAPS
Summaries at 2003083000
NOGAPS
Aug-Oct Atlantic Numbered Vortices (Erika – Nicholas)
Eastern Atlantic (East of 30oW) Non-developing Vortices – duration > 24 h
Objectively identify and track analyzed and forecast vorticity centers in operational global forecast models
Summarize a comprehensive set of physical parameters associated with analyzed and forecast vortices.
Catalog parameters in a dynamic data base
Provide daily and other summaries of model forecast performance associated with developingand non-developing tropical vortices.
Use summaries to discriminate between potentiallyaccurate/inaccurate forecasts of TC formation.
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