2017 boma idaho commercial real estate symposium slideshow
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Construction & Development Video
Greeting and President’s Message
Krisjan Hiner
Stack Rock Group : Landscape Architecture
Master of Ceremony
2017 BOMA Idaho President
2016 Symposium Sponsors
#2017bomasymposium
Governor’s Address
Governor Butch Otter
Mayor’s Address
David Bieter
City of Boise
Market Updates
Wes Jost Regional Economic Presentation
Theresa Drake Saving Energy Makes Good Business Sense
Karena Gilbert Office & Industrial Market Updates
Clay Anderson Investment Market Update
LeAnn Hume Retail Market Update
Travis Rothweiler Highlight City: Downtown Boise
Brent Wilson Idaho Falls Market Update
Tommy Ahlquist Commercial Development Stimulates our Economy
Regional Economic Overview
Wes Jost
Commercial Real Estate Group
Percent Change: 2015 to 2016U.S. Rate = 0.7%
Population Loss
0.7% to 1.4% (at or above U.S. rate)
0.2% to 0.6%
1.5% or more
0.0% to 0.1%
NM
0.0%
UT
2.0%
AZ
1.7%
CA
0.7%
NV
2.0%
OR
1.7%
TX
1.6%
OK
0.4%
CO
1.7%
WA
1.8%
ID
1.8%
MT
1.0%
WY
-0.2%
ND
0.1%
SD
0.9%
MN
0.7%
NE
0.7%
KS
0.3%
IA
0.4%
MO
0.3%
AR
0.3%
LA
0.3%
WI
0.2%
IL
-0.3%IN
0.3%
OH
0.1%
FL
1.8%
TN 0.9%
KY 0.3%
MS
0.0%AL
0.2%
GA
1.1%
SC
1.4%
NC 1.1%
VA
0.5%
WV
-0.5%
PA
-0.1%
NY
0.0%
ME
0.2%
AK
0.6%
HI
0.2%
MA
0.4%
VT
-0.2%
NH
0.4%
RI
0.1%CT
-0.2%
NJ
0.1%
DE
0.8%
MD
0.4%
MI
0.1%
DC
1.6%
KS
0.0%
Idaho Population 3rd Fastest Growing in U.S.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Net Migration Natural Increase Total Population
10,296
18,869
1,683,140
Idaho Population and Components of Change
Source: Zions Bank analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data
Tota
l Po
pu
lati
on
Co
mp
on
ents o
f Pop
ulatio
n C
han
ge
Percent Change in Employment for States: December 2015 to December 2016U.S. Rate = 1.5%
Note: Seasonally AdjustedSource: Bureau of Labor Statistics
NM
-0.3%
UT
2.8%
AZ
1.3%
CA
2.0%
NV
3.0%
OR
3.1%
TX
1.8%
OK
-0.3%
CO
1.9%
WA
3.0%
ID
1.9%
MT
0.9%
WY
-2.8%
ND
-1.8%
SD
1.4%
MN
1.5%
NE
0.7%
KS
-0.7%
IA
0.5%
MO
2.3%
AR
0.4%
LA
-0.2%
WI
1.0%
IL
0.5%IN
0.8%
OH
0.8%
FL
3.1%
TN 1.6%
KY0.6%
MS
-1.0%
AL
1.0%
GA
2.4%
SC
1.7%
NC 2.0%
VA
1.3%
WV
1.4%
PA
0.5%
NY
1.2%
ME
0.0%
AK
-1.4%
HI
2.1%
MA
2.1%
VT
0.7%
NH
1.7%
RI
0.7%
CT
-0.1%
NJ
0.3%
DE
0.5%
MD
1.1%
MI
1.7%
DC
2.3%
Loss
1.5% to 1.9% (at or above the U.S. rate)
2.0% or more
1.0% to 1.4%
0.0% to 0.9%
Idaho Employment Growth 12th Highest in the Nation
227,000 Jobs Added in January
-900
-700
-500
-300
-100
100
300
500
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
8.7 Million Jobs Lost
15.2 MillionJobs Recovered
Payr
oll
Ch
ange
00
0’s
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1,000
300
500
1,500
2,800
2,400
400
2,600
1,600
400
0
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Government
Other Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Ed. & Health Serv.
Prof. & Bus. Serv.
Financial Activity
Information
Trade, Trans., Utilities
Manufacturing
Construction
Ntl. Res. & Mining
Total: 13,500
Source: Idaho Department of Labor
Idaho Employment Gains and Losses by Industry
Total Change in Idaho Employment by Industry: December 2015 – December 2016
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
7.0
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Year
U.S. Idaho
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Idaho Job Growth Higher than Nation for Past Two Years
400
500
600
700
800
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
Tho
usa
nd
s o
f Em
plo
yee
s
Total Nonfarm Employment
Loss of 59,000 jobs from
2007 - 2010
Gain of 102,000 jobs since low
in 2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Total nonfarm seasonally adjustedNote: Numbers rounded to nearest thousand
Idaho Total Employment at New Highs
Unemployed and Discouraged Workers Showing Little Change
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
U-6 (Underemployed) U-3 (Unemployment)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2015 U.S. = $56,516; 2015 Idaho = $51,624
NM
$45,119
UT
$66,258
AZ
$52,248
CA
$63,636
NV
$52,008
OR
$60,834
TX
$56,473
OK
$47,077
CO
$66,596
WA
$67,243
ID
$51,624
MT
$51,395
WY
$60,925
ND
$57,415
SD
$55,065
MN
$68,730
NE
$60,474
KS
$54,865
IA
$60,855
MO
$59,196
AR
$42,798
LA
$45,922
WI
$55,425
IL
$60,413IN
$51,983
OH
$53,301
FL
$48,825
TN
$47,330
KY$42,387
MS
$40,037AL
$44,509
GA
$50,768
SC
$46,360
NC
$50,797
VA
$61,486
WV
$42,824
PA
60,389
NY
$58,005
AK
$75,112
HI
$64,514
MA
$67,861VT
$59,494
NH
$75,675
RI
$55,701CT
$72,889
NJ
$68,357DE
$57,756
MD
$73,594
MI
$54,203
DC
$70,071
$56,516 to $64,999 (At or above U.S.)
$50,000 to $56,515
$65,000 or more
$45,000 to $49,999
$44,999 or less
ME
$50,756
Idaho Median Household IncomeBelow National Average
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
National Economic Headwinds(Pre-Presidential Election)
• National and international uncertainty
• Discouraged workers continue to hold back
• Questionable energy prices
• Depressed business investment
• Unstable inflation outlook
• Consumer spending and consumer confidence remain low
National Economic Tailwinds(Post-Presidential Election)
• Consumer and business confidence rebounding
• Higher expectations of economic growth and inflation
• Idaho job growth among the best in the country
• Unemployment low and dropping
• Construction activity on the rise
• Agriculture supports a strong state economy
Sources: Idaho Division of Financial Management and Moody’s Economy.com e = estimate f = forecast
3.4
4.9
3.9
1.9
1.4
12
4.4
3.8
1.8
1.5
23.8
3
3.8
3.1
1.4
0 5 10 15 20 25
Housing Starts
Personal Income
Unemployment Rate
Nonfarm Employment
Population
2016 2017f 2018f
Idaho Economic Indicators2016-2018
Wes Jost
Regional Director
Email: Wes.Jost@zionsbank.com
Phone: 208-501-7491
Zions Bank, A Division of ZB, N.A. Member FDIC.
Content is offered for informational purposes only and should not be construed as tax, legal, financial or business advice. Please contact a professional about your specific needs and advice. Content may contain trademarks or trade names owned by parties who are not affiliated
with ZB, N.A. Use of such marks does not imply any sponsorship by or affiliation with third parties, and ZB, N.A. does not claim any ownership of or make representations about products and services offered under or associated with such marks.
Saving Energy Makes Good Business Sense
Theresa DrakePlatinum Sponsor
Saving Energy Makes Good Business Sense
Theresa Drake Customer Relations & Energy Efficiency Manager
Wise Energy Use
• Helps provide reliable, responsible fair-priced energy
• Defers or delays need to build new generation sources
Saving Energy Makes Good Business Sense
• Reduced operations and maintenance costs
• Increased asset value
• Enhanced employee productivity
• Good return on investment
• Improved customer comfort
• Enhanced public image
Commercial & Industrial Energy Efficiency Program
• Energy-Saving Retrofits
• New Construction
• Custom Projects
• Technical Training
• Energy Audits
• And more!
Idahopower.com/business
Office & Industrial UpdatePresented by Karena Gilbert
Sales | Leasing | Property Management
THE 10
HOTTEST TRAVEL DESTINATIONS
OF 2017
OFFICE MARKET: MAJOR PROJECTS
DOWNTOWN BOISE
CITY CENTER PLAZA - 248,000 SF
SIMPLOT HEADQUARTERS - 364,000 SF
PIONEER CROSSING - 120,000 SF (COMING SOON)
TEN MILE INTERCHANGE - MERIDIAN
$19.50
$16.95
14.63%
9.84%
WHO’S MOVING?
· NEW TO MARKET – 14 companies totaling 51,000 SF
· MOVING WITHIN THE MARKET – 67 companies totaling 444,000 SF
· EXPANSION – 45 businesses totaling 376,000 SF.
· LOCAL STARTUPS
OFFICE MARKET:
CURRENT TRENDS
· OPEN FLOOR PLAN
· WORK STATIONS
· BREAK AREAS
· COLLABORATION
· REDUCED SF PER PERSON
OFFICE MARKET:
CONVERSATIONS
· CONSTRUCTION COSTS
· LONGER LEASE TERMS
· EMPLOYEE RETENTION
· PARKING
INDUSTRIAL MARKET
1,164,000 SF - UP FROM 665,000 SF IN 2015
INDUSTRIAL MARKET:
NOTABLE TRASACTIONS
· GAYLE MANUFACTURING – 166,200 SF CALDWELL
· SCENTSY – 177,700 SF MERIDIAN
· FORAGE GENETICS – 101,800 SF NAMPA
· PATRICK INDUSTRIES – 117,500 BOISE
Sales | Leasing | Property Management
0
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/1/2
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US Office Volume ($) US Industrial Volume ($) US Retail Volume ($) US Apartment Volume ($)
0
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/1/2
01
0
3/1
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6/1
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/1/2
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1
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/1/2
01
5
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16
6/1
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16
9/1
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12
/1/2
01
6
US Office Volume ($) US Industrial Volume ($) US Retail Volume ($) US Apartment Volume ($)
National Sales Volume
300 B
200 B
500 B
100 B
400 B
600 B
Volume displayed as 12 Month Totals. Includes property or portfolio sales $2.5 million or greater.
0
2E+10
4E+10
6E+10
8E+10
1E+11
1.2E+11
1.4E+11
3/1
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/1/2
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13
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/1/2
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14
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/1/2
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15
11
/1/2
01
5
3/1
/20
16
7/1
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/1/2
01
6
RCA - West Office Volume ($)
0
2E+10
4E+10
6E+10
8E+10
1E+11
1.2E+11
1.4E+11
3/1
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0
3/1
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7/1
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3/1
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/1/2
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11
/1/2
01
5
3/1
/20
16
7/1
/20
16
11
/1/2
01
6
RCA - West Office Volume ($)
RCA - West Industrial Volume ($)
RCA - West Retail Volume ($)
RCA - West Apartment Volume ($)
Regional Sales Volume
Volume displayed as 12 Month Totals. Includes property or portfolio sales $2.5 million or greater.
80 B
120 B
60 B
100 B
40 B
140 B
20 B
National Cap Rates
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
2001 2004 2006 2009 2012 2014 2017 2020
US Office Cap Rate
US Industrial Cap Rate
US Retail Cap Rate
US Apartment Cap Rate
Regional Cap Rates
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
9.00%
10.00%
2001 2004 2006 2009 2012 2014 2017 2020
RCA - West Office Cap Rate
RCA - West Industrial Cap Rate
RCA - West Retail Cap Rate
RCA - West Apartment Cap Rate
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
CMBS Issuance
mill
ion
s
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Treasury Rates – 20 Yr History%
1.50
1.70
1.90
2.10
2.30
2.50
2.70
10-17 10-24 10-31 11-07 11-14 11-21 11-28 12-05 12-12 12-19 12-26 01-02 01-09 01-16 01-23 01-30 02-06
10 Yr Treasury-Q4 2016
2016 Election
2006 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2017 Adj.
Cap Rate 7.00% 6.25% 6.25% 6.50%
Price $757,143 $848,000 $848,000 $815,500
Cash Down $227,143 $254,400 $254,400 $244,650
10 Yr Treasury Rate 4.60% 1.80% 2.50% 2.50%
Loan Rate 6.60% 4.00% 4.50% 4.50%
PMT ($41,008) ($34,328) ($36,442) ($35,045)
Cash Flow $11,992.34 $18,672.05 $16,557.98 $17,954.64
Cash on Cash 5.28% 7.34% 6.51% 7.34%
% Change in Return -11.32%
% Change in Price -3.83%
Change in Cap Rate 0.25%
Lease Term 10 yr NNN
NOI $53,000
LTV 70%
Amortization 30
Effect of Rates on ReturnTaco Time – Ontario, Ore
2006 2016
Cap Rate 7.00% 6.25%
Price $757,143 $848,000
Effect of Rates on ReturnTaco Time – Ontario, Ore
2016 Q1 2017
Cap Rate 6.25% 6.25%
Price $848,000 $848,000
Cash Down $254,400 $254,400
10 Yr Treasury Rate 1.80% 2.50%
Loan Rate 4.00% 4.50%
PMT ($34,328) ($36,442)
Cash Flow $18,672 $16,558
Cash on Cash 7.34% 6.51%
% Change in Return -11.32%
% Change in Price
Change in Cap Rate
Q1 2017 Q1 2017 Adj.
Cap Rate 6.25% 6.5%
Price $848,000 $815,500
Cash on Cash 7.34% 7.34%
Effect of Rates on ReturnTaco Time – Ontario, Ore
Deal Size Buyer Seller Price Change Cap Rate Change
$10-12m Market Market 3.50% -0.25%
$16-18m Market Market 4.50% -0.30%
$25-28m Market Market 2.94% -0.20%
$54-56m 1031 Market 1% -0.10%
$20-24m 1031 Off-Market 0% 0%
$22-24m 1031 Off-Market NO DEAL
$150-170m
3.65% -0.25%
Apartment Negotiation in Q4 2016
Price/Cap Effect - 10 year treasury movement from 1.8% to 2.5%
What to Watch For with New Political Platform
Economic Platform Potential Effect Opportunities
› Stimulus (tax cut, infrastructure)
› Immigration
› (+) Economic gains (-) higher interest rates (-) inflation
› (-) labor costs increase (-) labor shortage (-) slower GDP growth
Real Estate as Inflation Hedge
› Value-add Opportunities (Good story behind NOI growth)
› Safe yield transactions (NNN, Long-term)
RETAILLeAnn Hume, CCIM, CLS
Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
Dollar Stores Sector1 new store every 4.5 hours over last 5 years
Restaurant SectorSince 2010 – 50% of retail growth has been in this sectorPrior to 2010 it was about 1/3 of retail growth
Discounters – Dollar Tree
Food: Grocery, Fast Food, QSR – Quick Service Restaurants
Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
Right Sizing
Relocation
Acquisition
Underperformance
Beat out by competition
E-Commerce Competition
Cushman & Wakefield | Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
$440 Billion e-commerce
Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
2017
Retail Transactions
$4 Trillion
Amazon added 35 million sq. ft of eCommerce fulfillment space over last 6 years
Amazon can now deliver NEXT DAY to over 90% of the continental US
Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
Baby Boomers 1946-1964 74 Million $1.36 Trillion
Generation Born Between Population Buying Power
Generation X 1965-1980 66 Million $125 Billion
Generation Y - Millennials 1981-1996 90 Million $200 Billion
Generation Z 1997-2003 60 Million $44 Billion
By 2020, those Born between 1997-2020 will equal 2.6 Billion people
Who do retailers need to market to?
Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
Who will save brick and mortar retailers?
• 67% of Generation Z shop Brick & Mortar
• Retailers who are succeeding, offer BOTH
• 70% of Holiday Sales occurred with retailers who offered BOTH online and brick and mortar
• 9/100 Returns – 70-80% of In Store Returns lead to an additional purchase
• 25% of Holiday Sales were done by Amazon
Active Retailers
Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
Cushman & Wakefield Pacific Commercial Realty Advisors
Video Highlight: City of Twin Falls
Travis Rothweiler
C I T Y O F T W I N FA L L S
c re at i n g s u sta i n e d exc e l l e n c e
O U R PA S T
O U R J O U R N E Y
We created a strategic plan…
We created data driven solutions…We created community partnerships…We broke down barriers…
©Copyright 2014 City of Fort Collins. All Rights Reserved. 95
WE CHALLENGED
THE STATUS QUO…
• W E G OT
25%$167 Million 3.1%$1 Billion130%
Hamdi Ulukaya, Founder, President and CEO of Chobani“Building the largest yogurt manufacturing plant in the world and expanding it three years later is a really proud moment for us and an example of how right it was to pick Twin Falls, Idaho as our second home.”
Kevin Cleary, CEO of Clif Bar & Company“When we started working with the city, we immediately recognized a shared set of values that served as a foundation for this partnership. We look forward to building on this partnership and to bringing our Five Aspirations business model to Twin Falls.”
What our Partners say…
Eastern Idaho UpdatePresented by Brent Wilson
Thornton Oliver Keller
Sales | Leasing | Property Management
Idaho Falls/Pocatello MSA Population: 389,800
Unemployment Rate: 3.2%
Top Employers:
Battelle Energy Alliance (3,800)
CH2M-WG Idaho LLC (1,700)
Eastern Idaho Regional Medical Center (1,300)
Melaleuca (1,300)
Basic American Foods (1,000)
Demographic overview
Research:
Idaho National Laboratory
Battelle Energy Alliance
Colleges & Universities:
BYU-Idaho
Eastern Idaho Technical College
Idaho State University
Research & Education
Small Modular Reactor
Project –
$2.8 Billion
U.S. Naval Reactors
Facility / Spent Nuclear
Fuels Project –
$1.65 Billion
Idaho National LaboratoryProjects in the Pipeline
Office Market: 3,900,000 square feetMulti-Tenant Vacancy: 13.3%
Oppenheimer Development Corporation’s
New Downtown Idaho Falls Project
INL’s Idaho Falls Willow Creek Campus
Two New Cyber-Security Buildings
Planned
$85 Million Project Value
Retail Market: 4,700,000 square feetTotal Vacancy: 6.6%
Retail Market: 4,700,000 square feetTotal Vacancy: 6.6%
Sandcreek Commons – 300,000 s.f.
Ball Ventures / Woodbury Corp.
Ammon, ID
Industrial Market: 4,900,000 square feetMulti-Tenant Vacancy: 8.7%
Industrial Market: 4,900,000 square feetMultitenant Vacancy: 8.7%
New Warner Truck Centers Facility
I-15 Exit 113, Bonneville County
Sales | Leasing | Property Management
Commercial Development Stimulates Our Economy
Tommy Ahlquist
Keynote Speaker
Mr. Chris Lee“The Future Has Arrived”
• • •
“A Time of Challenges, Opportunities and Surprises”
• • •
“Where we are in the Real Estate Cycle…When will this Cycle End?
Greeting and President’s Message
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