a transport modelling approach and validation · 2018-01-24 · appendix c – transport modelling...
Post on 18-Mar-2020
6 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-1 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
A Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
A.1 Proposed Area of Influence
The Area of Influence (AOI) of the traffic model is illustrated in Figure A1. The AOI adopts the Study
Area defined in the Study Brief as the basis with extension to cover not only the proposed NDAs at
Kwu Tung North, Fanling North, Ping Che and Ta Kwu Ling, but also the New Territories to the north
of ATC Screenline R-R, including Tai Po, Sheung Shui/ Fanling, Tuen Mun, Yuen Long and Tin Shui
Wai districts.
To examine the additional traffic which will distribute to all over the territory, other strategic highways
providing main accesses for the proposed NDAs such as Fanling Highway, Tolo Highway, Tuen
Mun Road, Tai Lam Tunnel, Yuen Long Highway and San Tin Highway etc. are covered within the
AOI.
A.2 Strategic Model Preparation
Arup’s in-house territory transport model was developed using EMME software which comprises a
traditional 4-stage model and is compatible with Transport Department’s Enhanced Comprehensive
Transport Study – 3 (ECTS3) model. It has been well-validated to year 2005 by territory-wide
cordons and screenlines and major corridors including Tolo Highway. It is hence recommended to
adopt this model as a basis and update it using the latest available planning data and land use data
for this study.
With the availability of the 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices
(TPEDM) land use data released and revised by Planning Department (PlanD) in May and July
2008 respectively, the base year model was developed for year 2006 and it was validated to 2006
traffic condition. The model input data for base year model setup is described in the following
sections:
A.2.1 Territorial Planning Data
The 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) summarises the
land use data for base year 2006 and was provided by Planning Department. The key data is
summarised in Table 1.
Table 1 Summary of TPEDM Data for Base Year 2006
Population Employment Hotel Room
Hong Kong Island
Central & Western 263,542 377,746 4,746
Wan Chai 192,494 275,644 8,392
HK Eastern 588,016 273,372 2,823
HK Southern 279,943 92,420 176
Sub-total 1,323,995 1,019,181 16,137
Kowloon Urban
Yau Ma Tei 198,798 240,371 18,285
Mong Kok 137,413 119,221 2,999
Sham Shui Po 390,656 198,903 55
Kowloon City 371,887 176,124 2,453
Kwun Tong 594,471 282,511 3
Wong Tai Sin 429,846 94,631 0
Sub-total 2,123,072 1,111,761 23,795
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-2 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Population Employment Hotel Room
New Territories
Tsuen Wan 279,093 127,643 911
Kwai Chung 315,940 177,968 0
Tsing Yi 206,486 35,679 1,600
Tuen Mun 489,960 109,733 450
Yuen Long 143,775 50,237 26
Tin Shui Wai 272,217 30,742 561
Tai Po 252,714 73,122 40
Fanling/Sheung Shui 237,562 57,596 0
Shatin 431,749 160,760 1,065
Ma On Shan 194,997 30,620 831
Tseung Kwan O 348,877 64,488 0
North Lantau 89,245 68,649 2,545
Subtotal 3,262,616 987,237 8,029
Rural
Rural NWNT 145,282 39,942 51
Rural NENT 78,079 21,247 0
Rural SENT 64,472 22,259 0
Rural SWNT 67,398 18,354 221
Sub-total 355,231 101,802 272
Total 7,064,914 3,219,981 48,233
Notes:
• Population includes Usual Residents and Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year
• Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year including Mobile Residents and Transients
• According to the hotel statistics published in the Hong Kong Monthly Digest of Statistics (October 2007), the average hotel room occupancy for year 2006 was about 87%
A.2.2 Highway and Railway Infrastructure
Since the strategic model has been updated to year 2005, further update was required to introduce
any highway and railway projects completed and operated in year 2006. In accordance with the
webpage information of Highways Department and rail operators, the following highway and railway
updates were incorporated into the strategic model for this study.
Highway
• Castle Peak Road Improvement between Area 2 and Sham Tseng, Tsuen Wan
• Widening of Yuen Long Highway between Lam Tei and Shap Pat Heung Interchange
Railway
• Opening of AsiaWorld-Expo Station
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-3 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
A.2.3 Economic Growth
According to the C&SD’s information released, the year-on-year growth in Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) in real terms for base year 2006 was 7.0%.
A.2.4 Vehicle Fleet Size
The fleet size of Private Vehicles and Goods Vehicles is obtained from Transport Department as
shown in Table 2. The breakdowns of goods vehicle fleet size by goods vehicle type are based on
information from Licensing Division/ TD.
Table 2 Vehicle Fleet Size for the Base Year 2006
Vehicle Class
Private Vehicles
Taxi
Goods Vehicles
Motorcycle Private Car
Goods Van
LGV MGV HGV Container Vehicle
Fleet Size 34,900 355,200 18,000 39,700 29,400 26,200 3,100 12,900
Sub-total 390,100 18,000 111,300
A.2.5 Cross Boundary Traffic
Base Year 2006 cross boundary traffic statistics were extracted from Transport Department’s
Monthly Traffic and Transport Digest, and are presented in Table 3.
Table 3 Year 2006 Cross Boundary Vehicular Traffic (in Vehicles/Day)
Vehicle Class Lok Ma Chau Man Kam To Sha Tau Kok Cross Boundary
Total
Bus/ Coach 3,120 238 263 3,621
GV 9,781 4,382 860 15,023
CT 9,028 2,177 295 11,500
Car 9,172 713 1,055 10,941
Total 31,101 7,511 2,473 41,085
A.2.6 Port Related Data
The port related data includes container throughput, port back-up and open storage data. The
container throughput was contained in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006
commissioned by Transport and Housing Bureau. Land use data relating to container port back-up
and open storage areas, on the other hand, was provided by Planning Department. The port related
data is summarised in Table 4.
Table 4 Port Related Data for Base Year 2006
Year Productivity of CTs 1-9
(in thousand TEUs per Year) Port Back-up Area (in
Hectares) Open Storage Area
(in Hectares)
2006 16,050 413.18 583.79
A.2.7 Airport
The total number of air passenger in 2006 was provided by Planning Department based on the
information received from Airport Authority HK. The figures are summarised in Table 5.
Table 5 Airport Usage in 2006
Parameter Total
Average Daily Air Passengers 79,000
Daily Cargo (Tonnes) 7,900
Source: Information from Airport Authority HK provided by PlanD.
A.2.8 Toll Data
Base Year 2006 road and tunnel tolls were extracted from Transport Department’s Annual Transport
Digest 2007, and is presented in Table 6.
Table 6 Toll Data for Base Year 2006
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-4 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Toll Facility Car Taxi Private/ Public
Light Bus
Goods Van
Light Goods Vehicle
Medium Goods Vehicle
Heavy Goods Vehicle
Tractor Unit
Lion Rock Tunnel 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Tate’s Cairn Tunnel 12 12 18 18 18 23 23 38
Tseung Kwan O Tunnel 3 3 3 3 3 3
Shing Mun Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Cross Harbour Tunnel 20 10 10 15 15 20 30 40
Western Harbour Crossing 1 40 35 50 55 55 80 110 140
Eastern Harbour Crossing 25 25 38 38 38 50 75 100
Aberdeen Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lantau Link 2 30 30 40 40 40 50 80 80
Tai Lam Tunnel (R3-CPS) 1 25 25 75 28 28 35 40 40
A.3 Base Year Model Validation
A.3.1 Screenline and Observed Traffic Data
To replicate the 2006 traffic conditions, this model was validated to the observed data obtained from
2006 Annual Traffic Census (ATC) traffic count data for Daily, AM and PM peak hour traffic in
pcu/hour (by direction) at the following screenlines (also illustrated in Figure A1):
• ATC Screenlines at Harbour Crossings;
• ATC Kowloon External Cordon (Kowloon Urban Area Boundary);
• ATC Tsing Yi External Cordon (Tsing Yi Area Boundary);
• ATC Screenline R-R (North end of Tsuen Wan & Shatin);
• ATC Screenline S-S (East End of Tuen Mun and Yuen Long);
• ATC Screenline T-T (North End of Tai Po & Yuen Long); and
• ATC Screenline Y-Y (Boundary between Tuen Mun & Yuen Long).
Apart from ATC screenlines, three local screenlines were selected within the AOI which could
further enhance the model validation by providing a powerful tool for checking the overall
performance of the model. The local screenlines are located at (also illustrated in Figure A1):
• Tuen Mun South Screenline which covers Tuen Mun Road and Castle Peak Road south of
Sam Shing Hui;
• San Tin Screenline which covers Castle Peak Road, San Tin Highway and San Tam Road
south of Fairview Park
• Fanling Screenline which covers Fan Kam Road, Tai Wo Service Road West and Fanling
Highway south of Wo Hop Shek Interchange.
Supplementary classified traffic count surveys for the selected screenlines were undertaken in
October 2008 on the normal weekdays from Tuesday to Thursday, for both AM and PM Peak
periods, i.e. 07:15-09:15 for the AM peak and 17:30-19:30 for the PM peak. The traffic count
surveys were adjusted back to 2006 traffic condition using the factor interrogated from ATC traffic
data, which accounted for 1-3% growth per annum. The model was validated to these observed
data for AM and PM peak hour traffic in pcu/hour (by direction).
Furthermore, for model validation purpose, daily figures in public transport patronage (no. of
passengers) for franchised buses and PLB/GMB at the defined screenlines were obtained from
2006 ATC. Traffic data on the daily ridership of MTRC East Rail Line and West Rail Line running
across the above screenlines were also collated from the Railway Development Office of Highways
Department.
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-5 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
A.3.2 Validation Criteria
As a general guideline for model validation adopted in various Government Studies conducted by
Arup, the highway screenline model flow should be within 10% discrepancy of the observed traffic
flow for all screenlines. For public transport screenline validation, a target of 20% discrepancy was
adopted. The validation criteria are summarised in Table 7.
Table 7 Validation Guidelines
Validation Criteria Validation Target
Highway Screenline Daily Flows 100% within ± 10%
Highway Screenline AM Peak Flows 100% within ± 10%
Highway Screenline PM Peak Flows 100% within ± 10%
Transit Screenline Daily Peak Flows 100% within ± 20%
A.3.3 Highway Validation Summary
A summary of the daily and peak hour validation results is presented in Table 8 for the selected
screenlines. The results indicate that the differences of the modeled and observed screenline totals
are all within 10%.
Table 8 Highway Screenline Total Validation Summary
Screenline Bound
Total vehicles (PV+GV) in pcu
Daily AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Obs Mod Mod/ Obs
Obs Mod Mod/ Obs
Obs Mod Mod/ Obs
Cross Harbour Tunnels
N 127,300 125,100 0.98 6,500 6,500 1.01 8,000 7,500 0.94
S 126,200 125,600 0.99 8,200 7,900 0.96 7,000 7,000 1.01
Kowloon External Cordon
N 382,900 387,000 1.01 20,200 21,000 1.04 24,600 23,300 0.94
S 390,300 384,000 0.98 29,600 29,600 1.00 21,700 21,200 0.98
Tsing Yi External Cordon
In 206,600 202,400 0.98 13,700 13,500 0.98 12,300 11,800 0.96
Out 200,9100 201,900 1.00 13,200 13,000 0.98 11,600 11,400 0.98
R-R N 194,100 197,400 1.02 9,800 9,500 0.97 13,700 13,200 0.96
S 193,900 201,400 1.04 16,500 16,000 0.97 10,700 10,700 1.00
S-S
E 183,700 183,400 1.00 14,200 13,700 0.97 10,500 10,300 0.97
W 181,700 183,200 1.01 9,900 9,800 0.99 12,400 11,200 0.91
T-T N 154,800 143,600 0.93 9,400 9,200 0.98 9,800 9,600 0.98
S 150,900 156,900 1.04 10,100 10,500 1.04 9,100 9,500 1.04
Y-Y E 73,300 73,500 1.00 4,500 4,500 1.02 4,400 4,400 1.01
W 73,800 72,800 0.99 5,100 5,000 0.98 4,300 4,100 0.97
Tuen Mun South E - - - 5,000 5,100 1.02 3,600 3,400 0.95
W - - - 3,500 3,500 0.99 4,400 4,400 0.99
San Tin N - - - 4,200 4,400 1.04 4,200 4,400 1.06
S - - - 4,300 4,500 1.04 4,000 4,000 1.01
Fanling N - - - 4,500 4,700 1.05 5,300 5,000 0.96
S - - - 5,600 5,400 0.97 4,700 4,700 1.00
Note : The observed and modelled traffic flow are rounded to nearest hundred.
A.3.4 Transit Validation Summary
A summary of the validation results at the selected screenlines for patronage on road-based and
rail-based modes is presented in Tables 9. The results indicate that the differences of the modeled
and observed screenline totals are all within 20% for daily patronage except the rail patronage at
Screenline Y-Y, which is 24% lower than the observed. Considered that this screenline is located far
from the NDA areas and the rail network connection between NENT and NWNT is not direct, the
proportion of people travelling between North District and Tuen Mun District by East Rail and West
Rail should be comparatively minor. The validation result is therefore still acceptable for this Study.
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-6 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Table 9 Daily Transit Screenline Validation Summary
Screenline3 Bi-directional Patronage
Road-based (PLB + Bus) Rail-based
Obs Mod Mod/Obs Obs Mod Mod/Obs
Cross Harbour Tunnels 798,500 857,000 1.07 941,000 979,700 1.04
Kowloon External Cordon 1,565,300 1,828,900 1.17 1,348,000 1,405,531 1.04
Tsing Yi External Cordon 911,900 991,800 1.09 226,000 236,680 1.05
R-R 855,700 802,800 0.94 530,000 524,119 0.99
S-S 876,300 814,000 0.93 110,000 110,095 1.00
T-T 301,100 271,500 0.90 362,823 375,992 1.04
Y-Y 66,200 53,300 0.81 91,000 69,256 0.76
Note : The observed and modelled patronage data are rounded to nearest hundred.
Table 10 and Table 11 shows the AM and PM peak transit screenline validation summary.
Table 10 AM Peak Transit Screenline Validation Summary
Screenline3 Bi-directional Patronage
Road-based (PLB + Bus) Rail-based
Obs Mod Mod/Obs Obs Mod Mod/Obs
Cross Harbour Tunnels 73,000 80,600 1.10 134,000 133,500 1.00
Kowloon External Cordon 147,900 161,300 1.09 182,000 179,600 0.99
Tsing Yi External Cordon 92,800 81,100 0.87 27,000 26,100 0.97
R-R 87,900 75,400 0.86 66,000 60,400 0.92
S-S 83,200 74,900 0.90 18,000 15,300 0.85
T-T 24,400 25,100 1.03 37,800 35,500 0.94
Y-Y 6,000 5,400 0.90 11,000 8,500 0.77
Note : The observed and modelled patronage data are rounded to nearest hundred.
Table 11 PM Peak Transit Screenline Validation Summary
Screenline3 Bi-directional Patronage
Road-based (PLB + Bus) Rail-based
Obs Mod Mod/Obs Obs Mod Mod/Obs
Cross Harbour Tunnels 69,200 73,900 1.07 110,000 116,100 1.06
Kowloon External Cordon 131,400 142,700 1.09 140,000 153,900 1.10
Tsing Yi External Cordon 70,800 70,200 0.99 21,000 24,500 1.17
R-R 72,900 61,100 0.84 50,000 51,000 1.02
S-S 74,800 60,800 0.81 12,000 9,100 0.76
T-T 23,800 19,200 0.81 32,600 35,700 1.09
Y-Y 5,000 3,600 0.72 10,000 6,500 0.65
Note : The observed and modelled patronage data are rounded to nearest hundred.
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-7 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
B Local Area Traffic Model Validation
B.1 Approach
Upon the validation of the base year strategic model, matrices were cordoned at the NENT area for
more detail road links and junctions validation by developing the local area traffic model (LATM)
using SATURN. The cordoned matrices were disaggregated into BDTM zone level with further zone
disaggregation and the local transport networks were also updated in accordance with the most up-
to-date information including the Method of Control (MOC) and time plan at each junction within the
proximity.
After running the assignment under LATM, the modeled traffic data were compared with the
observed traffic data for the road links by direction and for the key junctions by total in and out on
each arm. The results of the initial assignment runs were checked and identified for any
unreasonably high or low traffic flows, speeds, queues and delays. On the other hand, control on
the matrix estimation process has been in place to avoid over adjusting the matrices unreasonably.
This involves a thorough check on individual trip ends before and after the matrix estimation.
Significant adjustments in areas with no further development have been checked on their
reasonableness and where necessary, were capped for re-estimation. In this process, the final
matrices for the base year local area transport model matrices were produced.
B.2 Validation Result
B.2.1 Screenline, Cordon and Junction location
For the LATM validation, the modeled traffic data were compared with the observed selected major
screenline flows and key junction in/out flows.
A total of 3 screenlines plus 7 road links at cordon points were selected for the movements within
NENT and 11 key junctions have identified to be validated in the LATM. The locations of these
major road links and key junctions are shown in the below Figure.
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-8 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Supplementary classified traffic count surveys for the selected screenlines were undertaken in
October 2008 on the normal weekdays from Tuesday to Thursday, for both AM and PM Peak
periods, i.e. 07:15-09:15 for the AM peak and 17:30-19:30 for the PM peak. The traffic count
surveys were adjusted back to 2006 traffic condition using the factor interrogated from ATC traffic
data, which accounted for 1-3% growth per annum. The model was validated to these observed
data for AM and PM peak hour traffic in pcu/hour (by direction).
B.2.2 Validation Criteria
The guidelines for validation for this study adopted are the same as those for the Base District
Traffic Models (BDTMs) presented in Table 12 below.
Table 12 Validation Guidelines
Validation Criteria Validation Target
1. Total Screenline Flows 100% within ± 10%
2. Major Road Links 85% within ± 10%
100% within ± 20%
3. Key Junctions (Entry / Exit arm)
GEH 6 or less on 70% of links
GEH 7 or less on 80% of links
GEH 10 or less on 95% of links
The GEH statistic is a modified chi-square test of the form:
)(2
1
)(
21
2
12
VV
VV
+
−
where V1 and V2 are the observed and modeled flows on a specific link. This is used in order to
reflect importance of a difference based on the total volume on a link. If percentages alone are
examined then there is a risk of very large percentage differences in small flow volumes appearing
important when they are not. Use of the GEH statistic is designed to remove this risk by reducing
the significance of relatively large (percentage) differences between two small numbers. (For
example an absolute difference of 100 pcu/hr gives a big percentage difference if the flows are of
the order of 100 pcu/hr but will be unimportant for 1,000 pcu/hr). In general a GEH statistic of less
than 6.0 or 7.0 is considered adequate and less than 3.0 is very good.
B.2.3 Screenline and Cordon Validation
The validation results at each cordon point and major road links across screenlines within NENT
Area are summarised in Table 13 and the statistics is shown in Table 14. Again, the results
indicate that the differences at each cordon point and major road links are all within 20%.
Table 13 Cordon Points and Major Road Links Validation Summary
Screenline Bound
Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT1)
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Observed Modeled Mod/Obs Observed Modeled Mod/Obs
San Tin Highway Cordon
N 4,834 4,912 1.02 4,298 4,297 1.00
S 4,862 4,722 0.97 3,965 3,930 0.99
Castle Peak Road Cordon
N 326 326 1.00 279 279 1.00
S 162 162 1.00 123 122 0.99
San Tam Raod Cordon N 222 222 1.00 220 220 1.00
S 532 530 1.00 520 516 0.99
Fan Kam Road Cordon N 418 419 1.00 426 426 1.00
S 478 471 0.99 458 454 0.99
Fanling Highway Cordon
N 4,794 4,792 1.00 4,901 4,899 1.00
S 5,773 5,647 0.98 4,375 4,343 0.99
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-9 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Screenline Bound
Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT1)
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Observed Modeled Mod/Obs Observed Modeled Mod/Obs
Tai Wo Service Road N 260 260 1.00 450 450 1.00
West Cordon S 636 632 0.99 381 381 1.00
Bridge’s Pool Road N 260 260 1.00 450 450 1.00
Cordon S 636 609 0.96 381 380 1.00
Po Shek Wu Road N 1,282 1,338 1.04 1,360 1,401 1.03
at Screenline 1 S 1,522 1,533 1.01 1,655 1,621 0.98
So Kwun Po Road E 1,253 1,223 0.98 1,294 1,207 0.93
at Screenline 1 W 980 989 1.01 840 846 1.01
Sha Tau Kok Road N 1,037 1,102 1.06 810 826 1.02
at Screenline 1 S 980 969 0.99 948 985 1.04
San Wan Road N 291 294 1.01 371 369 0.99
at Screenline 1 S 565 495 0.88 504 512 1.02
Jockey Club Road W 1,342 1,394 1.04 1,692 1,739 1.03
at Screenline 1 E 1,333 1,345 1.01 1,479 1,467 0.99
Ma Sik Road E 842 764 0.91 595 559 0.94
at Screenline 2 W 782 789 1.01 651 637 0.98
Jockey Club Road E 636 643 1.01 575 581 1.01
at Screenline 2 W 673 670 1.00 617 630 1.02
San Wan Road E 507 556 1.10 441 460 1.04
at Screenline 2 W 527 536 1.02 590 635 1.08
Fanling Highway E 3,510 3,514 1.00 3,396 3,412 1.00
at Screenline 3 W 3,330 3,424 1.03 3,775 3,782 1.00
Castle Peak Road E 906 905 1.00 654 652 1.00
at Screenline 3 W 799 816 1.02 756 765 1.01
Note : 1 – Observed road-based public transport flows.
Table 14 Statistics of Cordon Points and Major Road Links Validation Summary
Validation Target
Percentage of Major Road Link Flows
AM Peak PM Peak
Total (PV + GV+PT1) Total (PV + GV+PT1)
85% Within ±10% 97% 100%
100% Within ±20% 100% 100%
Note : 1 – Observed road-based public transport flows.
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-10 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
B.2.3 Key Junction Validation for LATM
The validation of key junctions was undertaken for entry/exit flows on each arm separately. Table
15 summarises the results of validation and the statistic is presented in Table 16.
Table 15 Key Junction Validation Summary
Junction
Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT1)
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Observed Modeled GEH Observed Modeled GEH
Junction 1 - Lok Ma Chau Rd/ Castle Peak Rd - Chau Tau
ENTRY ARM
Castle Peak Rd WB -Entry 502 508 0 549 370 8
Access Rd NB -Entry 634 694 2 859 711 5
Castle Peak Rd EB -Entry 432 378 3 457 407 2
Lok Ma Chau Rd -Entry 364 371 0 404 395 0
Sub-total 1,931 1,951 0 2,269 1,881 9
EXIT ARM
Castle Peak Rd WB -Exit 538 546 0 577 587 0
Castle Peak Rd EB -Exit 1,004 1,010 0 1,205 813 12
Lok Ma Chau Rd -Exit 389 395 0 487 481 0
Sub-total 1,931 1,951 0 2,269 1,881 9
Junction 2 - Kwu Tung Rd/ Ki Lun Tsuen local rd
ENTRY ARM
Kwu Tung Rd EB -Entry 425 419 0 502 522 1
Ki Lun Tsuen Rd -Entry 45 45 0 31 31 0
Kwu Tung Rd WB -Entry 265 267 0 456 733 11
Sub-total 734 730 0 989 1,286 9
EXIT ARM
Kwu Tung Rd EB -Exit 255 256 0 449 726 11
Ki Lun Tsuen Rd -Exit 20 21 0 30 30 0
Kwu Tung Rd WB -Exit 460 453 0 510 530 1
Sub-total 734 730 0 989 1,286 9
Junction 3 - Castle Peak Rd - Chau Tau/ Connection to Kwu Tung Rd
ENTRY ARM
Castle Peak Road WB -Entry 342 349 0 299 295 0
Connection Road NB -Entry 337 385 3 438 450 1
Castle Peak Road EB -Entry 349 359 1 578 730 6
To Fanling Slip SB -Entry 382 392 0 510 675 7
Sub-total 1,410 1,485 2 1,825 2,149 7
EXIT ARM
Castle Peak Road WB -Exit 234 271 2 356 373 1
Connection Road NB -Exit 378 395 1 470 648 8
Castle Peak Road EB -Exit 416 428 1 489 453 2
Sub-total 1,028 1,094 2 1,315 1,474 4
Junction 4 - Kwu Tung Rd/ Connection to Castle Peak Rd - Chau Tau
ENTRY ARM
Kwu Tung Road WB -Entry 448 444 0 664 659 0
Kwu Tung Road EB -Entry 186 177 1 304 314 1
Connection SB -Entry 307 314 0 367 284 5
Fr Fanling Slip SB -Entry 422 469 2 546 476 3
Sub-total 1,362 1,404 1 1,881 1,732 3
EXIT ARM
Kwu Tung Road WB -Exit 175 169 0 153 147 0
Kwu Tung Road EB -Exit 541 541 0 909 828 3
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-11 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Junction
Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT1)
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Observed Modeled GEH Observed Modeled GEH
Connection SB -Exit 226 227 0 276 285 1
Sub-total 942 937 0 1,338 1,260 2
Junction 5 - Castle Peak Road - Chau Tau/ Ho Sheung Heung Rd
ENTRY ARM
Castle Peak Road EB -Entry 412 442 1 360 372 1
Ho Sheung Heung Rd SB -Entry 433 429 0 402 400 0
Castle Peak Road WB -Entry 404 388 1 389 374 1
Sub-total 1,249 1,259 0 1,151 1,146 0
EXIT ARM
Castle Peak Road EB -Exit 430 437 0 373 369 0
Ho Sheung Heung Rd SB -Exit 453 460 0 439 440 0
Castle Peak Road WB -Exit 366 361 0 339 334 0
Sub-total 1,249 1,257 0 1,151 1,143 0
Junction 6 - Kwu Tung Rd/ Kam Hang Rd
ENTRY ARM
Kwu Tung Road EB -Entry 123 119 0 133 140 1
Kam Hang Road NB -Entry 205 368 10 155 196 3
Kwu Tung Road WB -Entry 364 249 7 286 239 3
Sub-total 692 737 2 574 574 0
EXIT ARM
Kwu Tung Road EB -Exit 337 332 0 242 235 0
Kam Hang Road NB -Exit 218 221 0 216 216 0
Kwu Tung Road WB -Exit 136 182 4 116 124 1
Sub-total 692 736 2 574 574 0
Junction 7 - Castle Peak Rd - Kwu Tung/ Kwu Tung Rd
ENTRY ARM
Kwu Tung Road SB -Entry 264 196 5 153 131 2
Castle Peak Road WB -Entry 499 500 0 542 564 1
Castle Peak Road EB -Entry 333 381 3 301 318 1
Sub-total 1,096 1,077 1 996 1,012 1
EXIT ARM
Kwu Tung Road SB -Exit 222 232 1 192 226 2
Castle Peak Road WB -Exit 544 533 0 420 416 0
Castle Peak Road EB -Exit 330 311 1 384 371 1
Sub-total 1,096 1,077 1 996 1,012 1
Junction 8 - Tai Wo Service Road West/ Access Road to Tai Hang
ENTRY ARM
TWSRW NB -Entry 256 263 0 337 432 5
Tai Hang Rd EB -Entry 95 124 3 41 69 4
TWSRW SB -Entry 377 476 5 236 283 3
Sub-total 727 863 5 614 784 6
EXIT ARM
TWSRW NB -Exit 440 575 6 232 305 4
Tai Hang Rd EB -Exit 87 86 0 101 109 1
TWSRW SB -Exit 200 202 0 281 370 5
Sub-total 727 863 5 614 784 6
Junction 9 - Sha Tau Kok Rd/ Ping Che Rd
ENTRY ARM
Sha Tau Kok Road NB -Entry 1,056 1,035 1 955 958 0
Ping Che Road EB -Entry 240 238 0 532 531 0
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-12 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Junction
Total Vehicles (PV+GV+PT1)
AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour
Observed Modeled GEH Observed Modeled GEH
Sha Tau Kok Road SB -Entry 755 810 2 921 920 0
Sub-total 2,051 2,083 1 2,408 2,408 0
EXIT ARM
Sha Tau Kok Road NB -Exit 821 856 1 1,258 1,261 0
Ping Che Road EB -Exit 611 604 0 469 466 0
Sha Tau Kok Road SB -Exit 619 622 0 681 681 0
Sub-total 2,051 2,082 1 2,408 2,408 0
Junction 10 - Man Kam To Road/ Ping Che Road
ENTRY ARM
Ping Che Road NB -Entry 28 28 0 24 25 0
Man Kam To Road EB -Entry 33 37 1 21 23 1
Man Kam To Road WB -Entry 38 38 0 24 24 0
Sub-total 98 104 1 69 72 0
EXIT ARM
Ping Che Road NB -Exit 22 26 1 20 22 1
Man Kam To Road EB -Exit 39 39 0 25 26 0
Man Kam To Road WB -Exit 38 38 0 24 24 0
Sub-total 98 104 1 69 72 0
Note : 1 – Observed road-based public transport flows.
Table 16 Key Junctions Validation Summary
Validation Target
Percentage of Key Junction Entry/Exit Flows
AM Peak PM Peak
Total (PV + GV+PT) Total (PV + GV+PT)
70% Within GEH 6 97% 90%
80% Within GEH 7 98% 92%
95% Within GEH 10 100% 95%
The results show that the key junctions are well validated as the validation criteria for GEH 6, 7 and
10 are all met for both AM and PM peak periods.
As demonstrated in the screenline, major road link and junction validation summaries, the LATM
was developed satisfactorily in replicating the existing traffic flow pattern and shows high degree of
agreement between the modeled flows and observed traffic data.
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-13 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
C Design Year Model Development
C.1 Strategic Model Preparation
Based on the calibrated/validated TM, a set of reference scenario of future year models will be
developed by adopting the latest available planning assumptions, committed highway infrastructures
and railway projects, vehicle fleet sizes, cross boundary traffic, GDP growth and port related
assumptions etc.
The model input assumption for this Study has been recorded in the Technical Note– Parameters,
Assumptions and Input data of the Traffic Model circulated in November 2007. However, while the
transport model for this Study was developing in 2008, the “North East New Territories New
Development Areas Planning and Engineering Study – Investigation” (NENT NDA Study) has
commenced with a more updated set of planning parameters and input assumptions provided by
various government departments which were reported in its Technical Report 3C. Considered the
FCA is in vicinity of the NDAs, it is better to adopt the same set of planning assumptions as the
reference model scenario for consistency. The details of data collection and analysis are reported in
the following sub sections.
C.1.1 Territorial Planning Data
The 2006-based Territorial Population and Employment Data Matrices (TPEDM) land use data
released and revised by Planning Department (PlanD) in May and July 2008 respectively will be
adopted in this Study. Planning data for Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 were provided by
Planning Department in the NENT NDA Study. The same set of planning data will be adopted in this
Study for consistency.
Summaries of the population and employment planning data by district for the base year 2006 and
design years 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 are presented in Table 17 and Table 18 respectively.
Table 17 Summary of Population Data for Base Year and Design Years
2006 2016 2021 2026 2031
Hong Kong Island
Central & Western 263,542 288,552 277,353 277,241 296,554
Wan Chai 192,494 210,195 202,515 203,007 211,804
HK Eastern 588,016 585,613 581,649 582,727 601,331
HK Southern 279,943 301,469 316,814 320,270 331,352
Sub-total 1,323,995 1,385,829 1,378,331 1,383,245 1,441,042
Kowloon Urban
Yau Ma Tei 198,798 230,982 241,427 242,953 255,932
Mong Kok 137,413 147,396 141,044 141,707 151,354
Sham Shui Po 390,656 463,342 497,963 504,408 529,357
Kowloon City 371,887 439,563 490,479 494,130 511,128
Kwun Tong 594,471 670,920 708,767 716,163 739,908
Wong Tai Sin 429,846 427,518 439,650 442,592 454,435
Sub-total 2,123,072 2,379,721 2,519,331 2,541,953 2,642,115
New Territories
Tsuen Wan 279,093 285,619 283,693 286,004 296,314
Kwai Chung 315,940 315,533 336,273 343,011 354,862
Tsing Yi 206,486 197,166 197,704 198,394 203,809
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-14 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
2006 2016 2021 2026 2031
Tuen Mun 489,960 520,486 572,950 579,859 599,218
Yuen Long 143,775 163,169 158,763 160,766 178,846
Tin Shui Wai 272,217 315,291 321,783 324,890 332,725
Tai Po 252,714 257,215 252,532 254,106 261,945
Fanling/Sheung Shui 237,562 258,035 360,293 362,590 371,124
Shatin 431,749 496,441 493,268 496,254 510,158
Ma On Shan 194,997 223,556 226,657 225,987 229,107
Tseung Kwan O 348,877 426,455 449,313 449,035 456,436
North Lantau 89,245 143,045 223,705 288,974 297,027
Subtotal 3,262,616 3,602,012 3,876,936 3,969,869 4,091,571
Rural
Rural NWNT 145,282 206,684 217,582 368,518 410,960
Rural NENT 78,079 105,626 110,643 238,326 262,997
Rural SENT 64,472 78,959 80,404 85,421 101,059
Rural SWNT 67,398 76,103 76,648 80,255 88,936
Sub-total 355,231 467,372 485,277 772,520 863,953
Total 7,064,914 7,834,935 8,259,874 8,667,588 9,038,681
Notes:
• Population includes Usual Residents and Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year
• Persons Other than Usual Residents Present in Hong Kong as at Mid-year including Mobile Residents and Transients
Table 18 Summary of Employment Data for Base Year and Design Years
2006 2016 2021 2026 2031
Hong Kong Island
Central & Western 377,746 385,564 380,109 388,632 395,489
Wan Chai 275,644 274,184 280,467 275,378 269,372
HK Eastern 273,372 295,064 288,692 282,913 277,692
HK Southern 92,420 107,287 104,847 111,198 113,032
Sub-total 1,019,181 1,062,099 1,054,115 1,058,120 1,055,585
Kowloon Urban
Yau Ma Tei 240,371 243,344 235,600 233,508 228,346
Mong Kok 119,221 116,438 112,907 114,423 111,732
Sham Shui Po 198,903 209,586 211,116 209,777 205,923
Kowloon City 176,124 196,568 205,951 208,959 205,303
Kwun Tong 282,511 348,396 373,872 376,058 383,435
Wong Tai Sin 94,631 103,031 103,980 105,899 106,213
Sub-total 1,111,761 1,217,364 1,243,426 1,248,623 1,240,952
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-15 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
2006 2016 2021 2026 2031
Tsuen Wan 127,643 140,177 143,869 140,006 135,730
Kwai Chung 177,968 194,933 210,277 212,314 207,755
Tsing Yi 35,679 38,736 38,689 38,437 37,418
Tuen Mun 109,733 119,839 118,079 114,505 111,543
Yuen Long 50,237 61,543 60,508 61,489 62,698
Tin Shui Wai 30,742 35,246 34,381 33,714 33,565
Tai Po 73,122 82,127 81,621 79,163 78,174
Fanling/Sheung Shui 57,596 61,099 61,806 64,784 62,890
Shatin 160,760 171,762 165,139 162,367 159,963
Ma On Shan 30,620 37,352 38,298 37,893 38,069
Tseung Kwan O 64,488 78,055 83,321 86,577 84,362
North Lantau 68,649 112,594 137,000 148,161 147,935
Subtotal
Rural
Rural NWNT 39,942 46,082 47,145 53,626 87,853
Rural NENT 21,247 23,351 28,491 30,949 37,013
Rural SENT 22,259 23,453 24,406 25,512 26,676
Rural SWNT 18,354 23,246 22,393 22,942 23,528
Sub-total 101,802 116,132 122,434 133,030 175,070
Total 3,219,981 3,529,057 3,592,963 3,619,181 3,631,709
It is assumed in TPEDM that CT10 will be located at Northwest Lantau. Following the assumption
made in the NENT NDA Study, however, CT10 will be assumed at Southwest Tsing Yi. The
employment places generated due to CT10 construction/ operation should therefore be relocated
from Northwest Lantau to Southwest Tsing Yi. The relocation of employment data is carried out
according to following:
• By comparing the employment data from year 2006 to year 2031, the employment types related
to CT10 in Northwest Lantau are identified.
• Derive a growth rate from the 2006 to 2011 employment data of each identified employment type
and project the data to year 2021, 2026 and 2031. It is regarded as the growth of employment
places at Northwest Lantau even if CT10 is not in place.
• The difference between the original employment data and the projected data for year 2021, 2026
and 2031 is assumed as the employment places generated for CT10. Such employment data is
added to the CT10 location at Southwest Tsing Yi.
The adjusted employment data for CT10 relocation is shown in Table 19.
Table 19 Adjusted Employment Data for CT10 Relocation
2006 2016 2021 2026 2031
New Territories
Tsing Yi 35,679 40,419 39,619 39,613 39,179
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-16 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Rural
Rural SWNT 18,354 21,563 21,463 21,766 21,767
C.1.2 Highway Infrastructure Assumptions
Under the NENT NDA Study, Transport Department has been consulted for the latest highway
network assumptions to be adopted and it is presented in Table 20. The same assumption was
adopted in this Study for consistency.
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-17 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Table 20 Highway Infrastructure Assumptions for Design Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and Beyond
Year 2016 (In addition to Base Year 2006 Road Network) Configuration
Hong Kong
Road P2 and realigned Hung Hing Road on Wan Chai Development Phase II D2
Road P1, P2 and Distributor Roads on Central Reclamation Phase III D2
Kowloon
Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Central Kowloon Route D3
Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Trunk Road T2 (Kai Tak – Cha Kwo Ling Link). D2
New Territories
Route 9 Extension from Shek Wai Kok to Chai Wan Kok D2
Castle Peak Road Widening (Tsuen Wan Area 2 to Ka Loon Tsuen) D2
Castle Peak Road Widening (Ka Loon Tsuen to Siu Lam) D2
Route 8 (formerly Route 9) (Tsing Yi to Sha Tin) D3
Widening of Tung Chung Road S2
Route 6 (formerly Route 11) – Tseung Kwan O – Lam Tin Tunnel D2
Cross Bay Link at Tseung Kwan O D2
Widening of Tolo Highway/Fanling Highway between Island House Interchange and Fanling (Stage 1 – Section between Island House Interchange and Tai Hang) and (Stage 2 – Section between Tai Hang and Wo Hop Shek Interchange)
D4
Tsuen Wan Bypass, Widening of Tsuen Wan Road between Tsuen Tsing Interchange and Kwai Tsing Interchange, and Associated Junction Improvement Works
Add 2 lanes per direction
Dualling of Hiram’s Highway between Clear Water Bay Road and Sai Kung Town D2
Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge Hong Kong Link Road D3
Sha Tin Trunk Road T4 D2
Reconstruction and Improvement to Tuen Mun Road D3
Tuen Mun – Chek Lap Kok Link and Tuen Mun Western Bypass D2
Traffic Improvement to Tuen Mun Road (Town Centre Section) D3
Cross Boundary
Shenzhen Bay Bridge D3
Kong Sham Western Highway D3
Hong Kong – Zhuhai – Macao Bridge and its Hong Kong Link Road D3
Year 2021 (In addition to 2016 Road Network) Configuration
Hong Kong
Central – Wan Chai Bypass and Island Eastern Corridor Link D3/D41
Island Eastern Corridor Improvement between Causeway Bay and North Point D4/D51
Kowloon
Widening of Gascoigne Road Flyover D2
New Territories
Link Road to Liangtang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross-Boundary Control Point D2
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-18 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Year 2026 (In addition to 2021 Road Network) and beyond Configuration
New Territories
Lantau Road P1 between Sham Shui Kok and Yam O D2
Note:
The configuration of the highway varies at different sections of the road
The Link Road to Liantang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross-Boundary Control Point has been assumed in
place by year 2021. The same alignment option of the Liantang/ Heung Yuen Wai Cross Boundary
Control Point and associated link roads adopted in the NENT NDA Study will be incorporated into
the transport model for this Study.
C.1.3 Railway Projects Assumptions
The railway network assumption is obtained from the Railway Development Office of Highways
Department under the NENT NDA Study. It will be adopted for this Study for consistency and the
assumption is listed in Table 21.
Table 21 Railway Project Assumptions for Design Years 2016, 2021, 2026 and beyond
By Year 2016 (In addition to 2006 Existing Railway Network)
Lok Ma Chau Spur Line
Tseung Kwan O South Station
Kowloon Southern Link
Kwun Tong Line Extension
Shatin to Central Link (East-West Line)
West Island Line
South Island Line East
Guangzhou – Shenzhen – Hong Kong Express Rail Link
By Year 2021 (In addition to 2016 Railway Network)
Shatin to Central Link (North-South Line)
South Island Line West
Northern Link
North Hong Kong Island Line
Opening of Hung Shui Kiu MTR Station
By Year 2026 and beyond (In addition to 2021 Railway Network)
Opening of Tai Ho Wan MTR Station
Opening of Kwu Tung MTR Station
Port Rail Line (PRL) is not included in the list. PRL should have insignificant effect on vehicular traffic
as it mainly caters for cargo well in the Mainland hinterland
C.1.4 Economic Growth
According to the C&SD’s information released, the year-on-year growth in Gross Domestic Product
(GDP) in real terms for base year 2006 was 7.0%. For the future design years, reference data
provided by the Transport Department in the NENT NDA Study which is based on the information
advised by Financial Secretary’s Office will be adopted. Table 22 summarises the GDP growth
assumptions.
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-19 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Table 22 Assumed GDP Growth Rates for the Design Years
Year Annual GDP Growth Rate (in Real Terms)
2006 7.0%
2007 6.4%
2008 – 2012 4.5%
2013 - 2016 3.6%
2017 - 2021 3.0%
2022 - 2026 2.5%
2027 - 2031 2.4 %
Source: 2006/07 figure is based on C&SD’s information released. The rest are based on the information as advised by Financial Secretary’s Office in March 2008.
C.1.5 Vehicle Fleet Sizes
The fleet size assumption of Private Vehicles and Goods Vehicles is obtained from Transport
Department under the NENT NDA Study. It will also be adopted for this Study for consistency and
the assumption is shown in Table 23. The breakdowns of goods vehicle fleet size by goods vehicle
type are based on information from Licensing Division/ TD.
Table 23 Projections of Vehicle Fleet Sizes for the Design Years
Vehicle Class Mid-2006 Mid-2016 Mid-2021 Mid-2026 Mid-2031
Private Vehicles
Motorcycle 34,900 45,000 48,500 50,900 53,600
Private Car 355,200 458,000 493,400 518,700 545,000
Sub-total 390,100 503,000 541,900 569,600 598,600
Taxi 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000
Goods Vehicles • • •
Goods Van 39,700 40,400 41,400 42,400 43,500
LGV 29,400 29,900 • 30,700 • 31,400 32,200
MGV 26,200 26,600 • 27,300 • 28,000 28,700
HGV 3,100 3,200 3,200 3,300 3,400
Container Vehicle 12,900 13,100 13,500 13,800 14,100
Sub-total 111,300 113,100 116,000 118,900 121,900
Note: The numbers may not add up to the Sub-total number due to rounding
It is noted that the number of licensed taxis has remained relatively unchanged at around 18,000
vehicles with a mere increase by less than 200 vehicles over the 10-year period from 1996 to 2006.
Assuming this trend is to continue, the taxi fleet is assumed to remain stagnant at 18,000 vehicles
for the entire forecasting period.
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-20 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
C.1.6 Cross Boundary Traffic
The latest cross boundary traffic forecast provided by Planning Department under the NENT NDA
Study is adopted for this Study for consistency. The assumption is shown in Table 24.
Table 24 Cross Boundary Traffic Forecast (in daily vehicles)
Cross Boundary Point Vehicle Type 2020 2030
Lok Ma Chau (LMC) Bus/ Coach 2,600 2,700
GV 9,500 9,200
CT 9,800 9,500
Car 16,600 20,800
Total 38,500 42,100
Man Kam To (MKT) Bus/ Coach 300 400
GV 1,900 1,900
CT 1,800 1,800
Car 3,900 4,800
Total 7,900 9,000
Sha Tau Kok (STK) Bus/ Coach 400 500
GV 800 700
CT 600 600
Car 1,100 1,400
Total 3,000 3,200
Shenzhen Bay Port (SBP) Bus/ Coach 3,300 5,100
GV 21,600 25,500
CT 21,500 25,400
Car 34,000 54,500
Total 80,300 110,500
Hong Kong – Zhuhau Macao Bridge (HZMB)
Bus/ Coach 2,800 4,200
GV 1,200 2,100
CT 1,700 2,700
Car 7,500 14,800
Total 13,200 23,900
Cross Boundary Total Bus/ Coach 9,400 12,900
GV 35,000 39,400
CT 35,400 39,900
Car 63,000 96,400
Total 142,800 188,700
Source: From HK2030 Study by Planning Department, October 2007
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-21 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Liantang / Heung Yuen Wai BCP was not included in the traffic forecasts in HK2030 as shown in
Table 24. The estimation of traffic movements at BCPs should be as follows:
• adopt the traffic forecasts at various BCPs from the HK 2030 as shown in Table 24 and those
at Liantang / Heung Yuen Wai BCP from the Shenzhen – Hong Kong Preliminary Planning
Study on Developing Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai Control Point (Liantang Study)
• divert traffic from other BCPs to Liantang / Heung Yuen Wai BCP based on the Liantang Study
results to derive the traffic volumes for 2020 and 2030 at all BCPs. Results are shown in the
Table 25
• interpolate or extrapolate from 2020 and 2030 figures to produce 2021, 2026 and 2031
estimates as shown in Table 26
Table 25 Cross Boundary Traffic Forecast – with Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai BCP (in daily vehicles)
Cross Boundary Point Vehicle Type 2020 2030
Lok Ma Chau (LMC) Bus/ Coach 3,200 3,400
GV 4,100 2,900
CT 4,200 3,000
Car 15,600 19,100
Total 27,100 28,400
Man Kam To (MKT) Bus/ Coach 400 500
GV 800 600
CT 800 600
Car 3,700 4,500
Total 5,700 6,200
Sha Tau Kok (STK) Bus/ Coach 500 700
GV 300 200
CT 300 200
Car 1,000 1,300
Total 2,100 2,400
Shenzhen Bay Port (SBP) Bus/ Coach 3,400 5,300
GV 21,200 25,000
CT 21,100 24,900
Car 33,900 54,500
Total 79,600 109,700
Hong Kong – Zhuhau Macao Bridge (HZMB)
Bus/ Coach 2,900 4,300
GV 1,000 1,900
CT 1,500 2,500
Car 7,400 14,800
Total 12,800 23,500
Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai (LT/HYW)
Bus/ Coach 600 800
GV 7,500 8,700
CT 7,500 8,700
Car 1,400 2,400
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-22 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Cross Boundary Point Vehicle Type 2020 2030
Total 17,000 20,600
Cross Boundary Total Bus/ Coach 11,000 15,000
GV 34,900 39,300
CT 35,400 39,900
Car 63,000 96,600
Total 144,300 190,800
Table 26 Cross Boundary Traffic Forecast for Model Design Years (in daily vehicles)
Cross Vehicle Type 2016 2021 2026 2031
Lok Ma Chau (LMC) Bus/ Coach 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400
GV 4,600 4,000 3,400 2,800
CT 4,700 4,100 3,500 2,900
Car 14,200 16,000 17,700 19,500
Total 26,600 27,300 27,900 28,600
Man Kam To (MKT) Bus/ Coach 400 400 500 500
GV 900 800 700 600
CT 900 800 700 600
Car 3,400 3,800 4,200 4,600
Total 5,600 5,800 6,100 6,300
Sha Tau Kok (STK) Bus/ Coach 400 500 600 700
GV 300 300 200 200
CT 300 300 200 200
Car 900 1,000 1,200 1,300
Total 1,900 2,100 2,200 2,400
Shenzhen Bay Port (SBP)
Bus/ Coach 2,600 3,600 4,500 5,500
GV 19,700 21,600 23,500 25,400
CT 19,600 21,500 23,400 25,300
Car 25,700 36,000 46,300 56,600
Total 67,600 82,700 97,700 112,800
Hong Kong – Zhuhau Macao Bridge (HZMB)
Bus/ Coach 2,300 3,000 3,700 4,400
GV 600 1,100 1,500 2,000
CT 1,100 1,600 2,100 2,600
Car 4,400 8,100 11,800 15,500
Total 8,400 13,800 19,100 24,500
Liantang/Heung Yuen Wai (LT/HYW)
Bus/ Coach - 600 700 800
GV - 7,600 8,200 8,800
CT - 7,600 8,200 8,800
Car - 1,500 2,000 2,500
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-23 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Cross Vehicle Type 2016 2021 2026 2031
Total - 17,300 19,100 20,900
Cross Boundary Total Bus/ Coach 8,800 11,400 13,400 15,400
GV 26,100 35,300 37,500 39,700
CT 26,600 35,900 38,100 40,400
Car 48,600 66,400 83,200 100,000
Total 110,100 149,000 172,200 195,500
C.1.7 Port Related Land Use Assumptions
This Study will adopt the port related assumptions adopted in the NENT NDA Study which are
based on the container throughput forecasts contained in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo
Forecasts 2005/2006 commissioned by Transport and Housing Bureau. A summary of the
assumptions of future container terminals productivity is presented in Table 27. It is assumed that
CT10 will be required by year 2020.
There is no decision on the location of the proposed Container Terminal 10 (CT10) at this stage. As
the reference scenario, CT10 will be assumed at Southwest Tsing Yi in this Study.
Table 27 Estimated Productivity of Container Terminals (in thousand TEUs per Year)
Year CTs 1-9 New Container Terminal (CT10)
Total
2006 16,050 - 16,050
2016 21,470 - 21,470
2021 25,150 1,160 26,310
2026 25,150 4,250 29,400
2031 25,150 6,980 32,130
Source: Container Terminal Capacity information is based on the Study on Hong Kong Port Forecasts 2005/2006 provided by Transport and Housing Bureau. The new container berths would be required by 2020 under the A2 Capacity Scenario.
Note: The future year forecast for 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031 is projected from 2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030.
Land use data relating to container port back-up and open storage areas are summarised in Table
28 by broad district. 2006 and 2008 port back-up and open storage areas data is provided by PlanD
under the NENT NDA Study which will be adopted as the basis in this Study for consistency. As
there are no existing available projections on port back-up areas based on the existing inventory,
the following methodology is adopted in estimating the forecast of port backup data:
• Assume no change in port backup data at CT1–9 from 2008 inventory
• Adopt the assumption for the planned new supply by year 2020 in “the Study on Hong Kong
Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006”, which includes CT10 and the NDAs.
• Assume the port backup data for NDAs to be maintained the same from 2020 onwards. For
CT10, it is assumed that the first berth is needed by 2020 and all four berths will be needed by
2026.
• Derive a growth factor for the port backup data in other areas (excluding CT1-10 and the
NDAs) with reference to the territory-wide total provided in “the Study on Hong Kong Port
Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006” and apply to the 2008 inventory.
For the open storage area, there is no published information available for the design years. Although
significant changes to such land uses may not be likely, the open storage use at the NDA areas may
be reduced for development purpose. For design year model setup, the open storage data in NDAs
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-24 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
is assumed to be reduced at the same extent as the port backup data of the corresponding NDA.
The open storage data in other areas will assume the same as the existing provisions.
Table 28 Base Year 2006 and Design Years Port Backup and Open Storage Areas (in hectares)
Broad District
2006 2016 2021 2026 2031
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Hong Kong Island
Central & Western
0.48 0.12 0.50 0.12 0.55 0.12 0.51 0.12 0.48 0.12
Wan Chai 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
HK Eastern 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01 0.00 1.01
HK Southern 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46 0.00 1.46
Sub-total 0.48 2.59 0.50 2.59 0.55 2.59 0.51 2.59 0.48 2.59
Kowloon Urban
Yau Ma Tei 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mong Kok 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sham Shui Po 5.54 3.96 6.42 3.45 7.04 3.45 6.57 3.45 6.11 3.45
Kowloon City 0.00 2.25 2.97 1.29 3.26 1.29 3.04 1.29 2.82 1.29
Kwun Tong 3.21 7.72 4.24 7.34 4.65 7.34 4.34 7.34 4.03 7.34
Wong Tai Sin 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sub-total 8.75 13.93 13.62 12.07 14.95 12.07 13.96 12.07 12.96 12.07
New Territories
Tsuen Wan 0.00 0.37 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.86 0.00 0.86
Kwai Chung 68.66 1.07 71.04 0.72 75.65 0.72 72.20 0.72 68.76 0.72
Tsing Yi 34.03 6.61 41.93 6.61 90.50 6.61 115.97 6.61 141.43 6.61
Tuen Mun 26.28 9.12 19.99 11.25 21.94 11.25 20.48 11.25 19.02 11.25
Yuen Long 30.75 24.28 31.08 28.11 34.11 28.11 31.85 28.11 29.58 28.11
Tin Shui Wai 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Tai Po 0.00 5.05 0.00 5.15 0.00 5.15 0.00 5.15 0.00 5.15
Fanling/Sheung Shui
7.15 7.68 5.83 7.00 3.41 4.77 3.29 4.77 3.17 4.77
Shatin 2.78 9.82 2.90 9.63 3.18 9.63 2.97 9.63 2.76 9.63
Ma On Shan 0.00 0.97 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92 0.00 0.92
Tseung Kwan O 0.35 4.86 0.37 5.55 0.40 5.55 0.38 5.55 0.35 5.55
North Lantau 0.00 2.60 0.00 3.46 0.00 3.46 0.00 3.46 0.00 3.46
Subtotal 169.99 72.41 173.14 79.27 229.20 77.04 247.13 77.04 265.07 77.04
Rural
Rural NWNT 198.93 358.41 201.04 329.48 214.35 324.73 201.13 324.73 187.91 324.73
Rural NENT 33.38 127.28 27.98 100.36 25.07 75.51 24.51 75.51 23.95 75.51
Rural SENT 1.65 7.51 1.72 6.25 1.89 6.25 1.76 6.25 1.64 6.25
Rural SWNT 0.00 1.66 0.00 1.74 0.00 1.74 0.00 1.74 0.00 1.74
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-25 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Broad District
2006 2016 2021 2026 2031
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Port Back-up Area
Open Storage Area
Sub-total 233.96 494.86 230.74 437.83 241.31 408.22 227.40 408.22 213.49 408.22
Total 413.18 583.79 418.00 531.76 486.00 499.92 489.00 499.92 492.00 499.92
Note:
• Port Back-up Area includes Container Depot, Container Yard, Container Vehicle Park and Container Vehicle Repair Workshop.
• Source Data provided by Planning Department (as at Oct 2006 and Feb 2008)
• Future new planned supply of port backup area is based on the assumption in the Study on Hong Kong Port Cargo Forecasts 2005/2006. Interpolation has been done to convert the forecast years in the PCFs 2005/06 to the design years of the Study.
C.1.8 Airport
The assumption of air passenger (excluding transit passengers) and air cargo (excluding
transhipment) forecasts was provided by Planning Department under the NENT NDA Study and will
be adopted for this Study for consistency. The details of the forecasts are shown in Table 29.
Table 29 Airport Usage in the Design Years
Parameter 2016 2021 2026 2031
Daily Air Passengers 109,900 126,800 146,300 168,800
Daily Air Cargo (Tonnes) 12,100 14,900 18,400 22,700
Source: The above forecasts were prepared by PlanD in February 2008 with reference to information from the Airport Authority HK.
Note: 2026 forecast is estimated by interpolation between 2021 and 2030 data. 2031 forecast is estimated by extrapolation between 2021 and 2030 data.
C.1.9 Toll Assumptions
Future tolls are assumed to remain constant in real terms. The same assumption adopted in the
NENT NDA Study will be incorporated into the transport model for this Study. For government
tunnels with an existing flat toll structure, the same flat toll structure will be maintained for future
design years. Prevailing concessionary tolls on Western Harbour Crossing and Tai Lam Tunnel as
at Oct 2007 are adopted. Toll assumptions in 2008 dollars are shown in Table 30.
Table 30 Toll Assumptions – 2008 Dollars
Toll Facility Car Taxi Private/ Public
Light Bus
Goods Van
Light Goods Vehicle
Medium Goods Vehicle
Heavy Goods Vehicle
Tractor Unit
Lion Rock Tunnel 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Tate’s Cairn Tunnel 14 14 21 21 21 25 25 43
Tseung Kwan O Tunnel 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Shing Mun Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Cross Harbour Tunnel 20 10 10 15 15 20 30 40
Western Harbour Crossing 1 45 40 55 55 55 80 110 140
Eastern Harbour Crossing 25 25 38 38 38 50 75 100
Aberdeen Tunnel 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Lantau Link 2 30 30 40 40 40 50 80 80
Tai Lam Tunnel (R3-CPS) 1 28 28 90 30 30 35 40 40
Route 8 Eagle Nest Tunnel 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
TKO-Lam Tin Tunnel 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Planning Department Agreement No. CE 60/2005 (TP) Land Use Planning for the Closed Area – Feasibility Study
Appendix C – Transport Modelling Approach and Validation
Z:\Report\041 Draft Final Report\Final Report\Appendix C.doc
Page C-26 Ove Arup & Partners Hong Kong Ltd
February 2010
Toll Facility Car Taxi Private/ Public
Light Bus
Goods Van
Light Goods Vehicle
Medium Goods Vehicle
Heavy Goods Vehicle
Tractor Unit
Tuen Mun - Chek Lap Kok Link 4 15 15 20 20 20 25 40 40
Tuen Mun Western Bypass 4 28 28 90 30 30 35 40 40
Source: Toll charges published by the operators.
Note:
1. Concessionary Tolls in effect
2. Toll booths of Lantau Link are located in the eastbound direction only. The figures presented are 2-way tolls collected only in the eastbound direction
3. Being the parallel route to Tseung Kwan O Tunnel, the toll level of the future TKO-Lam Tin Tunnel is assumed as the TKO Tunnel toll as at 2008
4. The toll assumption is consistent with Tuen Mun - Chek Lap Kok Link Feasibility Study
5. Proposed highway projects (including the committed ones and those under planning) are shown in italics as their actual toll levels could only be determined nearer the time of opening
Appendix C – Figure A1
top related