3. erm tm 3

MOHAMAD HASSAN AK., MAFIS, QIA, CRMP, CRMA

Sejauhmana dampak dari events dapat mengganggu

objectives.

Menghitung Inherent maupun Residual risk

Events dianalisis dalam dua perspectives:

Likelihood

Impact

Risk = Likelihood * Consequence

Catastrophic

Major

Moderate

Minor

Insignificant

Certain

Likely

Moderate

Unlikely

Rare

Risks

2

1

3

Likely

Moderate

Unlikely

Remote

Insignificant Minor Moderate Major Catastrophic

S S H H H

M

L

L

L M S

H

H

H H

H

S

S

S S

M

Almost Certain

a

b

d

e

Lik

elih

oo

d o

f Occu

rren

ce

Consequence

c

f

High

Medium

Low

Low Medium High

Magnitude of Impact

Pro

ba

bil

ity o

f O

cc

urr

en

ce

Your Risk Appetite

Mission Critical Risks

RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS

RISK IDENTIFICATION

RISK MEASUREMENT

RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL

RISK MONITORING RISK

MGT

PROCESS

RISK MEASUREMENT PROCESS

ABSOLUTE / INHERENT RISK MEASUREMENT

RESIDUAL RISK MEASUREMENT

EXISTING RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL EVALUATION

RISK MEASUREMENT – ADDITIONAL PROCESS

ADDITIONAL RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL

IMPLEMENTATION & EVALUATION

EXPECTED / TOLERABLE RISK MEASUREMENT

RISK MEASUREMENT – GENERAL FORMULA

INHERENT RISK – EXISTING RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL = RESIDUAL RISK

RESIDUAL RISK – ADDITIONAL RISK MITIGATION / CONTROL = EXPECTED /

TOLERABLE RISK

RISK MEASUREMENT – FORMULA VISUALIZATION

INHERENT

RISK

RESIDUAL

RISK EXPECTED

RISK

EXISTING

CONTROL ADDITIONAL

CONTROL

RISK MEASUREMENT – EXPECTED LOSS (ON ASSETS)

RISK OF LOOSING ASSETS

RISK OF DECREASING VALUE OF ASSETS

SMALL, PORTABLE, VALUABLE

BIG, PORTABLE, VALUABLE

BIG, NOT PORTABLE, VALUABLE

STOLEN

STOLEN, FIRE

FIRE

SMALL, PORTABLE, VALUABLE

BIG, PORTABLE, VALUABLE

BIG, NOT PORTABLE, VALUABLE

POOR HANDLING

POOR MAINTENANCE

POWER FAILURE

RISK MEASUREMENT – EXPECTED LOSS (ON ASSETS)

RISK PROFILE

ASSETS CHARACTERISTICS RISKS RISK

EXPOSURES

A SMALL,

PORTABLE,

VALUABLE

STOLEN, POOR

HANDLING HIGH

B BIG, PORTABLE,

VALUABLE

STOLEN, FIRE,

POOR

MAINTENANCE

MEDIUM

C BIG, NOT

PORTABLE,

VALUABLE

FIRE, POWER

FAILURE MEDIUM

D SMALL,

PORTABLE,

VALUABLE

STOLEN, POOR

HANDLING LOW

RISK HANDLING

PRIORITY

1ST

2ND

2ND

3RD

RISK MEASUREMENT (LIKELIHOOD – IMPACT MATRIX)

RISK = LIKELIHOOD X IMPACT

RISK MEASUREMENT FORMULA

CERTAIN

LIKELIHOOD

LIKELY

MODERATE

UNLIKELY

RARE

CATASTROPHIC / EXTREME

IMPACT

MAJOR / HIGH

MODERATE / MEDIUM

MINOR / LOW

INSIGNIFICANT

RISK MEASUREMENT (LIKELIHOOD IMPACT MATRIX)

I = 1 L = 2 M = 3 H = 4 E = 5

IMPACT

R = 1

U = 2

M = 3

L = 4

C = 5

1 2 3 4 5

2 4 6 8 10

3 6 9 12 15

4 8 12 16 20

5 10 15 20 25

L

I

K

E

L

I

H

O

O

D

L

I

1 – 2 = I

15 – 25 = E

10 – 12 = H

5 – 9 = M

3 – 4 = L

RISK SCALE

RISK MEASUREMENT (LIKELIHOOD – IMPACT MATRIX)

CERTAIN = MORE THAN 5 TIMES A YEAR

LIKELIHOOD

LIKELY = 3 – 5 TIMES A YEAR

MODERATE = 2 TIMES A YEAR

UNLIKELY = ONCE IN A YEAR

RARE = ONCE IN MORE THAN A YEAR

IMPACT

EXTREME

HIGH

MEDIUM

LOW

INSIGN

FIN NON FIN

USD. > 1000 T

USD.>500–1000T

USD.>100–500 T

USD.1 – 100 T

< USD.1 T

INT’L

NATIONAL

ORG

DEPT

SECT

RISK MEASUREMENT (LIKELIHOOD – IMPACT MATRIX)

RISK PROFILE

RISKS RISK VALUE

LH IP TV

RISK

EXPOSURES

RISK HANDLING

PRIORITY ACTIVITIES

5 1 5 M 3RD A 1

2 5 10 H 2ND B

3 1 3 L 4TH A 2

2 1 2 I 5TH A 3

4 5 20 E 1ST C

NOTES :

LH = LIKELIHOOD

IP = IMPACT

TV = TOTAL VALUE

I = INSIGNIFICANT

L = LOW

M = MEDIUM

H = HIGH

E = EXTREME

RISK MEASUREMENT – RISK FACTORS

VALUE OF ASSETS

LIQUIDITY OF ASSETS

COMPLEXITY OF ACTIVITY

VOLUME OF ACTIVITY

FACTORS INCREASE / DECREASE RISK EXPOSURE

RISK MEASUREMENT – RISK FACTORS

RISK PROFILE – ACTIVITY A

RISK

HANDLING

PRIORITY

2ND

3RD

RISKS

1

2

3 1ST

RISK

FACTORS

A

B

A

A

C

RISK FACTOR

SCORE

1

2

1

1

3

RISK FACTOR

WEIGHT

20%

80%

100%

40%

60%

RISK VALUE

0,2 + 1,6 = 1,8

1

0,4 + 1,8 = 2,2

UNSUR RISIKO - KEMUNGKINAN (PROBABILITY)

No RISIKO (EVENT)

Code

Risiko A B C D E F G H I Rata-2

1 Bahan baku tidak tersedia dipasar # 1 2 3 3 8 2 3 5 3 3 3.6

2 Penunjukkan langsung rekanan tanpa proses tender # 2 3 4 4 8 9 7 4 3 4 5.1

3 Bahan baku yang diterima tidak sesuai spesifikasi. # 3 6 6 9 8 6 5 7 9 6 6.9

4

Rekanan wanprestasi (tidak mampu memenuhi

pesanan) # 4 2 2 4 8 2 5 3 2 2 3.3

5 Pembelian bahan baku tanpa otorisasi # 5 2 5 5 7 8 5 3 1 5 4.6

6

Terjadi gempa bumi yang menghambat pengiriman

bahan. # 6 1 1 7 3 2 1 3 1 1 2.2

7 Kapal laut pengangkut bahan baku tenggelam di laut # 7 1 1 5 5 2 1 3 1 5 2.7

8 PO diterbitkan tanpa adanya PR # 8 2 2 7 7 7 5 3 1 7 4.6

9 Terjadi perampokan bahan baku dalam perjalanan. # 9 2 2 4 7 4 5 6 4 2 4.0

10

Tidak ada performance evaluation yang standar

terhadap rekanan #10 5 4 5 6 3 5 2 2 2 3.8

11 Fluktuasi harga bahan baku yang tidak stabil #11 3 7 8 9 7 5 4 5 7 6.1

12

Otorisasi purchasing dilakukan oleh petugas yang

tidak berwenang #12 2 4 7 7 7 5 2 2 4 4.4

13

Adanya kebijakan pemerintah yang mengatur masalah

purchasing #13 1 2 7 8 2 7 3 1 2 3.7

14

Harga bahan baku di atas patokan harga dasar

pembelian #14 3 3 1 9 5 5 3 1 5 3.9

15 Fluktuasi nilai mata uang asing (kurs mata uang) #15 9 7 6 9 7 5 3 5 5 6.2

UNSUR RISIKO - DAMPAK (IMPACT)

No RISIKO (EVENT)

Code

Resiko A B C D E F G H I

Rata-2

1 Bahan baku tidak tersedia dipasar # 1 9 6 8 10 9 10 6 2 9 7.7

2 Penunjukkan langsung rekanan tanpa proses tender # 2 7 6 2 9 5 10 5 2 10 6.2

3 Bahan baku yang diterima tidak sesuai spesifikasi. # 3 9 8 6 7 8 7 8 8 9 7.8

4

Rekanan wanprestasi (tidak mampu memenuhi

pesanan) # 4 7 5 3 10 9 5 4 1 3 5.2

5 Pembelian bahan baku tanpa otorisasi # 5 8 6 5 9 4 5 5 1 5 5.3

6

Terjadi gempa bumi yang menghambat pengiriman

bahan. # 6 7 6 8 10 9 10 5 1 6 6.9

7 Kapal laut pengangkut bahan baku tenggelam di laut # 7 5 6 9 10 9 10 5 1 8 7.0

8 PO diterbitkan tanpa adanya PR # 8 5 7 5 8 2 5 6 1 5 4.9

9 Terjadi perampokan bahan baku dalam perjalanan. # 9 4 8 5 10 8 10 8 8 10 7.9

10

Tidak ada performance evaluation yang standar

terhadap rekanan #10 5 6 5 8 2 5 4 1 5 4.6

11 Fluktuasi harga bahan baku yang tidak stabil #11 5 7 6 9 7 7 6 10 7 7.1

12

Otorisasi purchasing dilakukan oleh petugas yang

tidak berwenang #12 5 6 6 8 2 5 3 1 6 4.7

13

Adanya kebijakan pemerintah yang mengatur masalah

purchasing #13 7 5 8 10 8 10 6 1 8 7.0

14

Harga bahan baku di atas patokan harga dasar

pembelian #14 8 6 3 9 7 5 4 1 3 5.1

15 Fluktuasi nilai mata uang asing (kurs mata uang) #15 9 6 5 9 5 5 7 10 5 6.8

0.00

5.00

10.00

0.00 5.00 10.00

Ke

mu

ng

kin

an

Dampak

Risiko

RISK MAPPING IN RISK ASSESSMENT PROCESS

No RISIKO (EVENT)

Code

Risiko Likelihood Impact

1 Bahan baku tidak tersedia dipasar # 1 3.56 7.67

2 Penunjukkan langsung rekanan tanpa proses tender # 2 5.11 6.22

3 Bahan baku yang diterima tidak sesuai spesifikasi. # 3 6.89 7.78

4 Rekanan wanprestasi (tidak mampu memenuhi pesanan) # 4 3.33 5.22

5 Pembelian bahan baku tanpa otorisasi # 5 4.56 5.33

6 Terjadi gempa bumi yang menghambat pengiriman bahan. # 6 2.22 6.89

7 Kapal laut pengangkut bahan baku tenggelam di laut # 7 2.67 7.00

8 PO diterbitkan tanpa adanya PR # 8 4.56 4.89

9 Terjadi perampokan bahan baku dalam perjalanan. # 9 4.00 7.89

10 Tidak ada performance evaluation yang standar terhadap rekanan #10 3.78 4.56

11 Fluktuasi harga bahan baku yang tidak stabil #11 6.11 7.11

12 Otorisasi purchasing dilakukan oleh petugas yang tidak berwenang #12 4.44 4.67

13 Adanya kebijakan pemerintah yang mengatur masalah purchasing #13 3.67 7.00

14 Harga bahan baku di atas patokan harga dasar pembelian #14 3.89 5.11

15 Fluktuasi nilai mata uang asing (kurs mata uang) #15 6.22 6.78