2018: retail channel blueberry performance...blueberries were the #5 frozen fruit and vegetable...

2018: Retail Channel Blueberry PerformancePrepared for:

March 7, 2019

Contents

Methodology page 3

Reading Key page 4

Executive Summary page 5

Fresh Fruits & Vegetables page 10

Fresh Berries page 19

Frozen Fruits & Vegetables page 36

Frozen Berries page 45

Appendix page 60

Methodology

Data Source: Nielsen U.S. ScanGeographies: Total U.S. x AOCDate(s): Calendar Years

2015: 52-weeks ending 01/02/16 2016: 52-weeks ending 12/31/16 2017: 52-weeks ending 12/30/17 2018: 52-weeks ending 12/29/18

Fresh and Frozen “Fruits and Vegetables” differ from Nielsen definition of Total Produce and Total Frozen department. This way we can make like comparisons across fruit and vegetable categories in both departments.Terms:

CAGR = compound annual growth ratePounds=Volume=EQ: These are terms used interchangably throughout this presentation to reference the weight of an item(s) sold at retail.

How to Read This Presentation*

All retail sales numbers are Total U.S. unless specified otherwise

Purple in charts and graphs signifies All Berries/Total Berries

Green in charts and graphs signifies organic

Blue in charts and graphs signifies blueberries

Red in charts and graphs signifies strawberries

Darker color shades indicate reference to dollars

Lighter color shades indicate a reference to volume

*Some exceptions to this convention exist. Please pay careful attention when reviewing.

Executive Summary: fresh

Key Findings Perspective

Fresh blueberries gained +$139 million in 2018. By contrast the second biggest growth in actual dollars was raspberries at $48 million and strawberries gained nearly $43 million.

Fresh blueberries gained +9.3% in dollars versus the previous year. Fresh blueberries produced the highest year over year percentage dollar growth of any of the top 15 fresh fruit & vegetable categories.

Fresh blueberries have consistently produced dollar gains dating back to 2016.

The CAGR since 2016 is +8.2%. By contrast strawberry CAGR has been +2.3%.

Fresh blueberries have consistently produced volume gains dating back to 2016.

The CAGR since 2016 is +6.5%. By contrast strawberry CAGR has been +1.8%.

Per capita consumption of fresh blueberries increased +4.4% vs. year ago.

Americans consume about 1.1 pounds of blueberries annually (purchased in the retail channel).

Organic sales across all berry segments combined were up +12.6%. Organic sales for all fresh fruits and vegetables were up +8.6%.Fresh berries gained a nearly 45% higher growth rate.

Fresh organic blueberries grew +33.7% in dollars. Fresh conventional blueberries grew +5.7% in 2018.

Fresh blueberries gained nearly +18 million pounds. About +8 million in conventional and +10 million in organic.

Fresh organic blueberries were responsible for more than half of all blueberry volume gains over the previous year.

Fresh organic blueberries gained almost 3 points of blueberry dollar share.

Organic 12.8 share in 2017; rose to 15.7 share in 2018. Fresh organic share gains do not appear to be as a result of cannibalization of conventional sales.

Organic blueberries’ pricing slipped the last two years declining -9.4% in 2018

During that same two-year period organic strawberries’ pricing increased +4.6%.

18 oz., 6oz., and 11oz. ranked #1, #2, #3 in pack sizes selling. The top 3 blueberry pack sizes captured 85.7% of dollars and 83.6% of blueberry volume in 2018.

Executive Summary: frozen

Frozen blueberries produced $231 million in 2018. Blueberries were the #5 frozen fruit and vegetable segment…and the #1 frozen fruit segment.

Frozen blueberries were nearly flat (-0.2%) in dollars. Mixed Fruit made relatively large gains at +9.6%.

Frozen blueberries were up (+5.6%) in volume. Frozen blueberries percentage volume growth was higher than any other berry segment.

Frozen blueberries sold nearly 69 million pounds. They were #3 in volume behind strawberries and mixed fruit.

Executive Summary: frozen

Frozen blueberry per capita consumption is 0.21 lbs. per year through the retail channel.

Per capita consumption of frozen blueberries is about the same as strawberries, and increased +4.7% vs. year ago.

Organic blueberries grew +18.4% or +1.3 million pounds in volume in 2018.

This compared to conventional growth of +4.0% or +2.3 million pounds. Organic blueberries’ 16.0 share in 2017; rose to 17.7 share in 2018.

Conventional and organic prices have trended down since 2016, -6.0% and -6.8% respectively in 2018.

This downward trend is true for strawberries, raspberries and blackberries as well.

FRESH FRUITS & VEGETABLES

Fresh Fruits and Veg Trends

Dollars

+ 2.0%

Volume (EQ)

$59.9 billion in 2018

Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/1811

Fresh Fruits and Trends: organics

+ 8.6%

12 Source: Category Partners analysis powered by Nielsen US Scan, 52-weeks ending 12/29/18

Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 dollars

Chg. vs. 2017 +1.6% -3.2% +2.4% +2.4% -1.0% -3.2% +1.6% +5.3% +3.0% +5.6% -4.2% +9.3% +0.4% +5.9% +0.5%

Blueberries had the highest year over year percentage dollar growth of any of the top fruit and vegetable categories.

Blueberries exhibit relatively consistent year over year growth versus the top dollar generators.

Since 2016, Blueberries have been a top 3 percentage growth category.

Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 dollars

Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 volume

Chg. vs. 2017 -2.4% -3.0% +1.6% -3.6% +1.5% -1.4% -2.1% +1.7% +5.9% +0.2% +0.8% +18.3% -4.5% -9.8% -1.1%

Only strawberries made the top 15 fruit and vegetable categories; blueberries were #26 in volume with 362M pounds sold in 2018.

Fruits & Veg: fresh - top 15 volume

Strawberries are the only berry segment in the top 15 volume generators, coming in at number 10.

Fruits: fresh - top 15 dollars

Chg. vs. 2017 -3.2% -1.0% -3.2% +1.6% +5.3% +5.6% +9.3% +0.4% +5.7% +6.0% -14.2% +6.7% -3.7% -0.2% +3.4%

Blueberries were the #7 top-selling fruit in 2018, with higher percentage growth than raspberries or strawberries.

Fruits: fresh - top 15 volume

Chg. vs. 2017 -2.4% +1.6% -3.6% -2.1% +5.9% +0.2% +18.3% -1.1% +2.8% -7.4% +12.1% +5.2% +0.7% +12.3% 0.0%

Up 5.2%, blueberries had the 5th highest percentage volume growth of any fresh fruit.

FRESH BERRIES

Blueberries percentage dollar growth was double that of the berry category and 50% higher than raspberries.

All Berries: fresh - 2018

Berries Dollars Dollars % Chg Dollar Share Volume Lbs Volume Lbs % Chg Volume Lbs Share

STRAWBERRIES $2,691,229,006 +1.6% 45.8% 1,042,325,166 +0.2% 63.7%

BLUEBERRIES $1,636,405,902 +9.3% 27.9% 361,967,083 +5.2% 22.1%

RASPBERRIES $842,152,266 +6.0% 14.3% 105,907,501 +2.9% 6.5%

BLACKBERRIES $529,103,074 +4.5% 9.0% 88,615,384 +3.1% 5.4%

A/0 BERRIES $122,725,616 +4.9% 2.1% 21,187,635 +14.3% 1.3%

CRANBERRIES $48,588,673 -1.3% 0.8% 17,533,896 -1.8% 1.1%

ALL BERRIES $5,870,204,537 +4.6% 100.0% 1,637,536,665 +1.7% 100.0%

Blueberries generated more than 3 times the growth of strawberries in actual dollars in 2018 versus the previous year.

Blueberries gained +$139 million in 2018.

All Berries: fresh – dollars by year

65% of berry category volume growth was generated by blueberries in 2018.

Year over year strawberries were flat.

All Berries: fresh – volume by year

All Berries: fresh - pricing

Blueberries experienced the highest percentage price increase versus the previous year at +3.9%

Per capita consumption of fresh blueberries increased 4.4% vs. year ago.

All Berries: fresh - per capita consumption

*Per capita figures are calculated using volume sales and U.S. census data, thus only provide a directional measure of consumption

Consumption 2017 2018 % Chg

ALL BERRIES 4.94 lbs. 4.99 lbs. +1.1%

STRAWBERRIES 3.19 lbs. 3.18 lbs. -0.5%

BLUEBERRIES 1.05 lbs. 1.10 lbs. +4.4%

RASPBERRIES 0.32 lbs. 0.32 lbs. +2.3%

BLACKBERRIES 0.26 lbs. 0.27 lbs. +2.4%

A/O BERRIES 0.06 lbs. 0.06 lbs. +12.0%

CRANBERRIES 0.05 lbs. 0.05 lbs. -2.4%

Blueberries: fresh - share

Dollar Sales 2015 2016 2017 2018

BLUEBERRIES $1.29B $1.39B $1.50B $1.64B

TOTAL BERRIES $5.11B $5.47B $5.61B $5.87B

Blueberry contribution to both total berries and total fruits and vegetables has increased steadily

Dollar Sales 2015 2016 2017 2018

BLUEBERRIES $1.29B $1.39B $1.50B $1.64B

TOTAL FRUITS/VEG $56.58B $58.35B $58.73B $59.88B

All Berries: fresh – organic – dollars & volume

Organic berry growth outpaced total organic fruits and vegetables in dollars by nearly 45%, up +12.6%

Change vs. YAGO 2016 2017 2018

CONVENTIONAL +5.0% +0.3% +3.4%

ORGANIC +27.7% +21.9% +12.6%

ORGANIC +30.0% +18.2% +10.4%

All Berries: fresh - volume - organic

Organic blueberries grew nearly +48% in volume in 2018.

Organic blueberries were responsible for more than half of all blueberry volume gains over the previous year.

Blueberries: fresh – organic – dollars & volume

Organic blueberries have had steady growth in recent years with 2018 volume growth at almost 50%.

ORGANIC +37.3% +26.8% +33.7%

ORGANIC +36.9% +30.0% +47.7%

Blueberries: fresh – organic share

Organic blueberries gained almost 3 points of blueberry dollar share.

Organic share gains do not appear to be as a result of cannibalization of conventional sales.

Dollars 2017 2018

CONVENTIONAL $1,305,286,261 $1,379,437,720

ORGANIC $192,130,487 $256,968,182

Volume 2017 2018

CONVENTIONAL 323,216,925 331,159,959

ORGANIC 20,863,324 30,870,124

Blueberries: fresh – pricing by organic

Conventional blueberry prices edged up +3.2% versus last year.

Organic blueberries’ pricing slipped the last two years declining -9.4% in 2018.

Blueberries: fresh - pack size

The top 3 blueberry pack sizes captured 85.7% of dollars and 83.6% of blueberry volume in 2018.

2018 2018

18 oz. and 11 oz. pack sizes generated the greatest actual dollar gains versus the previous year.

Relatively small pack sizes deliver the highest retail dollars per pound

FROZEN FRUITS & VEGETABLES

Frozen Fruits & Veg Trends

Dollars

+ 4.1%

Volume (EQ)

Dollar Share

Conventional Organic

Frozen Fruits & Veg Trends: organics

+ 12.3%

$320 million in 2018

Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 dollars

Blueberries were the top-selling frozen berry in 2018.

Chg. vs. 2017 +3.5% +5.4% +3.9% 0.0% -0.2% -1.8% +9.6% +35.6% -0.2% -2.0% -0.9% -2.6% +2.9% +4.0% -2.4%

Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 dollars

Blueberries rank number 5 in dollars amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.

Strawberries rank number 10 in dollars amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.

Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 volume

Frozen blueberry volume was up nearly 6% vs. 2017.

Chg. vs. 2017 +3.6% +3.3% +2.7% -0.4% -1.5% 0.0% +0.3% +12.0% +5.6% +25.8% -3.5% +2.8% +5.0% -3.5% +2.3%

Fruits & Veg: frozen - top 15 volume

Blueberries rank number 9 in volume amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.

Strawberries rank number 7 in volume amongst all frozen fruits and vegetables categories.

Fruits: frozen - top 15 dollars

Blueberries were the top-selling frozen fruit in dollar sales for 2018, and berries accounted for four of the top 6 categories.

Chg. vs. 2017 -0.2% +9.6% -2.0% -0.9% +2.7% -5.2% +5.8% -2.0% -1.8% -4.8% +13.1% +138.2% -19.1% +26.7% +9.3%

Fruits: frozen - top 15 dollars

While blueberries were #1 in dollars sold in 2018, they were #3 in volume.

Chg. vs. 2017 +0.3% +12.0% +5.6% +2.8% +3.2% +3.8% -1.1% +12.9% +2.5% -3.4% +10.0% -23.4% +4.5% +147.9% -1.1%

FROZEN BERRIES

All Berries: frozen

Berries Dollars Dollars % Chg Dollar Share Volume Lbs Volume Lbs % Chg Volume Lbs Share

BLUEBERRIES $230,582,572 -0.2% 35.1% 68,880,279 +5.6% 33.4%

STRAWBERRIES $195,652,045 -2.0% 29.8% 72,904,902 +0.3% 35.4%

A/O BERRIES $174,039,365 -0.9% 26.5% 50,558,116 +2.8% 247.5%

RASPBERRIES $41,040,992 -5.2% 6.2% 9,240,834 +2.5% 4.5%

BLACKBERRIES $13,400,744 -4.8% 2.0% 3,912,748 -3.4% 1.9%

CRANBERRIES $2,654,342 +9.3% 0.4% 685,459 +4.5% 0.3%

ALL BERRIES $657,370,060 -1.3% 100.0% 206,182,388 +2.7% 100.0%

Frozen blueberries dollar sales were flat versus 2017.

Frozen blueberries percentage volume growth was higher than any other berry.

All Berries: frozen – dollars

Blueberries outperformed the other berry segments (cranberries excluded) in year over year percentage change in 2018.

Blueberries outperformed the other berry segments in year over year percentage and actual growth in 2018.

Blueberries generated +17.9 million additional pounds in 2018.

All Berries: frozen – volume

Per capita consumption of frozen blueberries is about the same as strawberries, and increased +4.7% vs. year ago.

All Berries: frozen – per capita consumption

*Per capita figures are calculated using volume sales and U.S. census data, thus only provide a directional measure of consumption

Consumption 2017 2018 % Chg

ALL BERRIES 0.62 lbs. 0.63 lbs. 2.0%

STRAWBERRIES 0.22 lbs. 0.22 lbs. -0.3%

BLUEBERRIES 0.20 lbs. 0.21 lbs. 4.7%

A/O BERRIES 0.15 lbs. 0.15 lbs. 2.2%

RASPBERRIES 0.03 lbs. 0.03 lbs. 1.8%

BLACKBERRIES 0.01 lbs. 0.01 lbs. -4.2%

CRANBERRIES 0.00 lbs. 0.00 lbs. 3.7%

All Berries: frozen - organic

Conventional dollars decreased slightly, while organics increased +9.0% in dollars.

CONVENTIONAL -0.7% -7.2% -3.2%

ORGANIC +13.5% +0.5% +9.0%

CONVENTIONAL +0.3% -5.0% +1.3%

ORGANIC +20.9% +1.0% +14.3%

All Berries: frozen - volume - organic

Organic blueberries grew +18.4% in volume in 2018.

Blueberries: frozen - organic

Both conventional and organic frozen berries experienced volume growth in 2018.

CONVENTIONAL -0.2% -5.8% -2.2%

ORGANIC +11.8% +3.7% +10.4%

CONVENTIONAL +1.4% -2.0% +4.0%

ORGANIC +19.3% +6.8% +18.4%

Blueberries: frozen – organic share

Organic blueberries dollar growth failed to offset the dollar declines in conventional blueberries.

Volume for conventional and organic blueberries gained ground.

Dollars 2017 2018

CONVENTIONAL $193,948,155 $189,714,422

ORGANIC $37,005,771 $40,868,151

Volume 2017 2018

CONVENTIONAL 58,232,330 60,577,163

ORGANIC 7,014,723 8,303,115

Blueberries: frozen – pack size

The top 3 blueberry pack sizes captured 63.6% of dollars and 64.3% of blueberry volume in 2018.

40 oz., 64 oz. and 8 oz. sizes generated the greatest dollar and volume gains versus the previous year.

Relatively smaller pack sizes like 10oz. And 8 oz. generated the highest price per pound.

All Berries: frozen - pricing

Blueberries pricing has trended down over the last four years. That downward trend is increasing. Volume gains have not offset the pricing declines, leading to fewer dollars to the segment in 2018.

Blueberries: frozen – pricing by organic

Conventional and organic prices have trended down since 2016.

Adam Brohimer402.578.4494

Adam.Brohimer@categorypartners.comcategorypartners.com

APPENDIX

All Berries: fresh – pricing by organic

All Berries: frozen – pricing by organic

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