a global ocean observing system in a global framework for climate services albert fischer director...

a Global Ocean Observing System in a Global Framework for

Climate Services

Albert FischerDirector a.i., GOOS Project Office, IOC/UNESCO

24 August 2011, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland

Monitoring oceans for climate services:Timescales of climate variability and the ocean

An example from the headlines: drought in East Africa

Monitoring oceans for climate services:IPCC AR4 (2007): 100-year projections of temperature and precipitation for Africa

Famine in East Africa today:Short rains season dry at end 2010 due to negative Indian Ocean Dipole

Williams and Funk 2011, Climate Dynamics

Famine in East Africa today:New research on the role of the expanding Indian Ocean Warm Pool (long rains)

Williams and Funk 2011, Climate Dynamics

Global Framework for Climate Services

GOOS: global in situ elements built for climateclimate GOOS is ocean component of GCOSmany in situ networks implemented by JCOMM

Adequacy of satellite ocean ECVs defined by GOOS/GCOS, coordinated by CEOS, CGMS

Some critical pieces have fragile funding: sustainability is an ongoing concern

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A Framework for Ocean Observing• IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO• GEO Group on Earth Observations• CEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites• POGO Partnership for Observation of the Global Oceans• SCOR Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research• SCAR Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research• GCOS Global Climate Observing System• GOOS Global Ocean Observing System• JCOMM Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine

Meteorology• PICES North Pacific Marine Science Organization• ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea• CoML Census of Marine Life• IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme• WCRP World Climate Research Programme

Input(Requirements)

Output(Data & Products)

Process(Observations)

A Simple System

RequirementRequirement

What to MeasureWhat to Measure

Essential Ocean Variables Essential Ocean Variables

IssuesIssues

Structure of the FrameworkStructure of the Framework

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ObservationsObservations

ArgoArgo

VOSVOS

SatelliteSatelliteConstellationConstellationSOOPSOOP

IOOSIOOS

SatelliteSatellite

… …… …

…

…

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IMOSIMOS

Framework: Societal Driver 2010

Weather & Climate•UNFCCC/IPCC

•WCRP•WMO RRR

Regional•Regional Seas•CCAMLR

Framework: Societal Drivers Next Decade

Fisheries•FAO•RFMOs

Ecosystem services/Biology•CBD•CSD•WSSD

Real-time services•Emergency support•Ocean forecasting

Assessments•Global Marine (UN)•TWAP (GEF)•Regional

Weather & Climate•UNFCCC/IPCC•WCRP•WMO RRR•Climate services

RequirementsExpanded EOVs

Expanded observing systems and networks

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Readiness LevelsReadiness Levels

Concept:Initial articulation of ideas, and appropriatefeasibility studies. Increasing Readiness L

evels

Attributes:Peer review of ideas and studies at science, engineering, and data management community level.

Pilot: Plans evolve from draft to projects andvetted in real-world implementation.

Attributes: Planning, negotiating, testing, and approval within appropriate local, regional,

global arenas.

Mature: Requirements, systems, and data become elements of the sustained global ocean observing system.

Attributes: Products of the global ocean observing system are well understood, documented, consistently available, and

of societal benefit.

Reform of GOOS governance

• 26th Session of the IOC Assembly (22 June - 5 July 2011, Paris) ‘streamlined and strengthened’ GOOS governance– GOOS as a holistic system encompassing global, regional and

coastal observations and products– aligned with a Framework for Ocean Observing oriented to an

essential ocean variable approach– GOOS to set requirements based on the needs global conventions

and agreements in climate, natural hazards, biodiversity, safety of life at sea, marine assessment, and regional conventions

– reinforce global participation through capacity development

• new (interim) GOOS Steering Committee– 5 Member State appointed expert members, up to 10 other expert

members, representatives of relevant implementing and coordinating bodies, sponsors

GOOS in a GFCS: outlook

• GOOS is already designed to the set of requirements for climate monitoring, research, and forecasting, expressed in GCOS documents

• GOOS will animate Framework for Ocean Observing processes in setting requirements, coordinating observations (through JCOMM and other mechanisms), and coordinating data systems (also through JCOMM, IODE, and in cooperation with WIS)

• JCOMM Services also examining their contribution to GFCS• Expand the set of requirements we are feeding - Climate

Services will be potentially provide a new set of requirements, and hopefully bring new sustained support to ocean observations — we need to agree how these requirements are expressed to GOOS

Uncertainty: spread in model precipitation projectionsneed for improved monitoring, research, downscaling

Climate change in coastal systems

• Climate change will– increase vulnerability to extreme events– increase coastal erosion– add to human pressures on the coast– conflict with current paths of human development

• Adaptation costs are less than costs of inaction

Sea level rise: global mean

Sea level rise: observed regional rise

Sea level rise and adaptation: vulnerability