2017-06-sa-cas-webinar-estimation-and-story-points-01 · tech debt release planning roadmap retros...

Collaboration at Scale: Estimation and Story Points14-June-2017

Collaboration at Scale

Designed for Scrum-centric organizations with more than 10 Scrum teams, the Collaboration at Scale webinar series provides focused, outcome-driven solutions to collaboration problems faced by Product Owners, ScrumMasters, and Development Teams.

Produced by the Scrum Alliance and Conteneo, Inc., we’re proud of the many distinguished experts who share their wisdom in our series.

Luke Hohmann

2Bernie Maloney

2-4 WEEK SPRINT

DAILY SCRUM MEETING

(EVERY 24 HOURS)

POTENTIALLY SHIPABLE PRODUCT INCREMENT

SPRINT BACKLOGPRODUCT BACKLOG

3

Common Scrum Challenges

Tech Debt

Release Planning

Roadmap

Retros

Liftoffs

Refining

Value-Based

Backlogs

Priorities

Depend-encies

Done, Done

CI/CD

TODAY:Estimation and Story

Points

July 2017: Building Alignment and

Empathy

How are you estimating work for a Release?

• We estimate using Story Points• We estimate the number of Sprints• We estimate using T-shirt sizes• We don’t estimate

4

POLL QUESTION

Agenda

1 Why estimate?2 What are we estimating?3 Estimation is hard!4 Techniques for distributed teams5 What to do with estimates

5

Why Estimate?Mostly… What am I going to get and when am I going to get it?

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We improve velocity as we compare estimates to actuals and adjust via retrospectives

Estimates of effort help determine cost and time helping business plan releases

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16

22

26

24

28

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

It. 1 It. 2 It. 3 It. 4 It. 5 It. 6 It. 7 It. 8

Planned Velocity Actual Velocity

Estimates of value and effort help determine order, increasing total delivered value

Sprint Sprint Sprint Sprint Sprint

What Are We Estimating?More… and less… than you think...

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Essential PBI Attributes

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https://www.scrumalliance.org/why-scrum/scrum-guide

Name is optional 5 HAs a WeaverI can download images from forumsSo I can easily use results in reports.

Description

1

Order

2Change Credit Algorithm 3 MWe consider an online forum valid and we'll grant Facilitation Credits when the online forum has 2 or more players, >=15 minutes in length duration and has at least 20 forum events.

Effort

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Value

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Order = function_of(Value, Effort, other attributes)

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Business Value

Effort / Cost

Impact Effort Matrixhttp://bit.ly/2sTMxMW

How Confident Are You in Your Estimates?

• Extremely Confident – We estimate well!• Somewhat Confident• Moderately Confident• Not Confident – We might as well be guessing• What’s an estimate? ;-)

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POLL QUESTION

Estimation is Hard!There are a lot of reasons estimation is challenging

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Value / Effort Are Multidimensional

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Effort

Value

RISK: Are we building on stable components?COMPLEXITY: Is it a “hairy ball of wax” or just “moving dirt”?SKILL: Have we done this before or is it new?EXPERIENCE: Do we know this code? This domain?DESIRE: Does the team want to do this?…

WHO: Who is asking for this? MUST-DO: Is this a security or regulatory requirement?REVENUE: If revenue is involved is it direct or indirect?COMPETITION: Are we addressing a threat or leading the pack?DESIRE: Does the team want to do this?…

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Customers want “big chunks” of value!

Agile teams want “small items that fit a Sprint”.

Bigger Items

Smaller Items

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Asa <user/role/persona>Iwantto <goal>sothat <benefit/reason>

We estimate stories too quickly…When we should do more homework!

Story Maps Lo-Fi/Mid-Fi

Estimation Techniques Often Assume Co-located Teams

16Effort

We’re Often Better at Estimating Effort Because We Track it More Than Value

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Estimate Value

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0

5

10

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25

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It. 1 It. 2 It. 3 It. 4 It. 5 It. 6 It. 7 It. 8

Planned Velocity Actual Velocity

0

50

100

150

200

250

Start It. 1 It. 2 It. 3 It. 4 It. 5 It. 6 It. 7 It. 8

Completed Points Remaining Points Plan Total Points

Velocity=PointsAcceptedEachSprint

BurnUpChart:CumulativePointsAcceptedEachRelease

Estimating Techniques for Value

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Frameworks for Determining Value

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Product OwnerBuy a Feature

http://bit.ly/2rnRNHP

20/20 Visionhttp://bit.ly/2raW9ml

Cover Storyhttp://bit.ly/2sUHL2u

Other Sources of Value

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Product Owner

This is what I think we

need to do…

Trends Product UseAnalytics

Customer Feedback

Estimating Techniques for EffortLearn to embrace multiple techniques – because you’ll need them!

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Common Agile Techniques

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Daily

Sprint

Strategy

Portfolio

Product

Release

1 3

2 5

8

13

21

50

Story Points

Task Hours

T-Shirts

Sprint

Sprints

1/2

Sprint Sprint

Sprint Sprintc Sprint

1 32 5

Affinity Grouping

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Small, Senior Teams Estimate Portfolio Items

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DevOpsCustomer Experience

Product Owner

Architect

Items move around as participants negotiate requirements.

These aren’t commitments –just data that helps in planning!

Normal

Looks Fun!

High Risk

1 32 5

Release Estimation with Affinity Groups

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This is Bernie’s preferred approach.

PO introduces sets of PBIs - usually all of the PBIs chosen for the release.

The team sorts them into “affinity groups” (buckets) of similar effort. Most teams use the “x-axis” for effort and the y-axis for groups like “high risk” or “related to a similar product area”.

Release Estimation in Sprints

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Impact Effort Matrixhttp://bit.ly/2sTMxMW

½ 1 2 3

This is the approach we use at Conteneo J.

Release Estimation Using Planning Poker

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• PO introduces backlog item.

• Team discusses item, asking questions of the Product Owner to clarify intent.

• Each person selects a “poker” card.

• The person with the highest and lowest cards explain why.

• Keep estimating until consensus is reached.

Continue until all of the PBIs for the release have been sized.

1 3

2 5

8

13

21

50

Sprint Task Estimation in Hours

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2-4 WEEK SPRINT

DAILY SCRUM MEETING

(EVERY 24 HOURS)

POTENTIALLY SHIPABLE PRODUCT INCREMENT

SPRINT BACKLOGPRODUCT BACKLOG

Dev teams estimate the number of hours it will take to complete each taskassociated with a Sprint Backlog Item.

This enables the team to provide the business with clear progress towards Sprint goals – the “burn down” chart.

What To Do With Estimates

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Portfolio Estimates Feed Backlogs and Roadmaps

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market driven road maps

FeatureUser story

nnn

Bug FixUser Story

nnn

Backlog

Estimation Database

Team Estimates Help Plan Releases

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Estimation Database0

50

100

150

200

250

Start It. 1 It. 2 It. 3 It. 4 It. 5 It. 6 It. 7 It. 8

Completed Points Remaining Points Plan Total Points

BurnUpChart:CumulativeItemsorPointsAcceptedEachRelease

Sprint Sprint Sprint Sprint SprintReduce Risk Have Fun Normal Work…

Velocity is also needed – See:

Summary

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Some Summary

Estimation is hard – but the alternative is worse!

Scrum motivates us to think in terms of Value and Effort.

Scrum teams often need to focus more on Value!

Estimation of a collaborative sport!

Estimates + Actual + Retrospective = Improvement

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What do you want for the Aug 2017 webinar?

• Impact Mapping • Distributed Team Liftoffs / Kickoffs• Managing Technical Architectures• Buyer and User Personas• Facilitating Online Meetings• Understanding Problem Types and Problem Solving Strategies• How To Implement Lean Coffee at Scale• Analyzing Retrospective Data at Scale• My desired topic isn’t listed – email luke.hohmann@conteneo.co

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POLL QUESTION

Discussions

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Thank you for attending.

Our next webinar is 12-July-2017 on Building Alignment and Empathy.

Luke Hohmannconteneo.co Bernie Maloney