2q’ 14 macroeconomic indexes and market indicators review nai becar , july 2014
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2Q’ 14 Macroeconomic indexes and market indicators reviewNAI Becar, July 2014
MACROECONOMIC INDEXES REVIEW:
RUSSIATHE USA
GDP
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140
5
10
15
20
0.76 0.99
1.30 1.66 1.22 1.49
1.86 2.02 2.22 2.24
12.56 13.32
13.96 14.22 13.90 14.42
14.99 15.81
15.09 15.39
Russia Linear (Russia) The USA Linear (The USA)b
ln, $
Source: Ministry of Economic Development (Russia)
Unemployment rate
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014 May 20140%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
6.0%
6.2%
8.3%
7.3%6.5%
5.5% 5.5% 5.6%
4.9%
4.7%
6.7%
10.0% 9.8% 8.6%
7.7%
7.0%6.7%
6.3%
Russia The USA%
Source: Russian Federal Statistics service
Unemployment rate
Source: Russian Federal Statistics service, The Linneman’s presentation 1Q’ 14
Russia The USA
High unemployment rate
The Republic of Ingushetia
43,7% New York City, NY 7,1%
The Chechen Republic26,9%
Miami, FL 7,2%
The Tyva Republic 19,3% Chicago, IL 7,9%
Middle unemployment rate
Perm Krai 6,5% Atlanta, GA 6,9%
Orlovskaya oblast 5,8% Philadelphia, PA 6,3%
Low unemployment rate
Moscow 1,7% Washington, D.C. 4,8%
Saint Petersburg 1,5% Houston, TX 5,2%
Moscow Oblast 2,8% Dallas, TX 5,3%
CPI
2012 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 201498%
99%
100%
101%
102%
103%
104%
105%
106%
107%
108%
106.6%
106.5%
102.3%
104.8%
101.7%
101.5% 101.5%
102.1%
Russia The USA
%
Source: Russian Federal Statistics service
Money supply
2009 2010 2011 2012 41609 41640 417910
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
381.64
449.05
588.59
720.09
857.86
923.67 889.58
Russiab
ln. $
Source: The Bank of Russia
Retail Volume
1/1/2009 1/1/2010 1/1/2011 1/1/2012 1/1/2013 1/1/20140
100
200
300
400
Russiab
ln.,
$
337,80
36,77
348,42
39,88 45,41
374,50
50,82
397,87416,54
57,02 61,73
423,94
Retail volume%
Internet sales % of retail volume
Source: The Linneman’s presentation 1Q’ 14
Industrial production
index
Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-1380%
90%
100%
110%
120%
106.4% 106.6% 106.1%
103.6%
99.6%
92.6%
95,2%
98.4%
101.6%
103.7%
Russia
%
Source: Russian Federal Statistics service
MACROECONOMIC ENDEXES REVIEW:
RUSSIAMOSCOWSAINT PETERSBURG
GDP/GRP
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 F0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
21,609.80
26,917.20
33,247.50
41,276.80
38,807.20
46,308.50
55,799.60
62,599.10
67,381.00 68,054.81
666.39 825.10 1,119.70 1,431.80 1,475.80 1,699.50 2,071.80 2,138.00 2,206.40 2,228.06
4,135.20 5,260.20 6,696.30
8,248.70 7,127.00 8,375.90
10,021.60 11,152.00 12,000.00 12,120.00
Russia Saint Petersburg Moscowb
ln. r
ub
.
Source: Ministry of Economic Development , Petrostat, Mosgorstat
Unemployment rate
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014 May 2014
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
7.1% 7.1%
6.0% 6.2%
8.3%
7.3%
6.5%
5.5%
5.5%
5.6%
4.9%
2.2%2.4%
2.1% 2.0%
4.1%
2.6%
2.0%
1.1%
2.0% 1.9%
1.6%
0.8%
1.6%
0.8% 0.9%
2.8%
1.8%1.4%
0.8%
2.0%1.8% 1.6%
Russia Saint Petersbug Moscow
%
Source: Russian Federal Statistics servicePetrostat, Mosgorstat
Series1Cost Income
CPI
2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 201498%
100%
102%
104%
106%
108%
110%
108.8%
106.1% 106.6%106.5%
102.3%
104.8%
109.4%
105.9%106.1%
106.7%
103.0%
105.8%
109.0%
106.0%
107.3%
106.2%
102.7%
104.6%
Russia Saint Petersburg Moscow%
Source: Russian Federal Statistics servicePetrostat, Mosgorstat
Money supply
2009 2010 2011 2012 41609 41640 417910
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
12,975.90
15,267.60
20,011.90
24,483.1129,167.30
31,404.70 30,245.60
Russiab
ln r
ub
.
Source: The Central Bank of The Russian Federation
Money Supply
Source: The Central Bank of The Russian Federation
Russia27,000
27,500
28,000
28,500
29,000
29,500
30,000
30,500
28,083.50
30 245,60
Russia
Income Cost
bln
ru
b.
Structure of the Federal budget
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*0
5
10
15
20
25
1816.3
18.9 17.919.6 20,5 19.3 18,3
23,4 22,5 22,4
19,620,4 20,6
20,118,9
Cost Income
GD
P, %
Russia
Source: Ministry of Economic Development
* target indicator
Structure of the budget
Moscow
Source: http://budget.mos.ru/
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
13,8
11.2
14.213.2 13.9 13.3 12.4 12.5
14,0 15,9
16,2
13,4
14,8 13,814,8 13,6
GR
P, %
* target indicator
Series1Cost Income
Structure of the budget
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014*0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
38,9 41,0
28.2
20.4 19.3 17.5 17.7 18.5
41,7
43,1
28,8
21,1 19,517,6
19,3 19,4
Cost Income
GR
P, %
Saint Petersburg
Source: The Committee of Economic Policy and Strategic Panning
* target indicator
Capitalization Rates
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014
2Q20140%
5%
10%
15%
20%
9.00% 8.50% 9.50%9.50%
0.00%
9.80%9.25% 9.50% 9.50%
0.00%
9.50%9.50% 9.75% 9.75%
0.00%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q2014 2Q20140%
5%
10%
15%
20%
11.30%11.00%
11.25%11.25%
0.00%
12.30%
11.00%
12.00%12.00%
0.00%
11.35%12.00% 12.25% 12.25%
0.00%
Off
ice
Ret
ail
Sto
rag
e
Source: NAI Becar internal data
2Q 2014
Retail Market Review
(Moscow & Saint Petersburg)
Main market indicators Moscow Saint Petersburg
Totaling, GLA 4 710 000 sq.m. 3 440 000 sq.m.
Growth dynamics compared to 1Q 2014.
+3,2% 0 %
Put into operation, GLA 144 000 sq.m. 0 тыс. кв.м
Dynamics of putting into operation compared to 1Q 2014.
+25% -100 %
Vacancy. 4,58% 7,2%
Vacancy dynamics compared to 1Q 2014.
+1,6% -8%
2Q 2014 New Deliveries
3.0%
97.0%
Moscow
New Deliveries
100.0%
Saint Petersburg
1Q 2011 1Q 2012 1Q 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 20140
50
100
150
200
250
300270
63
8
240
144
35 36
120
15.90
New deliveries
10
00
sq
.m.
2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014 2Q 20142,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
3,5303,732
4,371 4,566 4,710
2,807 3,0903,424 3,440 3,440
Total supply, GLA
Moscow Saint Petersburg
10
00
sq
.m.
2Q 2014Rental rate for anchor tenants
280 – 2 260rub/sq.m. per annum
100 - 800$/sq.m. per annum
300 - 1 100rub/sq.m. per annum
105 - 388$/sq.m. per annum
Rental rate per sq.m.
1 400 - 12 750rub. per month
500 – 4 500$ per annum
700 – 5 800rub. per month
247 – 2 047$ per annum
Availability for 1000 people (GLA). 393 sq.m. 684 sq.m.
Availability dynamics compared to 1Q 2014
+3,2 % 0%
Main market indicators Moscow Saint Petersburg
2Q 2014
Office Market Review
(Moscow & Saint Petersburg)
Main market indicators
Moscow Saint Petersburg
А В+ В С А В+ В С
Totaling, GLA 12 916 sq.m. 3 356 sq.m.
Growth dynamics compared to 1Q 2014.
+ 1,4 % +1,7%
Totaling , GLA3 734000
sq.m.
5 691000
sq.m.
2 264 000
sq.m.
1 227 000
sq.m.
700 000
sq.m.
669 000
sq.m.
810 000
sq.m.
1 177000
sq.m.
Put into operation, GLA 174 sq.m. 54,7 sq.m.
Put into operation, GLA174000
sq.m.
0sq.m.
0sq.m.
0sq.m.
44 100 sq.m.
8 700sq.m.
0sq.m
1 900sq.m.
Vacancy 18,2% 10,7% 12,6% 3,0% 16,4% 6,9% 8,9% 4,1%
Vacancy dynamics compared to 1Q 2014
+9 % +29% +18% -8% -10% -1% -3% +28%
Office Class A,B+,B,C
27 %
45 %
18 %
10 %
Moscow
Class А
Class В+
Class В
Class С
21%
20 %
24 %
35 %
Saint Petersburg
Rental rate per sq.m.
2 330rub. per month
823$ per
annum
1 663rub. per
month
587$ per
annum
1 390rub. per
month
491$ per
annum
860 rub. per
month
304$ per annu
m
1 525rub. per
month
540$ per
annum
1 230rub. per month
435$ per
annum
990rub. per month
350$ per
annum
830rub. per
month
290 $ per
annum
Rental rate dynamics compared to 1Q 2014.
-4% -5% -5% 0% +1,7% -4,1 % +3,9% 0%
Average availability (GLA) for 1 000 people.
1 078 sq.m. 668 sq.m.
Availability for 1000 people (GLA).
312 sq.m.
475 sq.m.
189 sq.m.
102sq.m.
139sq.m.
133sq.m.
161sq.m.
234 sq.m.
Availability dynamics compared to 3Q 2013.
+10% +0,8% 0 % 0 % +7% +1% 0% +0,2%
2010 2011 2012 2013 1Q 2014
2Q20140
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
9,28710,14410,552
1018311,35512,881
1,565 1,728 1,826 2,079 2,127 2,179
Moscow Saint Petersburg
10
00
sq
.m.
Office А,В,В+, GLA
1Q 2010
1Q 2011
1Q 2012
1Q 2013
1Q 2014
2Q 2014
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
266294
179 187
66
140
35.4 27 34.38.8
47.5 54.7
New deliveries
10
00
sq
.m.
Main market indicators
Moscow Saint Petersburg
А В+ В С А В+ В С
2Q 2014
Storage Market Review
(Moscow & Saint Petersburg)
Main market indicatorsMoscow Saint Petersburg
А В А В
Totaling, GLA 10 026 000 sq.m. 1 585 000 sq.m.
Growth dynamics compared to 1Q 2014
+ 2,5% 0%
Totaling, GLA 7 362 000 sq.m.
2 665 000 sq.m
1 080 000 sq.m
505 000 sq.m.
Put into operation, GLA 245 000 sq.m. 0%
Put into operation, GLA245 000
sq.m.0
sq.m.0
sq.m.0
sq.m.
Dynamics of putting into operation compared to 1Q 2014.
- 17% 0% 0% 0%
Storage Class A, B
72 %
28 %
Class А
Class В
Saint Petersburg
Moscow
Vacancy 3,4% 2,8% 8,5% 1,9%
Rental rate per sq.m.
350 - 434rub. per month
125 - 155 $ per
annum
308 - 392rub. per month
110 - 140 $ per
annum
350 - 380rub. per month
125 - 135 $ per
annum
270 - 340rub. per month
95 - 120$ per annum
Rental rate dynamics compared to 1Q 2014
0% - 7,7% +7% -2%
Availability for 1000 people (2Q 2014)
837 sq. m. 315 sq. m.
Main market indicators
Moscow Saint Petersburg
А В А В
Total supply
1Q 2014 2Q 20140
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
1,585 1,585
9,782 9,894
Saint Petersburg Moscow
10
00
sq
. m.
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