2013 industry panel: job growth... fact or fiction? thanks to sponsor alex hayden ’95 ceo, cushman...
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2013 Industry Panel: Job Growth... fact or fiction?
Thanks to sponsor Alex Hayden ’95CEO, Cushman and Wakefield and
Chair of Career and Industry Partnerships, Chapman50
A. GARY ANDERSON CENTER FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCHARGYROS SCHOOL OF BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS
Presented by
Esmael Adibi, Ph.D.
NBER Recession & Recovery Indicators
Real GDP
Personal Income Less Transfer Payments
Industrial Production
Real Sales Value of Manufacturing, Wholesale & Retail Sector
Employment
Recessions’ Impact
% C
hang
e / R
eal G
DP
Series1
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
% Change / Employment
2007
1948
1957
1981
19531960
20011969
1990
1980
1973
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%-6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1%-7% 0%
Recessions’ Impact
% C
hang
e / R
eal G
DP
Series1
-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
% Change / Employment
2007
1948
1957
1981
19531960
20011969
1990
1980
1973
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
-6%
-7%-6% -5% -4% -3% -2% -1%-7% 0%
Real GDP Growth
Employment
Inflation
Long-term Interest Rates
Corporate Profits
Government Purchases
Consumption
Investment
Net Exports
Fiscal Policy
Monetary Policy
Real GDP & Payroll Employment2007-09 Recession and Recovery
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 2190
95
100
105
Index
Quarters
Real GDP
Payroll Employment
+3.2%
-2.1%
-4.7%-6.2%
’07 Q4’11 Q4
’08 Q1
10:1
10:2
10:3
10:4
11:1
11:2
11:3
11:4
12:1
12:2
12:3
12:4
13:1
13:2f
13.3f
13:4f
14:1f
14:2f
14:3f
14:4f
0
1
2
3
4
Real GDP
Yr/Yr % Change Annual % Change
2.4
1.8 2.02.2
2.7
Payroll Employment
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f-9,000
-6,000
-3,000
0
3,000
6,000
1,115
-3,617-5,052
1,0222,103 2,193 2,210 2,440
In Thousands
U.S.
'06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12-8
-4
0
4
Payroll Job Growth
Annual % Change
OC
U.S.
Change in Payroll EmploymentDec. 2011 to Dec. 2012
Orange County
SectorsConstructionFinancial ActivitiesEducational & Health ServicesLeisure & HospitalityProfessional & Business ServicesInformationManufacturingTrade, Transportation & UtilitiesGovernmentOther ServicesTotal Nonfarm
4,300
5,700
7,900
6,900
8,200
600
1,800
400
-1,000
-400
34,400
Change % Change
6.2
5.4
4.9
3.9
3.3
2.5
1.2
0.2
-0.7
-0.9
2.5
07:4
08:1
08:2
08:3
08:4
09:1
09:2
09:3
09:4
10:1
10:2
10:3
10:4
11:1
11:2
11:3
11:4
12:1
12:2
12:3
12:4
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,522
1,360
1,424
Payroll Employment Orange County
In Thousands
-162,000 jobs
+64,000 jobs
Not Seasonally Adjusted
07:4
08:1
08:2
08:3
08:4
09:1
09:2
09:3
09:4
10:1
10:2
10:3
10:4
11:1
11:2
11:3
11:4
12:1
12:2
12:3
12:4
120
140
160
180
146
155
168
Educational & Health ServicesOrange County
In Thousands of Jobs
+9,000 jobs+13,000 jobs
Not Seasonally Adjusted
07:4
08:1
08:2
08:3
08:4
09:1
09:2
09:3
09:4
10:1
10:2
10:3
10:4
11:1
11:2
11:3
11:4
12:1
12:2
12:3
12:4
130
160
190178
150
158
ManufacturingOrange County
In Thousands of Jobs
-28,000 jobs
+8,000 jobs
Not Seasonally Adjusted
07:4
08:1
08:2
08:3
08:4
09:1
09:2
09:3
09:4
10:1
10:2
10:3
10:4
11:1
11:2
11:3
11:4
12:1
12:2
12:3
12:4
40
80
120
100
6974
ConstructionOrange County
In Thousands of Jobs
-31,000 jobs
+5,000 jobs
Not Seasonally Adjusted
The Most Influential Economic Variables Affecting Job Outlook
Projected Impact
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real GDP
Real Exports
Construction Spending
-3.1%
-9.1%
-26.6%
+2.4% +1.8% +2.2%
+11.1% +6.7% +3.4%
-33.7% -4.9%
+10.7%
+2.0% +2.7%
The Most Influential Economic Variables Affecting Job Outlook
Projected Impact
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real GDP
Real Exports
Construction Spending
-3.1%
-9.1%
-26.6%
+2.4% +1.8% +2.2%
+11.1% +6.7% +3.4%
-33.7% -4.9%
+10.7%
+2.0%
+1.2%
+2.7%
+2.3%
The Most Influential Economic Variables Affecting Job Outlook
Projected Impact
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Real GDP
Real Exports
Construction Spending
-3.1%
-9.1%
-26.6%
+2.4% +1.8% +2.2%
+11.1% +6.7% +3.4%
-33.7% -4.9%
+10.7%
+2.0%
+1.2%
+15.4%
+2.7%
+2.3%
+17.6%
Job Growth
'09 '10 '11 '12 '13f '14f-12
-6
0
6
-7.4
-1.3
1.12.3 2.3 2.6
Annual % Change +32KJOBS
ORANGE COUNTY
+37KJOBS
+32KJOBS+15K
JOBS
Job Growth by Sector & Average Pay Per Worker
Above Average
Construction
Professional & Business Services
Education & Health Care Services
Leisure & Hospitality
Financial Services
Below Average
Retail Trade
Manufacturing
Information
State & Local Government
Federal Government
($61K)
($66K)
($54K)
($21K)
($98K)
($51K)
($67K)
($78K)
($53K)
($73K)
Orange County
Job Growth by Sector
F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y
Health Care Sector
Christopher de Rosa,President of Cigna- Western Region
F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y
22Confidential, unpublished property of Cigna. Do not duplicate or distribute. Use and distribution limited solely to authorized personnel. © 2012 Cigna
F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y
23Confidential, unpublished property of Cigna. Do not duplicate or distribute. Use and distribution limited solely to authorized personnel. © 2012 Cigna
F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y
24Confidential, unpublished property of Cigna. Do not duplicate or distribute. Use and distribution limited solely to authorized personnel. © 2012 Cigna
F O R I N T E R N A L U S E O N L Y
"Cigna" is a registered service mark and the "Tree of Life" logo and “GO YOU” are service marks of Cigna Intellectual Property, Inc., licensed for use by Cigna Corporation and its operating subsidiaries. All products and services are provided by such operating subsidiaries and not by Cigna Corporation. Such operating subsidiaries include Connecticut General Life Insurance Company, Cigna Health and Life Insurance Company, and HMO or service company subsidiaries of Cigna Health Corporation and Cigna Dental Health, Inc. All models are used for illustrative purposes only.
000000 00/12 © 2012 Cigna. Some content provided under license.
Chapman 50 Industry Job Growth Panel
Matthew JenusaitisPresident, OCTANeJuly 23, 2013
Where people and ideas come together with capital and resources to fuel Orange
County’s high technology ecosystem
Future Job Requirements
Science and Technology: 131,300 Jobs
2020
2020: 131,300Today: 111,900Requirement: 19,400
New Jobs Requirement
Science and Technology: 111,900 Jobs
2012
IT Sector Job Growth
Employment0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000
25,000
$0
$1
$2
$3
Payro
ll ($
Bill
ions)
Hardware
Software2002: 1,171 Companies
2011: 1,643 Companies
2002: 296 Companies
2011: 223 Companies
Life Science Sector Job Growth
Employment0 4,000 8,000 12,000
14,000
$0
$0.5
$1
$1.5
Payro
ll ($
Bill
ions)
Pharma/Biotech
Devices2002: 124 Companies
2011: 134 Companies
2002: 84 Companies
2002: 97 Companies
Where the Money Is ($MM)Orange County Investments in Q1 2013
Source: PWC Moneytree
LaunchPad 2010-2013 Economic Impact
Companies FundedCapital Raised
Since 2004CompaniesFunding
2010 2011
Jobs CreatedDirectIndirectMultiplierTotal Jobs
County Taxes GeneratedState Taxes Generated
11
$7.3MM
113
91
77
281
$1.5MM
$130,000
21
$15.9MM
193
143
156
492
$2.5MM
$372,000
$218MM
2012
27
$77MM
$325MM
314
404
333
1,033
$5.3MM
$783,000
2013*
9
$19MM
$382MM
171
Jobs Created by LaunchPad Companies
Direct and Indirect Job Creation
Note 1: Includes Bureau of Labor Statistics multiplier effect
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Goal: 10,000 Jobs by 2020
Thank You
Housing Sector
35
Richard Douglass,
Division President, Ryland Homes- Southern California
Observations as of July 2013
• Significant price appreciation in past 12-18 months.
• Premium locations gain premium pricing.
• There is Irvine and then there is the rest of the world.
• Media reports over-generalize- there are still areas of slow housing recovery.
• Quality labor in VERY short supply.
• Regulation will still inhibit growth.
• Next phases of land development will be more capital intensive
36
37
Orange County Permits
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,00019
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
13-0
520
13P
2014
P20
15P
Orange County MSA Building Permits
MF
SF
Source: Census Bureau and John Burns Real Estate Consulting
3838
San Diego Permits
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
-05
2013
P
2014
P
2015
P
San Diego MSA Building Permits
MF
SF
Source: Census Bureau and John Burns Real Estate Consulting
39
39
Riverside-SB Permits
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,0001
990
199
11
992
199
31
994
199
51
996
199
71
998
199
92
000
200
12
002
200
32
004
200
52
006
200
72
008
200
92
010
201
12
012
201
3-0
52
013
P2
014
P2
015
P
Riverside-SB MSA Building Permits
MF
SF
Source: Census Bureau and John Burns Real Estate Consulting
40
Los Angeles Permits
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,0001
990
199
11
992
199
31
994
199
51
996
199
71
998
199
92
000
200
12
002
200
32
004
200
52
006
200
72
008
200
92
010
201
12
012
201
3-0
52
013
P2
014
P2
015
P
Los Angeles MSA Building Permits
MF
SF
Source: Census Bureau and John Burns Real Estate Consulting
Construction EmploymentNumber of construction jobs pre-recession and post-recession:
Statewide•2006 – 933,700 peak•2010 – 559,800 bottom•2013 – 603,400 current
Orange County•2006 – 106,600 peak•2010 – 68,000 bottom•2013 – 72,100 current
Southern California•2006 – 412,100 peak•2011 – 227,600 bottom•2012 – 207,200
*No recent data from all SoCal counties (LA, Orange, Ventura). We can only speculate that
Riverside and San Bernardino have been consistent in employment. We can infer high numbers
from LA, Orange, and Ventura indicate this is a positive trend. 41
2013 Industry Panel: Job Growth... fact or fiction?
Thanks to sponsor Alex Hayden ’95CEO, Cushman and Wakefield and
Chair of Career and Industry Partnerships, Chapman50
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