4 th annual strategy and security conference
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4th Annual Strategy and Security Conference
Challenges & Threats:the Future of the Transatlantic
Alliance
Philip WorréExecutive Director, International Security Information Service,
Europe
8 March 2013
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Presentation
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
o Introductiono Security Dimensiono Political & Strategic Dimensiono The Future…
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
Introduction
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Introduction
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
o Two ways of looking at subjecto « Alliance »o Transatlantic alliance
o Two Parts• Defined security threats and challenges• Political/strategic threats and challenges
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Introduction
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
o Transatlantic allianceo Washington Treatyo Up to end of Cold War
o US umbrellao Limited European capabilities
o Post Cold War erao Ex-Yugoslaviao Development of autonomous European
Capabilites
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Introduction
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
o NATO and EU: Main actorso Transatlantic alliance vital for Europe’s
securityo NATO’s role enshrined in Lisbon Treatyo EU-NATO cooperation – Berlin Plus
o Advantages of EU-NATO cooperationo Multiplication of options in crisis
management responseo Financial crisis: pooling & sharing/SDI
Introduction
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
o Last decade: evolution in the understanding and definition of global threats
• No state border and non-state actors• Dimensions: political, economic, social
and environmental• Hybrid threats: “are those posed by
adversaries, with the ability to simultaneously employ conventional and non-conventional means adaptively in pursuit of their objectives.” (NATO ACT)
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
Security Dimension
Security Dimension
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
o Emerging Security Challenges• Terrorism• Proliferation of WMDs• Cyber attacks• Piracy and maritime security• Energy and environmental security• State failure
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Security Dimension
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
o NATO’s response• Emerging Security Challenges Division
(ESCD) created within NATO international staff in August 2010
• Brought together various existing fields of expertise into a single division
• Stuctural response to hybrid, inter-related and cross-cutting threats
• Fruit of several years of discussions, consulting, debates and analysis
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
o European Union• Approach: fragmented and less
coordinated• Developed sectorial action programmes• Drafted resolutions and threat-specific
strategies• Confronted to hurdles• « Soft Power » dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Security Dimension
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
o Key EU documents
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Security Dimension
European Security Strategy(2003)
• Terrorism• Proliferation of WMDs• Regional Conflicts• State Failure• Organised Crime
Report on the Implementation of
the ESS (2008)
•Terrorism• Proliferation of WMDs•Organised Crime•Cyber Security•Energy Security•Climate Change
Internal Security Strategy(2010)
•Terrorism•Serious and organised crime•Cyber-crime•Cross-border crime•Violence itself•Natural and man-madedisasters
Philip Worré, Executive Director, International Security Information Service, Europe
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Security Dimension
o Institutional complexity• CFSP and CSDP• Decision-making process• Leader, enabler or follower according to
issueo Role of the EU in global security
• Focus on immediate neighbourhood• Mandate of EU as security actor
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Security threats – common pointso Unpredictableo Changing/evolving natureo Cross-dimensionalo Response defined in a strategy
o Beyond: political and strategic challengeo Main challenge to the future of the
Transatlantic Alliance: relevance
Security Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Relevanceo How to remain relevant in a world of
emergingo Global powerso Middle powerso Nuclear stateso Regional security organisationso Powerful communication technology
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Backdropo Financial Crisiso Capability gapso Decrease in political will (crisis
management)o Increasingly involved public opinion
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Relevance is a “must”o Credibility
o Failed/lack of intervention – less deterrence
o Not omnipotenceo One’s voice should be heardo Credible solutions to conflict management
o Selected examples of challenges
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Global Powerso China
o Increased militarisationo Rise of tensions territorial waterso Insatiable appetite for natural resourceso Economic superpowero Increased projection powero Increased participation in crisis
management operations
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Global Powerso India
o Increasing projection powero From regional sphere of influence to
global
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Middle Powerso South Korea
o Desire for more autonomyo Militarised – hard powero Wants to develop its political powero Fully assumes its new status
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Regional Security Organisationso Africa
o AUo ECOWAS – broadening of mandateo Still in cooperation with transatlantic
actorso SCOo ASEAN
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Nuclear Powerso Iran
o Technological developmento P5+1 Talks stalledo Expanding its capabilities
o North Koreao Provocativeo Satellite launcho Nuclear testso Sanctions not working
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Importance of Asia in 21st centuryo Recognised by the US
o “Pivot to Asia”o Participation in 2012 ASEAN summito Attempt to remain relevant
o Recognised by Russiao Question for Europe?
o “What does the ‘Pivot’ mean for EU-US relations?”
o “What about us?”o Fear
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Question of NATO and solidarity?o Relevance of Art. Vo No more large scale “Afghanistan-type”
responses under Art. Vo Pre-2001 and Post-2001 Art. V
o Meaning?o Loss of solidarity?
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Regional actiono Arab Spring
o Enthusiasmo Moderate enthusiasmo Hesitation and reluctanceo Shift in public opinion – perceived lack
of coherent action/policyo EU’s role
o Libya – efforts stalledo Mali – late action
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Challenge not only externalo Within Europe and North America: changing dynamics
o New technology - Public opiniono War posted on Youtubeo More informed – facts, dates, data, statisticso More dis-/misinformed
o No such thing as “raw” materialo Everyone has an opinion
o Impact of “Wikileaks” – tension, distrusto Civil society pushing for increased oversight
o More informed, more critical
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Additional factor: Financial Crisiso Major impact
o Defence industryo Defence budgetso Increasing oversight and supervision on
private practiceso Catalyst – loss of relevance
o Decreased national military capabilities
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Internal systemic issueso Current crisis management tools
o Designed according to institution’s strategy
o Could work, but don’to Example: EU battlegroups
o Never deployedo Commitment gapo Internal institutional challenges
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Additional factor: Financial Crisiso Loss of trust, increased gap between
governing bodies and public opiniono Reflected during elections – populism /
extremismo Impact at the highest levels
Political & Strategic Dimension
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
The Future…
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Challengingo No miracle solution: realisation that we live
in a different worldo Remaining relevant
o Take full advantage of opportunities
The Future…
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Accept presence of other actorso Cooperate in spirit of trust
o Identify common goalso Work togethero Military Exercises / Exchangeso Crisis management cooperation
o Anti-piracy Horn of Africa operations
The Future…
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Accept presence of other actorso Cooperate in spirit of trust
o Understanding of the “other”o Maintain pragmatic approacho Create constructive atmosphere
o Be active and involvedo Provide mediation and communication
channelso P5+1 Talks / 6 Party Talks
The Future…
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Crisis Management: recreate tools adapted to our contemporary worldo Pragmatic approacho “Comprehensive” / CivMilo Easily deployable units
o Including decision-making processo Clear mandate
o Define what “alliance” meanso Important for all to understand
o Define NATO’s/EU’s mission/role
The Future…
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
o Consolidate the acquis and reinforce transatlantic alliance through other meanso US-EU FTAo Develop SDI / P&S initiativeso Crisis provides opportunities
o Take public opinion / civil society into accounto Take initiative in informing
o Prevent someone else from doing ito Development of public diplomacy actionso Oversight/Responsibility
o Communication is crucial
The Future…
Challenges & Threats: the Future of the Transatlantic Alliance
Questions
4th Annual Strategy and Security Conference
Challenges & Threats:the Future of the Transatlantic
Alliance
Philip WorréExecutive Director, International Security Information Service,
Europe
director@isis-europe.eu
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