2013 h-town day: bob harvey

Houston: The Next Great Global City

Bob HarveyPresident and CEO

Greater Houston Partnership

Greater Houston PartnershipHouston’s Leading Business Organization

Public PolicyEconomic Development

+International Trade and

Investment

Regional Consensus Builder

GHP Service AreaTen County Houston Region

A shallow recession for Houston

-3.3%

-4.2% -4.5% -4.6%-5.1% -5.2%

-5.7%-6.2% -6.5%

-7.4%-7.8% -7.8% -7.8%

-8.2%

-9.7%-10.2%

-11.2%

-12.4%-12.9% -13.2%

DC

Bost

on

Hou

ston

New

Yor

k

Dal

las

Phila

delp

hia

Balti

mor

e

St. L

ouis

Min

neap

olis

Chic

ago

San

Die

go

Seatt

le

Atla

nta

San

Fran

cisc

o

Los

Ang

eles

Mia

mi

Tam

pa

Rive

rsid

e

Phoe

nix

Hou

ston

'82-

'87

* Excludes Detroit

% Jobs Lost During Recession20 Largest U.S. Metro Areas*

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Jan '042/043/044/045/046/047/048/049/0410/0411/0412/04Jan '052/053/054/055/056/057/058/059/0510/0511/0512/05Jan '062/063/064/065/066/067/068/069/0610/0611/0612/06Jan '072/073/074/075/076/077/078/079/0710/0711/0712.07Jan '082/083/084/085/086/087/088/089/0810/0811/0812/08Jan '092/093/094/095/096/097/098/099/0910/0911/0912/09Jan '102/103/104/105/106/107/108/109/1010/1011/1012/10Jan '112/113/114/115/116/117/118/119/1110/1111/1112/11Jan '122/123/124/125/126/127/128/129/1210/1211/1212/12Jan '132/133/134/135/136/137/138/139/1310/1311/1312/13Jan '142.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

Source: Texas Workforce Commission

Empl

oym

ent

(Mill

ions

)

Steady job growth

306,100 = jobs created since

recession botto

m

Total Nonfarm Payroll (Not Seasonally Adjusted)Houston Metro Area, '04 - '14

Outpacing the nation

39.1%

41.5%

45.5%

66.5%

70.8%

73.5%

97.5%

125.3%

143.8%

161.2%

203.9%

Los Angeles

Miami

Philadelphia

Chicago

San Francisco

Atlanta

New York

Boston

Washington

Dallas

Houston

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsSeasonally unadjusted

100%

Percent of jobs recovered through August ’13Houston vs. Top 10 Metros

Key Economic Indicators

'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '14150

200

250

300

350

400

Vehicle Sales (000s) 12-Month Total, Metro Houston

Source: TexAuto Facts Report by InfoNation

'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '1440

50

60

70

80

90

100

Home Sales (000s)12-Month Total, Metro Houston

Source: Houston Association of REALTORS®

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13*250

300

350

400

450

500

Sales Tax Collections ($ Millions) City of Houston, ’04 Constant Dollars

Source: Texas State Comptroller * Projected

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13*0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Value of Building Permits ($ Millions) Metro Houston

Source: City of Houston * Projected

Key Economic Indicators - Energy

'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '140

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

U.S. Rig Count Monthly Average

Source: Baker Hughes

'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '140

20

40

60

80

100

120

140160

Spot Price, West Texas IntermediateMonthly Average, $/BBL

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13*0

100200300400500600700800

Texas Crude Oil Production Barrels (000s)

Source: Texas Railroad Commission * Projected

'04 11/049/05 7/06 5/07 3/08 '09 11/099/10 7/11 5/12 3/13 '140

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Spot Price, Henry Hub Natural GasMonthly Average, $/BBL

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

Employment Trends

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14

Source: GHP calculations based on Texas Workforce Commission data

12-Month Growth Rate

Mining and Manufacturing Secondary Sectors

Metro Houston Employment (000s)

'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

-10.4

17.7

43.452.9 51.8 52.4

105.290.8

17.4

59.0

3.6

-3.2-11.4

37.5

89.2

105.8

88.8

19.5

-107.4

47.4

81.2

105.7

80.7 76.0

Aug

ust

'12

- Aug

ust

'13

GH

P Fo

reca

st fo

r '13

Average = 42.6

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Above average job growth

Houston: The Next Great Global City

• Education

• Transportation Infrastructure

• Quality of Life Issues

• Local Government Issues

• Healthcare Access and Affordability

• Economic Drivers Beyond Energy

• The New Face of Houston

Seven Emerging Themes

Houston: The Next Great Global City

Bob HarveyPresident and CEO

Greater Houston Partnership