a discussion of the technology roadmap for productive nanosystems presented to the world future...

A Discussion of the Technology Roadmap

for Productive Nanosystems

Presented to the World Future Society July 30, 2007

David KeenanSteven VetterHank Lederer

Roadmaps

• Semiconductor Roadmaps for example– Equipment– Materials– Processes– Market and applications

DRAM Feature Size

Source: Sematech

DRAM Technology Options Roadmap

Source: Sematech

Semiconductor Roadmap Technology Characteristics

Source: Sematech

Nanotechnology Development• Phase 1 - Passive nanoparticles

– 2000-2005– In products today

• Phase 2 - Active nanoparticles– 2005-2010– In development and demonstration

• Phase 3 - Nanosystems– 2010-2015

• Phase 4 - Molecular Manufacturing– Beyond 2015

Categories of Nanotechnology• Four categories:

– Top down, not atomically precise (like chips)– Top down, atomically precise (can’t be done)– Bottom-up, not atomically precise (like spray-on materials)– Bottom-up, atomically precise

• Highest value-added

• Lowest waste

• Most complex, multi-disciplinary

• Enables large variety of products made by molecular nanosystems

• Highly disruptive technology

• Need a Roadmap to guide R&D

TerminologyNanosystems

• Interacting nanoscale structures, components, and devices

Functional nanosystems • Nanosystems that process material, energy, or information

Advanced functional nanosystems

• Functional nanosystems that incorporate one or more nanoscale components that have atomically precise structures

Productive nanosystems

• Functional nanosystems that make atomically precise structures, components, and devices under programmable control

Atomically precise manufacturing

• Essential for advanced functional nanosystems and productive nanosystems

Summary of Roadmap Vision Elements for Productive Nanosystems Technology

• Revolutionize the chemical/materials industry by synthesizing nanostructured materials

• Aid in manufacturing platform nanomaterial building blocks to create novel nanostructured material formulations

• Require fundamental understanding of structure-property-processing relationships at the nanoscale to accelerate development

• Require a toolkit of kinetic and thermodynamic modeling capabilities and a database on key nanomaterial building block properties

• Offer new synthetic methodologies based on understanding of nanoscale physics, chemistry, and engineering principles

• Offer new approaches to manufacturing nanomaterial building blocks and nanocomposites due to its biological inspiration

• Enable high-throughput nanoscale screening reactors to create novel material solutions and reveal unique structure-property relationships

Stages of Technology Development

Roadmap Leaders

With contributions from• Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)• NanoBusiness Alliance (NBA)• Nano Science and Technology Institute (NSTI)• Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI)• Biotechnology Industry Organization (BIO)

Steering Committee

Dr. Paul AlivasatosDr. Mauro Ferrari

Doon GibbsWilliam A. Goddard III

Dr. William A. Haseltine

Steve JurvetsonAlex Kawczak

Charles M. LieberScott Mize

John Randall

Jim RobertoNadrian Seeman

Rick SnyderDr. J. Fraser Stoddart

Ted Waitt

Roadmap Goals

• Produce a document that is “actionable”

• Articulate why APM, AFN, & Productive Nanosystems are important, and their critical impact on the development of nanotechnology in multiple timeframes

• Assess the current state of Atomically Precise Manufacturing development

• Identify enabling technologies for development of Advanced Functional Nanosystems & Productive Nanosystems

Roadmap Goals continued

• Develop scenarios of the possible development pathways

• Identify early applications to serve as drivers

• Propose “next steps” in collaborative R&D for each pathway targeted at critical enabling technologies necessary to develop prototypes

• Identify critical issues for each pathway and prioritize the shortcomings of existing enabling technology platforms

• Provide usable metrics for measuring progress

Benefits of Productive Nanosystems Technology Roadmap

• Multidisciplinary framework to shape the visions of future Industry Roadmaps

• Help companies in developing strategic technology plans, including alliance opportunities with other companies

• Basis for coordinating technology research goals and development programs across industries

• Prioritizes major unmet needs and sets technology development targets to fulfill these needs

• Aids in forecasting emerging technology platforms • Identifies emerging value growth opportunities

Estimated Multi-Industry Impact of Nanotechnology Exceeds $1 Trillion by 2015

Source: National Science Foundation

Sustainability $45 B

Healthcare $30 B

Tools $20 B

Aerospace $70 B

Chemical Manufacture $100 B

Pharmaceuticals $180 B

Materials$340 B

Electronics$300 B

Productive Nanosystems: Capabilities and Applications

Productive Nanosystems: Capabilities and Applications

Levels of Productive Capability

Some Atomically Precise Products

Some Applications

Control of monomer

sequence in a chain

Control of monomer positions

in a solid

Control of atomic

positions in a solid

designer catalysts

binders for directingself assembly

polymeric nanoparticles

ceramicnanoparticles

semiconductordevices

superstrongfibers

molecular machines

engineered membranes

smart therapeuticdevices

molecular electronicdevices

petabyte RAMchips

superstrongsmart materials

productivenanosystems

waterpurification

fuel cellmembranes

thin, flexiblesolar cell arrays

programmable cellrepair systems

nanoelectric circuits

aerospacecomposites

• advanced materials

• clean energyproduction

•clean water

• improvedhealth care

• improvedcomputation

• improvedtransportation

Percentage of Roadmap:

Horizon I Horizon II Horizon III Horizon IV

NNI and other Funding

• National Nanotechnology Initiative (NNI) has devoted an average of $1 Billion per year to US R&D since 2001

• Rest of world governments ~ $4 B/yr

Complexity vs. Cost of Phases

• Many simple nanomaterials have been developed within NNI grant budgets

• Several complex nanomaterials are being demonstrated; costs are higher, more time

• Nanosystems may involve more budget than NNI can sustain, and longer timelines

• Molecular manufacturing has received very little NNI funding, so far

Possible Pathways

• Dry – diamondoid– Nanorex, Zyvex

• Wet – DNA/RNA – life chemistry– DNA Walker / Seeman, Rothmund

• Wet/Dry – combinatorial chemistry– Rungs and ladders / Schafmeister

Indications and Implications of Nanotechnology Progress

Near and far future impacts in

• Medicine

• Energy

• Environment / Sustainability

• Manufacturing

• Security / Military

• Space Development

• Computation

Medicine / Pharmaceuticals• Gold nanoparticles

attach to cancer cells and permit non-invasive IR heating

Nanoscale Medical Devices

Nanomedicine by Robert A. Freitas Jr.

Volume I 1999Volume IIA 2003Volume IIB in progressVolume III planned

First thorough analysis of possible applications of molecular nanotechnology to medicine and medical devices

RespiriocytesArtificial mechanical red blood cell ~1 micron dia. sphereDiamondoid 1000-atm pressure vesselDeliver 236x more O2 than natural red cells18 billion structural atoms plus 9 billion O2

Clottocytes

• Artificial mechanical blood platelet

• Response time 100-1000x faster than natural system

• ~ 2 micron spheres release locally sticky mesh that traps blood cells to stop bleeding

Artificial Neurons

Energy • Batteries for

pluggable hybrid vehicles

• Hydrogen storage for fuel cells

• Solar energy

Energy MIT nanowires for Li ion batteries

Gold and cobalt oxide self-assembled on modified virus

Environment / Sustainability• Craig Venter

Synthetic Genomics minimal lifeforms– Method for modified

microorganisms plants to produce ethanol directly from cellulose

– Another to produce hydrogen directly from sunlight

Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels

• MicroFab technologies – ink jet

Manufacturing Printing Solar Panels

• Nanosolar, Inc. – direct printing

• NJIT – printing and directly painted-on

Design for Molecular Manufacturing

Modeling for Molecular Manufacturing

Source Nanorex

Desktop Manufacturing

Convergent assembly using highly parallel systems

Desktop Manufacturing• Nanorex NanoEngineer-1

• Play nanofactory.mov 5 min

Surveillance• Ubiquitous

Surveillance• Sensors/Transmitters

shrink –> smart dust• Can see what

everyone is doing – stop crime– Privacy vs. security– Who watches the

watchers?

DARPA Sensor Challenge

Security / Military

• Military Intelligence is not just an oxymoron– It provides a strong edge in

conflict

• National immune system• MIT’s ISN Institute for

Soldier Nanotechnologies• Personal enhanced

immune system• Weapons disarmament• Volatile transitions

http://web.mit.edu/ISN/

Space Development

• Materials with 80x strength/weight ratio of Al or Steel

• Private orbital craft

• Finally realize Gerard K. O’Neill’s vision of Space Settlements

Island One

Inside Island One

Larger Settlement

Space Development• Eventually, colonize other star systems• Mobile space settlement

– Constant (1-g) acceleration / deceleration– Carry portable fusion generator– Get to Alpha Centauri in about 8 years (4 subjective

years)• Alternatively, teleportation

– Move receiver/assembler to destination• Can use laser-propelled solar sail

– Analyze molecular structure of people / objects– Transmit analysis– Assemble copy

Electronics / Computation• K. Eric Drexler’s

PhD Thesis (MIT) – Nanosystems

• 1992 Computer Science book of the year

Rod Logic

Sugar-cube-size computer 1015 MIPS

Electronics / Computation• Ray Kurzweil forecasts human-level intelligence ~2020• Once achieved, “evolution” will greatly accelerate

Productive Nanosystems

New Futures in

• Medicine

• Energy

• Environment / Sustainability

• Manufacturing

• Security / Military

• Space Development

• Computation

Roadmap Status

International Technology Roadmap for Productive Nanosystems

to be unveiled

October 9-10, 2007

in Arlington, VA

For a complete program, see

www.foresight.org or

www.sme.org/nanosystems

Q & A

• Which path do you favor?

• When will we see productive nanosystems?

David Keenan – smalltechnology@gmail.com

Steve Vetter – svetter@mmei.com

Hank Lederer – ledererhank@cs.com