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2014
GENEVA
MOTOR
SHOW
OICA PRESS
CONFERENCE
Patrick BLAIN – President
March 5, 2014
March 5, 2014 1
I. Production (2013/2012/2009)
II. New vehicles sales (2013/2005)
III. Sales forecasts 2014
IV. Vehicles in use (2012/2005)
V. Motorization rate (2012/2005)
VI. Fatalities are decreasing worldwide
VII. Statement : how can public policies attract
investment in the auto sector
OICA statistics
All data are “all vehicles”: PC, LCV, HCV, BUS
2 March 5, 2014
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2 011 2 012 2 013
Million
3
I. Production: Evolution by region 2013
March 5, 2014
87.2 2013/2012: +3.6%, +3 million
+8%
+9%
+4%
0%
-1%
-2%
+9%
JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA
RUSSIA/TURKEY/OTHER EUROPE
EU 27/EFTA
NAFTA
SOUTH/CENTRAL AMERICA
ASIA/OCEANIA/MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA
28% 25%19%
24%
14%19%
22%
19%16%
17%
33%36%
4% 6% 5%
4% 3% 4%1% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2 009 2013
AFRICA
RUSSIA/TURKEY/OTHER EUROPE
SOUTH/CENTRAL AMERICA
ASIA/OCEANIA/MIDDLE EAST
JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA
NAFTA
EU 27
4
I. Production: share by region 2013/2009/2005
March 5, 2014
4 years 4 years
+16 pts
+3 pts
-3 pts
-3 pts
-10 pts
+5 pts
-3 pts -6 pts
+2 pts -1 pt
+1 pt -1 pt
0
5
10
15
20
25 Million
0
5
10
15
20
25
I. Vehicles production: top 15 countries
1,4% 1,8%
2,2%
2,5% 2,5%
2,7%
3% 3,5%
4,3% 4,4%
5,1%
6,5%
11%
12,6%
25,2%
2005
17,7% 16%
8,5% 8,5%
5,5% 5,3% 4,1%
4%
3,7% 2,7%
2,5%
2,4%
2% 1,7% 1,5%
2013
March 5, 2014 5
Top 15 = 89% of
global production
Top 15 = 86%
of global
production
Top 5: 60%
Top 10: 78%
Top 5: 56%
Top 10: 76% Of global production
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
6
II. New vehicles’ sales*: growth by region
March 5, 2014
2013/2012: +3.9%, +3.2 million 85.4
+7%
+7%
+3%
+2%
0%
-2%
-4%
* Not including police, military and administration vehicles
AFRICA
ASIA/OCEANIA/MIDDLE EAST
SOUTH/CENTRAL AMERICA
NAFTA
EU 27/EFTA
RUSSIA/TURKEY/OTHER EUROPE
JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA
27% 25% 16%
31%
20%
22%
11%
9%
8%
20%
34% 39%
5% 7% 7%
4% 4% 5% 2% 2% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2009 2013
AFRICA
RUSSIA/TURKEY/OTHER EUROPE
CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA
ASIA (exc. Japan&SK) OCEANIA MIDDLE EAST JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA
NAFTA
EU 27/EFTA
7
II. New vehicles’ sales* share by region 2013/2009/2005
March 5, 2014
4 years 4 years
+14 pts +5 pts
-2 pts
-1 pt -11 pts
+2 pts
-2 pts -9 pts
+2 pts +1 pt
* Not including police, military and administration vehicles
25,7%
18,6%
6,3%
4,4% 3,8%
3,8%
3,5% 3% 2,6% 2,1%
1,8%
1,7%
1,6%
1,4%
1,3%
0
5
10
15
20
25
8
II. New vehicles’ sales*: Top 15 countries – 2013/2005
March 5, 2014
2013
26,4%
8,9% 8,7%
5,5%
4,3% 3,9%
3,8% 3% 2,7% 2,6%
2,5% 2,2%
1,8% 1,8%
1,5%
0
5
10
15
20
25 Million
2005 Top 15 = 80% of
global sales
Top 5: 59%
Top 10: 74%
Top 5: 54%
Top 10: 70%
Of global sales
Top 15 = 82% of
global sales
* Not including police, military and administration vehicles
9
III. 2014 sales forecasts
594
693
551
567
342
418
Total +2%
around 88 M vehicles
USA +5%
Brazil +1%
South Africa 0% Australia +5%
Russia -5%
Germany +2%
March 5, 2014
Japan
-10%
UK* +1%
France 0%
Italy** +1%
UE 28 +3%
China +8%
to +10%
Others +4%
* only LV ; **only PC
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Million
JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA
IV. Vehicles in use: growth by region
March 5, 2014 10
2012/2011: +4.1%, +45 million 1.144 Bn
+1%
+1%
+1%
+4% +6%
+7%
+11%
EU 27/EFTA
RUSSIA/TURKEY/OTHER EUROPE
NAFTA
SOUTH/CENTRAL AMERICA
ASIA/OCEANIA/MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA
IV. Vehicles in use: region shares
March 5, 2014 11
30% 28% 25%
31% 29%
27%
10%
9%
8%
14% 18%
22%
6% 6% 7%
6% 7% 7%
3% 3% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005 2009 2012
AFRICA
RUSSIA/TURKEY/OTHER EUROPE
CENTRAL/SOUTH AMERICA
ASIA (exc. Japan&SK) OCEANIA MIDDLE EAST
JAPAN/SOUTH KOREA
NAFTA
EU 27/EFTA
4 years 3 years
+1 pt
+4 pts
+4 pts
-1 pt -1 pt
-2 pts -2 pts
-2 pts -3 pts
+1 pt
12
V. Motorization rate 2005
594
693
551
525
567
342
418
Average rate: 144 veh./1,000 inh.
797
586
195
124
181 142
86 44 64 24
9
40
663
117
146
217
124
143
NAFTA: 631
C&S
America: 110
AFRICA: 34 Asia (exc J&SK)/
Oceania/Middle
east: 35
J&SK: 523
RU/TK/Other Europe: 178 EU 27/EFTA: 531
March 5, 2014
13
V. Motorization rate 2012
594
693
551
525
567
342
418
Average rate: 170 veh./1,000 inh.
791
624
276
187
279 175
111 60 84 79
18
73
713
279
191
317
173
191
NAFTA: 647
C&S
America: 160
AFRICA: 42 Asia (exc J&SK)/
Oceania/Middle
east: 67
J&SK: 539
RU/TK/Other Europe: 254 EU 27/EFTA: 563
March 5, 2014
+3%
+46%
+6%
+25%
+90%
+3%
+43%
+18%
Versus
2005
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
NAFTA EU 27/ EFTA
JAPAN/SK RUSSIA/ TURKEY/
OTHER EUROPE
CENTRAL/ SOUTH
AMERICA
ASIA (exc. Japan&SK) OCEANIA
MIDDLE EAST
AFRICA
2005 2012
14
V. Motorization rate by region 2012/2005
March 5, 2014
MORE THAN 500 v/1,000inh.
MORE THAN 160 v/1,000 inh.
MORE THAN 60 v/1,000inh.
500
15 March 5, 2014
VI. Fatalities are decreasing worldwide
0
5
10
15 Emerging markets
Sources: IRTAD, UNECE – Fatalities rates per 10,000 vehicles
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5 Mature markets
•OICA members elaborated for the first time a statement to present their vision of the role of
public policies in attracting investment in the automotive sector.
• Manufacturing motor vehicles is vital to a strong economy, since around the world, prosperity is
so linked to mobility.
•The vehicle manufacturing industry is strategically important and helps drive national
economies, whether in terms of investment, employment, R&D and linkages to other industrial
sectors. .
• Public policies can contribute to the success of the auto industry in such fields as :
1. Market potential development
2. Legal stability and predictability
3. Skilled workforce and competitive labor costs
4. Suppliers base development
5. Logistics
•More details :
http://www.oica.net/wp-content/uploads//Press-release_Conclusion-Round-Table-
Dubrovnik.pdf
16 6 March, 2013
VII. How can public policies attract
investment in the automotive sector ?
Thank you for your attention
This presentation on line: www.oica.net
17
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