2014.8.18 what to watch

Charts to WatchGlobal Market Update

August 18, 2014

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

Financial Conditions

5

Developed Markets – Year to Date

6

Emerging Markets – Year to Date

7

The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

8

VIX Index – Long Term Perspective

9

Global Financial Stress Index (Higher Level = Higher Stress)

10

S&P 500 – This Week

11

10 Year UST Yields – This Week

12

Gold Price – This Week

13

S&P 500 Sectors – This Week

Fixed Income & Credit

15

US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

16

UST Curve vs. US Investment Grade Curve

17

U.S. Treasury 2 Year Yield

18

U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

19

U.S. Treasury 30 Year Yield

20

Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

21

Investment Grade Bond Prices

22

Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

23

High Yield Bond Prices

24

High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

25

Emerging Market Debt (USD Denominated)

26

Emerging Market Bond Spreads

Global Equities

28

S&P 500 Earnings – Q2 2014

29

MSCI All Country World Index

30

S&P 500 Index

31

MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

32

MSCI Emerging Markets Index

33

SPX vs. EAFE vs. EM (YTD)

34

Trend Analysis by Sector (S&P500)

35

Sector Performance by Region (YTD)

The Economy

37

Last week’s Economic Calendar

38

Next week’s Economic Calendar

39

U.S. Economic Watch – Leading Economic Indicators

40

U.S. Economic Watch – Leading Economic Indicators

41

U.S. Economic Watch – Housing Market

42

U.S. Economic Watch – Housing Market

43

NFIB Small Business Actual Capital Expenditures

44

Business 6 Month Outlook for CAPEX

Currencies & Commodities

46

World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

47

World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2014)

48

Euro €

49

Japanese Yen ¥

50

Global Commodity Prices

51

Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

52

Gold Prices – 5 Years

53

Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years