a few reflections & questions on pes...a few reflections & questions on pes from a citizen...

A few reflections & questions on PESfrom a citizen working in the private sector

Presentation given on the occasion of the Synerjob conference organized by the Forem, VDAB & the EU

Laurent Ledoux(ledoux.laurent@gmail.com)

Brussels - 01/12/10

PES in perspective ?1

PES under pressure ?2

Questions for PES ?3

BELGIUM : REAL GDP GROWTH (in %)NBB figures

-4,0-3,5-3,0-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,0

81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11-4,0-3,5-3,0-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,55,0

BN

PP F

ort

isF

orec

asts

Source : Thomson Financial Datastream

PES in perspective ? – GDP & Employment growth

BELGIUM: EMPLOYMENT GROWTH (in %)Figures NBB

-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-4,0

-3,0

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

qoq % annualized yoy %

Source : Thomson Financial Datastream

PES in perspective ? – GDP & Employment growth

PES in perspective ? – GDP & Employment growth

-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5

-2,5-2,0-1,5-1,0-0,50,00,51,01,52,02,53,03,54,04,5

BN

PP F

ort

isF

orec

asts

-2,0

-1,0

0,0

1,0

2,0

0 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10

Employment growth (in %)Employment growth (in %)

Real GDP Growth (in %)

PES in perspective ? – GDP & Employment growth

Time-series analysis in EU Elasticities by country (1970-1998)

USAEU

SpainGermanyUKFranceNetherlandsAustria

Source : The relationship between growth, employment and unemployment in the EU – Ewald Walterskirchen – AustrianInstitute of Economic Research - 1999

7

Belgium

Source : I. Cassiers, Revue Nouvelle march 2009, inspired from B. Bleys

PES in perspective ? – GDP or Indicator for Sustainable Economic Welfare ?

Unemployment rates in the EMU

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

jan/00 jan/01 jan/02 jan/03 jan/04 jan/05 jan/06 jan/07 jan/08 jan/09 jan/100

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

Belgium Ireland Spain Germany EMU Source: Datastream

PES in perspective ? – Diversity at EU level

PES in perspective ? – Diversity explained ?

Source : Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove – Fiscal policy, employment by age, and growth in OECD economies – Universiteit van Gent

PES in perspective ? – Diversity explained ?

Source : Freddy Heylen & Renaat Van de Kerckhove – Fiscal policy, employment by age, and growth in OECD economies – Universiteit van Gent

PES in perspective ? – Diversity explained ? (Education)

CFWB

Source: Mc Kinsey

PES in perspective ? – Increasing importance of other actors ?

Quoted in Private Employement Agencies, temporary agency workers and their contributions to the labour market – ILO - 2009

PES in perspective ? – Increasing importance of other actors ?

Quoted in Private Employement Agencies, temporary agency workers and their contributions to the labour market – ILO - 2009

PES in perspective ? – Increasing importance of other instruments ?

Source : Nuria Rodriguez – Planas – Channels through which Public Employment Services & Small-business AssistancePrograms work – Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (based on data from Romania in 2000 – 2002)

PES in perspective ?1

PES under pressure ?2

Questions for PES ?3

EMU: PUBLIC DEBT (in % of GDP)European Central Bank figures

05

101520253035404550556065707580859095

100

06 07 08 09 10 1105101520253035404550556065707580859095100

EIU forecast

Maastricht Limit

PES under pressure ? – Increasing public debts

EMU GOVERNMENT DEBT IN 2009 (% of GDP)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Austria Belgium Spain Finland France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal

Maastricht Limit: 60%

PES under pressure ? – Diversity in public debts at EU level

EMU GOVERNMENT DEFICIT/SURPLUS IN 2009 (% of GDP)

-16

-15

-14

-13

-12

-11

-10

-9

-8

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

Belgium Spain France Germany Greece Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal

Maastricht Limit

PES under pressure ? – Diversity in deficits

PES under pressure ? – Diversity in public spending (2007 – 2008)

Quoted in KPMG – Meeting the deficit challenge

PES under pressure ? – Diversity in age-related spending pressures

Projected risein spending

to 2030(% of GDP)

Source: IMF

Quoted in KPMG –Meeting the deficit challenge

PES under pressure ? – Diversity in public revenues (2007 – 2008)

Quoted in KPMG – Meeting the deficit challenge

PES under pressure ? – Need be more efficient ?

Question to Public Organizations : Are you radically rethinking your organization’s overall long term strategy to put it in a good position for the next decade ?

Source : KPMG – The wolf is at the door

PES in perspective ?1

PES under pressure ?2

Questions for PES ?3

Source : KPMG – The wolf is at the door

Question to Public Organizations : What do you plan to change as part of your long term strategy ?

Questions for PES ? – Where can PES go when taking into consideration the bigger picture ?

Can PESDo more

with less ?

Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?

Source : Alena Zukersteinova – What skills will Europe need and have in 2020 ? - Cedefop

Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?

Source : Alex Nunn, Tim Bickerstaffe & Ben Mitchell - For an International review of Performance management systems in Public Employment Services - UK Department for Work & Pensions

Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?

Source : ILO – Global employment trends for youth – August 2010

Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?

Source : ILO – Christine Evans-Klock on Ageingpopulation

Questions for PES ? – Should PES try to serve all citizens or be more focused ?

Source : Nuria Rodriguez – Planas – Channels through which Public Employment Services & Small-business AssistancePrograms work – Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (based on data from Romania in 2000 – 2002)

Questions for PES ? – Should/can PES join forces with the school system ?

50 PISA points more leads to 0.9% additional GDP growth in a sustainable way

Source: Mc Kinsey

Questions for PES ? – Should PES centralize or decentralize ? What is the right balance ?

% of people > 18 ynot pursuing studies

in Brussels