a nation of takers
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A Nation of Takers
Nicholas EberstadtHenry Wendt Chair In Political Economy
American Enterprise Instituteeberstadt@aei.org
June 20, 2012
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
The Rise And Rise Of EntitlementsTotal Government Transfers to Individuals, 1960-
2010 (in current dollars)
Trill
ions
of c
urre
nt d
olla
rs
Source: Transfers- US Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display. Accessed February 1, 2012
Source: Transfers- US Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display. Accessed February 1, 2012
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Still Exponential After All These YearsTotal Government Transfers to Individuals, 1960-2010,
(Adjusted for Inflation)
Trill
ions
of 2
010
US d
olla
rs
Source: Transfers- US Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display. Accessed February 1, 2012CPI- US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index. Available at ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt. Accessed February 1, 2012.Population- US Census International Data Base, http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php, Accessed February 1, 2012.
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Two And A Half Times Faster Than Per Capita IncomeReal Per Capita Government Transfers to Individuals , 1980-
2010(Constant 2010 Dollars)
2010
Dol
lars
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Composition of Total Government Transfer Payments, 1960-2010(current dollars)
Income maintenance benefits Medicare MedicaidSocial Security Unemployment insurance compensation Other
Billi
ons o
f Dol
lars
, una
djus
ted
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, available at http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
Government Transfer Payments, 1960-2010(adjusted by CPI)
Income maintenance benefits Medicare MedicaidSocial Security Unemployment insurance compensation Other
Billi
ons o
f 201
0 US
Dol
lars
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, available at http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display
Source: The New York Times, February 11, 2012, The Geography of Government Benefits, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/02/12/us/entitlement-map.html?ref=us
1969
2009
Source: The New York Times, February 11, 2012, The Geography of Government Benefits, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/02/12/us/entitlement-map.html?ref=us
Source: Sara Murray. “Nearly Half of U.S. Lives in Household Receiving Government Benefit,” Wall Street Journal, 5 October, 2011.
Source: Ke Bin Wu. “Receipt of Entitlement and Other Safety-net Program Benefits Among Families in 2011,” AARP Public Policy Institute, April 2007.
Source: Family Poverty Rate: US Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables- Families, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/families.html, Accessed January 17, 2012.Household percents: US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract, 1980-2012, http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/, Accessed January 27, 2012, and Sara Murray, “Nearly Half of U.S. Lives in Household Receiving Government Benefit,” Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/05/nearly-half-of-households-receive-some-government-benefit/Unemployment: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/, Accessed January 30, 2012
Households Receiving Public Benefits vs. Unemployment Rate
20092008
20072006
20052004
20032002
20012000
19991998
19971996
19951994
19931992
19911990
19891988
19871986
19851984
19831982
19811980
197913
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
Percent of Households
Perc
ent o
f Hou
seho
lds
Percentage of U.S. Households Receiving Means Tested Public Benefits , 1979-2009
Persons Living in Households Receiving Selected Noncash Benefits: 2009, by age and ethnicity
Source: 2012 Statistical Abstract, Table 543, http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/social_insurance_human_services.html Accessed February 1, 2012.
Under 18 years
18 to 24 years
25 to 34 years
35 to 44 years
45 to 54 years
55 to 59 years
60 to 64 years
65 years and over
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Hispanic Black alone Asian alone White Alone, Non-Hispanic
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Source: Family Poverty Rate: US Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables- Families, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/families.html, Accessed January 17, 2012.Household percents: US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract, 1980-2012, http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/, Accessed January 27, 2012, and Sara Murray, “Nearly Half of U.S. Lives in Household Receiving Government Benefit,” Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/05/nearly-half-of-households-receive-some-government-benefit/Unemployment: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/, Accessed January 30, 2012
Households Receiving Public Benefits vs. Unemployment Rate
20092008
20072006
20052004
20032002
20012000
19991998
19971996
19951994
19931992
19911990
19891988
19871986
19851984
19831982
19811980
197913
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
33
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Perc
ent o
f Hou
seho
lds
Unem
ploy
men
t Rat
eDisconnect:
Households receiving means tested public benefits (%) vs. Unemployment Rate, 1979-2009
19791980
19811982
19831984
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
200910
15
20
25
30
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
12.0
13.0
14.0
15.0
16.0
17.0
18.0
Percent of Households Receiving Means-Tested Noncash Benefits
Percent of Households Receiving Selected Sources of Noncash Benefits and Cash Transfer Payments
Percent of Persons Living in Households Receiving Selected Noncash Benefits
Family Poverty Rate
Source: Family Poverty Rate: US Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables- Families, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/families.html, Accessed January 17, 2012.Household percents: US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract, 1980-2012, http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/, Accessed January 27, 2012, and Sara Murray, “Nearly Half of U.S. Lives in Household Receiving Government Benefit,” Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/05/nearly-half-of-households-receive-some-government-benefit/
Disconnect, Part IIPercent of household receiving selected public benefits vs. Family Poverty Rate
19481950
19521954
19561958
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
US Labor Force Participation Rate 1948-2011, by Gender
Male 20+Female 20+Total 20+
Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, accessed June 15, 2012.
Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, accessed February 27, 2012.
19481950
19521954
19561958
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
Where Did All The Men Go?Labor Force Participation Rate vs. Employment to
Population Ratio, Males 20+,1948-2011
Employment to Population Ratio Labor Force Participation Rate
1948-2008: 12.9 per-centage point drop
Gap in 2010: 6.5 percentage points
Unemployment
Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, accessed February 27, 2012.International Labor Office: http://laborsta.ilo.org/STP/guest , Accessed on February 27, 2012
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20080
20
40
60
80
100
120
Greece
USA
Those Hard-Working Greeks…Labor Force Participation Rate for Males 35-39: USA vs. Greece, 1976-2011
Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=ln, Accessed on February 27, 2012 .Hispanic Language: http://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/language/Education: http://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/data/cps/2011/tables.html
19731974
19751976
19771978
19791980
19811982
19831984
19851986
19871988
19891990
19911992
19931994
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
201160.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
Education and Language Can’t Explain This Male Labor Force Participation Rates by Ethnicity:
1973-2011
African American Hispanic
47.1% of Spanish speakers in USA over 5 years of age 2006-08 speak English “Less Than Very Well”
Percent of men 25 and older without a high school degree in 2011:
African American: 16.2Hispanic: 36.4
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, available at http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=DisplayWhite House Office of Management and Budget, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, Table 15.6.
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
2010
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000Who Pays?
Cost of Medicare and Social Security vs. US Deficit
Deficit Medicaid and Social Security
Billi
ons o
f 201
0 US
Dol
lars
Source: The Human Mortality Database, http://www.mortality.org/cgi-bin/hmd/country.php?cntr=USA&level=1 , Accessed on February 27, 2012 .Social Security Administration, Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2010, http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/di_asr/2010/ accessed February 27, 2012 .The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, accessed February 27, 2012.
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
What Is Wrong With This Picture?Odds of Dying Between Ages 18 and 65 vs. Percentage of Labor Force Ages 18-64 On
Federal Disability Benefits: USA, 1960-2010
Odd
s of d
ying
in w
orki
ng a
ges
Disa
bilit
y to
tota
l peo
ple
18-6
4 in
labo
r for
ce (p
erce
nt)
19701971
19721973
19741975
19761977
19781979
19801981
19821983
19841985
19861987
19881989
19901991
19921993
19941995
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20100.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Unaffordable?Defense Spending As a percent of GDP, 1970-2010
Defense Spending As a percent of GDP
Source: White House Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Table 3.2- Outlays by Function and Subfunction. Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals. Accessed 18 April 2012.
Crowded OutMilitary Spending vs. Government Transfers to Individuals:
1970-2010, Billions of Current Dollars
Source: Transfers- US Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display. Accessed February 1, 2012Military Spending- White House Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Table 3.2- Outlays by Function and Subfunction. Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals. Accessed 18 April 2012.
19701972
19741976
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20100.00
500.00
1000.00
1500.00
2000.00
2500.00
Total Government Transfers Defense Spending
Note: Chart reflects 2004 numbers.Source: Robert Rector and Christine Kim. 2008. “How the Wealth is Spread: The Distribution of Government Benefits, Services and Taxes by Income Quintile in the United States,” Fall 2008 Conference of The Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.
Benefits and Services Received per One Dollar in Taxes Paid
Note: Chart reflects 2004 numbers.Source: Robert Rector and Christine Kim. 2008. “How the Wealth is Spread: The Distribution of Government Benefits, Services and Taxes by Income Quintile in the United States,” Fall 2008 Conference of The Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.
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