29 march daily technical trader
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COPYRIGHT: No part of this document may be reproduced without the explicit written permission of QNBFS Page 1 of 6
Daily Technical Trader – Qatar
Sunday, 29 March 2015
Stocks Covered Today
Ticker Price Target
GISS 87.20 89.00
DHBK 49.65 50.50
QSE Index
Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)
Last 11,410.76 -0.8 4.8
Resistance/Support
Levels 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 11,500 11,600 11,700
Support 11,450 11,350 11,200
QSE Index Commentary
Overview: The QSE Index closed at the 11,410.76 level and lost 0.98% from the week before. The Index maintained its level above 11,300 level which is an essential support level to be sustained. A sustained break below the 11,300 level could add the risk of creating Head and Shoulders reversal pattern in the medium-long term. The candlestick created last Thursday pertains upward volatility against the short-term down trend, and thus we expect the bounce to continue to the 11,500 level. Expected Resistance Level: 11,500 Expected Support Level: 11,350
QSE Index (Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
QE Summary
Market Indicators 26 Mar 15 25 Mar 15 %Ch.
Value Traded (QR mn) 545.6 272.8 100.0
Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 617.5 622.5 -0.8
Volume (mn) 12.1 6.0 99.7
Number of Trans. 7,649 4,002 91.1
Companies Traded 41 39 5.1
Market Breadth 9:30 8:29 –
QE Indices
Market Indices Close 1D% RSI
Total Return 17,654.96 -0.5 35.0
All Share Index 3,047.89 -0.7 33.8
Banks 3,108.54 -0.7 38.5
Industrials 3,714.05 -0.1 29.0
Transportation 2,396.23 0.3 38.2
Real Estate 2,299.29 -1.3 37.2
Insurance 4,069.43 -2.2 49.1
Telecoms 1,309.32 -1.3 35.4
Consumer 6,815.96 -1.1 30.0
Al Rayan Islamic 4,168.53 -0.8 37.3
RSI 14 (Over Bought)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
RSI 14 (Over Sold)
Ticker Close 1D% RSI
QOIS 13.76 -4.4 20.8
DBIS 35.25 -5.2 22.6
QFLS 178.50 -1.7 23.8
SIIS 12.75 -4.0 24.5
QGTS 22.20 -0.4 25.9
QSE Index (30min)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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GISS
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 87.20 -0.34 488,528
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 87.50 89.00 91.00
Support 86.00 85.00 82.00
Commentary
Overview: GISS had a strong rebound above QR82.00 which was a strong support created from the previous trough and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. This bullish candle suggests buying may continue another session towards the top side of the downtrend channel (denoted in red). It should be noted that technical indicators are flat. Expected Target Price: QR89.00 – QR91.00 A break above QR87.50 triggers the buy condition on the name. Suggested Stop-loss Price: QR86.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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DHBK
Price % Ch. Volume
Last 49.65 0.10 233,520
Resistance/Support
Levels (QR) 1st
2nd
3rd
Resistance 49.70 50.50 51.60
Support 49.20 48.50 48.00
Commentary
Overview: This recommendation is based on an expectation of a bounce against a short-term downtrend. The bank could be bouncing off a strong support just above QR48.00. The MACD, although below the zero line, is turning north on both the daily and the hourly time frames; the RSI is emulating the aforementioned. Thus, a bounce targeting the edge of the down sloping trend line is possible. Expected Target Price: QR50.50 – QR51.60 A break above QR49.70 triggers the buy condition on the name. Suggested Stop-loss Price: QR49.00
(Daily)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
(Hourly)
Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research
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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels
Ticker Close 3rd
2nd
1st
Pivot 1st
2nd
3rd
50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA
QSE Index 11,410.76 11,013.69 11,130.46 11,202.59 11,319.35 11,436.12 11,508.25 11,625.01 12,114.19 12,435.71 12,854.72
Total Return 17,654.96 17,040.62 17,221.27 17,332.88 17,513.53 17,694.18 17,805.79 17,986.44 18,319.44 18,673.37 19,235.29
All Share 3,047.89 2,953.20 2,980.80 2,997.84 3,025.43 3,053.03 3,070.07 3,097.66 3,160.22 3,204.30 3,280.94
Al Rayan Islamic 4,168.53 3,963.20 4,022.32 4,058.85 4,117.96 4,177.08 4,213.61 4,272.72 4,267.08 4,273.69 4,378.77
Banks & Financials Services
MARK 45.85 43.95 44.52 44.88 45.45 46.02 46.38 46.95 46.71 46.69 50.40
CBQK 56.80 55.40 55.93 56.27 56.80 57.33 57.67 58.20 61.90 62.82 62.82
DHBK 49.65 48.08 48.54 48.82 49.28 49.74 50.02 50.48 55.87 56.52 57.86
QIBK 99.50 95.83 96.98 97.69 98.83 99.98 100.69 101.83 103.89 103.80 105.75
QIIK 76.60 74.40 75.05 75.45 76.10 76.75 77.15 77.80 82.88 82.58 84.28
Insurance
QATI 77.90 77.70 77.81 77.89 78.00 78.11 78.19 78.30 77.40 77.71 78.70
Consumer Goods & Services
MCGS 142.50 132.63 135.46 137.21 140.03 142.86 144.61 147.43 139.16 130.47 121.29
Industrials
IQCD 132.20 125.13 127.20 128.47 130.53 132.60 133.87 135.93 146.91 163.86 173.61
QEWS 186.00 181.53 182.95 183.82 185.23 186.65 187.52 188.93 190.96 189.13 187.75
GISS 87.20 80.53 82.60 83.87 85.93 88.00 89.27 91.33 97.10 100.71 106.44
QIGD 38.40 34.70 35.77 36.43 37.50 38.57 39.23 40.30 40.92 41.95 49.45
Real Estate
BRES 45.40 40.70 42.21 43.14 44.65 46.16 47.09 48.60 47.14 46.13 43.47
UDCD 21.12 20.15 20.47 20.67 20.99 21.31 21.51 21.83 23.81 24.33 25.93
ERES 14.85 13.85 14.14 14.31 14.60 14.89 15.06 15.35 15.67 16.20 18.37
MRDS 17.47 16.84 17.02 17.13 17.31 17.49 17.60 17.78 19.58 20.16 20.82
Telecommunication
ORDS 103.00 94.67 97.15 98.68 101.17 103.65 105.18 107.67 112.60 115.32 123.45
VFQS 17.34 16.85 17.04 17.16 17.34 17.53 17.65 17.83 16.88 17.02 18.64
Transportation
QGTS 22.20 21.55 21.77 21.91 22.13 22.35 22.49 22.71 23.92 23.59 23.70
QNNS 99.70 97.30 97.99 98.41 99.10 99.79 100.21 100.90 102.86 100.46 97.42 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price
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Definitions:
Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening
and the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is
lower than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they
compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.
Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.
Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the
security price to head lower.
SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus
considered a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative
price direction and potential support/resistance levels.
Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in
a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally
use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be
considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.
Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &
shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.
Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These
levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.
Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot
Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.
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Contacts:
Saugata Sarkar QNB Financial Services SPC
Head of Research Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666
Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 PO Box 24025 saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa Doha, Qatar
Sahbi Kasraoui Ahmed Al-Khoudary
Manager – HNWI Head of Sales Trading – Institutional
Tel: (+974) 4476 6544 Tel: (+974) 4476 6548 sahbi.alkasraoui@qnbfs.com.qa ahmed.alkhoudary@qnbfs.com.qa
Disclaimer and Copyright Notice: This publication has been prepared by QNB Financial Services SPC (“QNBFS”) a wholly-owned subsidiary of QNB SAQ (“QNB”). QNBFS is regulated by the Qatar Financial Markets Authority and the Qatar Exchange QNB SAQ is regulated by the Qatar Central Bank. This publication expresses the views and opinions of QNBFS at a given time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed opinions and/or recommendations may be different or contrary to the opinions/recommendations of QNBFS Fundamental Research as a result of depending solely on the historical technical data (price and volume). QNBFS reserves the right to amend the views and opinions expressed in this publication at any time. It may also express viewpoints or make investment decisions that differ significantly from, or even contradict, the views and opinions included in this report. This report may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission from QNBFS.
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