a methodology to factor industrial risk into land use planning decisions:
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A methodology to factor Industrial Risk into
Land Use Planning Decisions:
Case Study of Haldia, India
Anandita Sengupta, Ph.D. StudentDebanjan Bandyopadhyay, Ph. D. Student
What is an industrial hazard?
Oil tankers on fire at the IOC depot at Sitapura Industrial Area in Jaipur
• Toxic Release
• Fire
• Explosion
More than 150 industrial clusters in India have
concentration of MAH industries;
Industries in most of these clusters have come up in an
unplanned manner over time;
Such areas have also witnessed high growth of
population over time;
Resultantly, the levels of risk to population from a
potential accident from MAH industries is very high;
The Background
There are various ways to reduce risk to population in
such MAH clusters:
Increase in levels of safety within industries through
better management systems, technology and
training to employees;
Efficient response and mitigation actions to quickly
attain control of a potential accident scenario;
Adoption of preventive measures through effective
land use zoning / planning in the vicinity of the MAH
industries;
Risk Control / Prevention Measures
In India, implementation of Land Use Plans have been
weak in Urban / Industrial areas;
Land Use Planning in industrial areas does not factor
industrial risk;
No regulatory requirement to incorporate industrial risk
as a consideration for Land Use Planning;
Planners do not have access to risk information ;
No standard criteria for risk assessment which can be
translated into Land Use Planning criteria;
The Concerns
How close would you authorise building a school near the two
GPL spheres?
How close would you like to live
near the two LNG spheres?
Industrial risk and Land use planning
To relate industrial risk with Land Use planning: Selection of appropriate accident scenarios; Deciding on risk assessment methodology to be
employed; Deciding on hazard end-points and risk tolerability
criteria; Basis for delineation or restrictions around existing and
new installations;
??
Industrial risk and Land use planning (contd…)
• Haldia town has developed in a haphazard and unplanned manner;
• The land-use is mixed and varied comprising of agricultural land, residential areas, villages and slum clusters, industrial areas, forests and greenbelts, ponds, wetlands and rivers;
• Some typical land-use patterns :
– Planned residential– Industrial– Unplanned mix of residential,
agricultural and rural
Case study town: Haldia
Changes in Landuse
Industrial development
2000s and upcoming – IOC Petronas, Sanjana Cryogenics, Reliance, TATA Power, CESC, IOC refinery, Adani Wilmur, etc.
Objectives and Approach
To draw up a semi-quantitative methodology to
calculate an area measure of societal risk, taking
into account different potential accident scenarios
from a cluster of MAH industries.
Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential x
Damage Factor
− Methodology applied on 100 x 100 M grid for the
entire Haldia planning area
Versatile approach, with scope for setting
benchmarks at each step by policy /regulatory
bodies
Methodology
Step 1 : Calculation of Hazard Intensity
at individual grid points as a result of
industry specific hazard scenarios:
- Setting up of reference scenarios
based on Maximum Credible Loss
Potential for each industry
Methodology
Step 1 : Continued
Defining levels of concerns for hazard intensity
- Explosion : 8psi, 3.5 psi and 1 psi
- Fire : 10KW/m2 (potentially lethal within 60sec. of
exposure), 5KW/m2 (second degree burns within
60 sec.), 2KW/m2 (pain within 60 sec)
- Toxicity – IDLH, I/2 IDLH and 1/3 IDLH
Step 2 : Estimate likelihood of hazard scenario based
on historical accident analysis data (specifically Purple
Book) and rank into classes 1, 2 & 3
Levels of Concern & Footprint generation
Reference Scenario: Toxic gas release (Ammonia)
210 mg/m3
100 mg/m3
50 mg/m3
Threshold value used
Methodology (contd…)
Step 3 : Calculation of Hazard
Potential (HP) at grid points as : HP =
Hazard Intensity x Hazard Probability
Hazard potential stands for a measure
of likelihood of hazard that may be
caused at a point x,y because of a
particular accident
Step 4 : Hazard Potential at a grid
point summed up for multiple scenarios
as : HPs = ∑ HPi
Step 5 : Hazard Potential categorized
into category high, medium & low.
Methodology
Step 6 : Calculation of Damage Factor
= pop density X quality of housing X
sensitivity
− pop density - calculated grid wise
based on decimetric interpolation
method
− quality of housing - predominant
nature of houses in grid - kutcha,
mixed, brick/concrete
− sensitivity - no. of sensitive
receptors present in grid
Aggregate Area Specific Risk= Hazard Potential X Damage Factor
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