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25 YEARS OF INPUT-OUTPUT
ANALYSIS AT THE OECD:
FROM TECHNOLOGY
SPILLOVERS TO TIVA AND
BEYOND
Andy Wyckoff, Director
Directorate for Science, Technology and Innovation, OECD
25th International Input-output Conference, 20th June 2017
Dedication: Norihisa Sakurai 1957-2015
Nori- pioneer of OECD
IO work,
- IIOA vice-president
- good friend
Three distinct phases:
- 1990s: Structural Change & International technology spillovers
- 2000s: Embodied CO2
- 2010: Trade in Value Added (TiVA) / GVCs
- 2016+
IO for Policy: 3 decades / 3 stages
3
The 1990s
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/08/14/business/dealbook/chinas-renminbi-devaluation-may-initiate-new-phase-in-global-currency-war.html?_r=0
http://www.toyota-global.com/company/history_of_toyota/75years/text/leaping_forward_as_a_global_corporation/chapter1/section1/item1.html
Growth Decomposition for 7 Countries
Technology & Productivity
Investment (GFCF) matrices !
Figure 1.Figure 1. OECD INPUT-OUTPUT SYSTEM
Private
consum
ption
Gov.
consum
ption
GF
CF
Ch
ang
es in S
tocks
Export
s
Gro
ss O
utp
ut
IMPORTS
Compensation of employees
Operating Surplus
Depreciation of Capital
Net indirect taxes
Total Inputs
VA
LU
E
AD
DE
D
IMPORT
INTERMEDIATEMATRIX
DOMESTICINVESTMENT
MATRIX
DOMESTIC
INTERMEDIATE
MATRIX
Investment goods sourced from abroad
IMPORTINVESTMENT
MATRIX
- 10 countries
- 5 benchmark years
- from ≈ 1970 to 1990
- 36 industries
- ISIC Rev.2 (SNA68)
- Current and constant prices
- Investment matrices.
- Data still available on request …
OECD’s first I-O publication - 1995
8
20 years ago on the web
Also available on diskette in the form of 456
Lotus (WK1) files.
Price (book + diskettes):
FF 5000 US$ 910 £ 555 DM 1515
Source = http://replay.waybackmachine.org
- STAN: Output, value added and employment by industry
- BTD: Bilateral trade by industry
- ANBERD: Business R&D expenditure by industry
- STAN-IO: Harmonised national Input-Output tables
The STAN-family of databases emerges
10
2000s
https://guyanachronicle.com/2014/12/01/govt-accepts-doha-amendment-
to-kyoto-protocol-exemplifies-commitment-to-fight-climate-change
• Existing accounting system is based on place of emission - but important and persistent point of contention in identifying “polluter”
• Greenhouse gases emitted by many countries may be embodied in final goods.
• Measuring a nation’s production-based or territorial–based CO2 emissions is not enough.
Consumption-based carbon accounting
Context
Estimating Carbon Embodied in Trade:
https://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy-policy/
1994
6
2003
24
2009 2012
40
60
CO2 emissions: production- and
consumption-based estimates1995-2011
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Gt CO2
OECD Consumption-based OECD Production-based
Non-OECD Consumption-based Non-OECD Production-based
Net imports of embodied CO2 by OECD countries
Net exports of embodied CO2 by non-OECD economies
United States
China
EU28
Germany’s demand for motor vehicles 2011, Origin of value added by country and industry
Industries
Chemicals
Non-metallic
minerals
Basic metals
Motor vehicles
Electricity, gas
and water
supply
(Utilities)
http://oe.cd/io-co2
Germany’s demand for motor vehicles 2011, Origin of CO2 emissions by country and
industry – hotspots
Industries
Chemicals
Non-metallic
minerals
Basic metals
Motor vehicles
Electricity, gas
and water
supply
(Utilities)
CO2 hotspotcountries
http://oe.cd/io-co2
Growing recognition
2009
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_United_Nations_Climate_Change_Co
nference; https://za.ambafrance.org/Paris-2015-COP-21-COP21-videos
20152014
2010s
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/ks3/geography/interdependence/globalisation/revision/2/
Global Value Chains:
a well-established concept
2005 2007 2008
2020
Apple’s iPod Teardown:
GVCs simplified
Distribution of the value added
• 299 US$
– 75$ profit to US (Apple)
– 73$ whls/retail US (Apple)
– 75$ to Japan (Toshiba)
– 60$ 400 parts from Asia
– 15$ 16 parts from the US
– 2$ assembly by China
https://www.ifixit.com/Teardown/iPod+Classic+Teardown/595
“We could do that…”
Trade in services
Trade in goods
ICIOBTDIxE
UN ComtradeOECD ITCS
EBTSI
eBOPSTiS
nationalSUTs/IOTs
SNA by activitySTAN, UNSD, Eurostat,
SNA main aggregatesOECD, UNSD, National
harmonised
SUTs/ IOTs
TiVA
IND34VA/PROD
IND34FD
CO2 Jobs/GVCs
HH Cons - COICOP
TourismSatellite
Non-Res direct
22
OECD-WTO TiVA database and GVC
synthesis for Ministers
23
The genome of world trade - 1995Value added in world exports by source country and source industry, 1995
Thank you
The genome of world trade - 2011Value added in world exports by source country and source industry, 2011
TiVA tells us which sectors are the
most global…Foreign value added embodied in domestic demand, by sector,
OECD average, 2011(as a percentage of total domestic demand)
Source: Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015, forthcoming.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Textil
es &
ap
pare
l
ICT
& e
lectr
onic
s
Co
ke, petr
ole
um
Moto
r vehic
les
Oth
er
tra
nsport
Ele
ctr
ical m
achin
ery
Basic
meta
ls
Oth
er
man
ufa
ctu
ring
Ch
em
ica
ls
Gene
ral m
achin
ery
Ru
bber
& p
lastic
s
Fabricate
d m
eta
ls
Wood
Tra
nspo
rt &
sto
rage
No
n-m
eta
llic m
inera
ls
Min
ing
Food p
rodu
cts
Agriculture
Re
nting o
f m
achin
ery
Pape
r, p
rint, p
ub
lsh
Utilit
ies
Whole
sale
& r
eta
il
Ho
tels
& r
esta
ura
nts
IT s
erv
ice
s
Co
nstr
uction
Oth
er
serv
ices
Post &
te
lecom
s
Fin
ance &
insura
nce
Oth
er
busin
ess…
Public
adm
in
He
alth
Education
Re
al esta
te
% OECD foreign value added Non-OECD foreign value added 1995
… the extent to which consumption
relies on foreign value added ..
Foreign value added in domestic consumption, by source region, 2011As a percentage of total domestic consumption
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015.
…that exports require imports…Foreign value-added content of gross exports (%)
Electrical and optical equipment (30t33)
28
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
VN
M
KHM
SGP
THA
HU
N
CZE
SVK
MEX IR
L
MYS
PRT
PHL
NLD FIN
TWN
CHN
AU
T
KOR
SVN
SWE
GRC PO
L
CHE
BEL
DN
K
ESP
CAN
ZAF
ISR
TUR
FRA
IDN
GBR IT
A
DEU IN
D
JPN
AU
S
BRA
RUS
USA
2008 1995
Thank you
…and services matter…
29
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
IDN
CH
N
CH
L
ME
X
RU
S
NO
R
BR
A
CA
N
ZA
F
KO
R
SV
K
CZ
E
AU
S
JPN
HU
N
PO
L
SV
N
NLD
TU
R
NZ
L
ITA
DE
U
US
A
CH
E
ES
T
FR
A
ISR
AU
T
SW
E
PR
T
FIN
IND
DN
K
BE
L
ES
P
GB
R
ISL
IRL
GR
C
LU
X
Domestic content Foreign content SNA total service export share
Services Value-Added: % of exports, 2009
…even for manufactured goods...
30
Exports of electrical and optical equipment (30t33), 2009
Service value added content, %
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
NLD FIN
SWE
FRA
ITA
IND
DE
U
GR
C
BE
L
NZL
SGP
TU
R
IRL
SVK
CH
E
PO
L
ESP
AU
T
ISR
CZE
KO
R
JPN
LUX
PR
T
ZAF
SVN
NO
R
EST
ME
X
GB
R
ISL
DN
K
CA
N
CH
N
AU
S
HU
N
IDN
RU
S
USA
2009 1995%
…and via TiVA
new trade patterns emerge.
31
0
5
10
15
20
25
CHN USA JPN KOR DEU TWN MEX THA SGP GBR MYS CHE FRA ITA
Gross Exports (EXGR) Domestic Value Added in Foreign Final Demand (FDDVA)%
Shares of world exports in gross and value added terms,
Electrical and optical equipment (30t33)
Jobs in the business sector sustained by
foreign final demand, 1995 and 2008
As a percentage of total business sector employment
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2013.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/888932904469
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
LU
X
ES
T
IRL
SV
K
HU
N
BE
L
SV
N
CZ
E
CH
E
SW
E
AU
T
DN
K
NL
D
NO
R
FIN
DE
U
PO
L
KO
R
ITA
CH
N
PR
T
CA
N
FR
A
GB
R
RU
S
TU
R
ES
P
GR
C
IND
ME
X
IDN
JP
N
AU
S
US
A
BR
A
%
2008 1995
Jobs in the business sector sustained by foreign final demand, by region of demand, 2011
As a percentage of total business sector employment
Source: OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2015.
…by region of demand…
• Report on “Inclusive Global Value Chains for Small and Medium Enterprises and Low-Income Developing Countries”
• G20 Strategy for Global Trade Growth
G20 Dialogue includes GVCs and TiVA
35
January 2013
40 countries18 industries3 years
May 2013
57 countries18 industries5 years
October 2015
61 countries34 industries7 years
December 2016
63 countries34 industries17 years
Underlying ICIO tables:
6.9 million cells per year
2016+
Some particular features of ICIO
– Accounting for firm heterogeneity in manufacturing:
Split tables for China & Mexico (processors, other exporters
and non-exporters)
Moving away from the import proportionality assumption
– Separation of “direct purchases by non-residents”
from cross-border trade:
Enables Tourism policy analysis
– Allocation of domestic trade and transport margins
from manufacturing output to services:
Emphasizes the service content of manufactured exports
It can be dirty work…
37
…but its all worth it.
– High level of interest in TiVA worldwide
– Huge renewed interest in IO as a policy tool
– Expanding IO related academic research
around the world
– Many national stats offices motivated to improve
their national statistical infrastructures to better
account for global perspective
However, challenges meeting all demands
– Too many indicators !!! v. Not enough indicators !!!
Two distinct user communities
Power users:
“Just give me the data…”
IO practitioners: Too many indicators !!!
Intermediate use
ctry 1 x ind 1 […] ctry 71 x ind 34 HH NPISH GOV GFCF INVNTNON-
RESDISC
country 1 x industry 1…..country 1 x industry 34…..…..country n x industry 1…..country n x industry 34…..…..country 71 x industry 1…..country 71 x industry 34
Value added (+ taxes -
subs on intermediate products)VA
Output X
Note : FD = Total final expenditures + discrepancy (i.e. exports
to unspecified partners)
Final DemandOutput
Z FD X
OECD, Inter-Country Input-Output (ICIO) Tables, 2016 edition
Get them here: http://oe.cd/icio
Two distinct user communities
Powerful users: “What’s the bottom-line?
The mainstreaming of IO at the OECD
Analyses of GVCs (OECD Committee for Industry and Entrepreneurship)
Numerous Trade policy papers (OECD Trade Committee)
OECD Country Studies (Economic Policy Committee)
OECD Skills outlook (Education Committee)
Steel and GVCs (OECD Steel Committee)
Shipbuilding (OECD Shipbuilding Committee)
Tourism (OECD Tourism Committee)
Embodied CO2 and material flows (OECD Environment Committee)
Role of SMEs in GVCs (Committee for Statistics and Statistical Policy
Digital economy? (OECD Committee for Digital Economy Policy)
Innovation spillovers? (OECD Committee for Science and Technology )
Non-IO experts: More indicators please
“Simple to understand”, with 3 dimensions: country, partner, industry
http://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?DataSetCode=TIVA2015_C1
code description CN Fig.
EXGR_DVASH Domestic value added share of gross exports 2
EXGR_FVASH Foreign value added share of gross exports 1,3
EXGR_FNLDVASH Domestic value added in exports of final products as a share of total gross exports 2
EXGR_INTDVASH Domestic value added in exports of intermediate products as a share of total gross exports 2
EXGR_INTDVApSH Domestic value added in exports of intermediate products, partner shares 8
EXGRpSH Gross exports, partner shares 7
EXGR_DVApSH DVA in gross exports, partner shares
EXGR_TDVAIND Industry domestic value added contribution to gross exports 3
EXGR_TFVAIND Industry foreign value added contribution to gross exports 3
EXGR_SERV_DVASH Domestic services VA content of gross exports 9
EXGR_SERV_FVASH Foreign services VA content of gross exports 9
IMGRINT_REII Re-exported intermediate imports as % of intermediate imports 4
IMGRpSH Gross imports, partner shares 7
FFD_DVApSH Domestic value added in foreign final demand, partner shares 7
DFD_FVApSH Foreign value added in domestic final demand, partner shares 7
VALUX_FFDDVA Domestic value added embodied in foreign final demand, as share of total value added 5,6
PROD_VASH Value added as a % of production
FD_VASH Value added share of total final demand by source country and industry
CONS_VASH Value added share of total consumption by origin 12
GFCF_VASH Value added share of gross fixed capital formation by origin
The TiVA indicator challenge
To produce “core indicators” with 3 dimensions:
Country, Industry, “Partner”
– means reducing 8 dimensions
• Origin of Value added by country and industry
• Exporter by country and industry
• Importer by country and industry
• Final demand by country and industry
So many variations !
DIY: data cubes with 4 dimensions developed:
• Origin of value added (by country and industry) in
• gross exports, gross imports and final demand
TiVA / ICIO: Next steps – from 2017
• Always demand for more countries (Africa?!) and,
more recent years
• New version being developed based on ISIC Rev.4
(NACE Rev.2) and latest SNA 2008 / BPM6 inputs
• Nowcasting: for more timely information, develop
methods for extrapolating TiVA indicators to provide
figures for more recent years (t-1 rather than t-3).
• Better accounting for firm heterogeneity – beyond
China and Mexico Linking trade, SNA and business
statistics? Fruits of extended SUTs project
45
The OECD working environment
(v. Academia)
• Research agenda and priorities determined by:
• 200+ OECD Committees and their Working Parties.
- Access to leaders (via G20 / G7)
• G20 broadens access to non-members
- Strong links with regional/international orgs
• (UN, WTO, EU, APEC etc)
- Direct working relations with officials in Ministries
- Active engagement with statistical agencies
We stand of the shoulders of many.
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