2012 innovations conference march 4, 2012
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Designing an Effective Intervention System for At-risk Students:
A proactive, dynamic, and data-informed approach
2012 Innovations ConferenceMarch 4, 2012
Cheoleon Lee & Pamela Wallentiny
Who is in our audience?
1 2 3 4 5 6
17% 17% 17%17%17%17%1. Administrators2. Faculty3. Advisor4. Student services
staff5. Counselor6. Other
Does your campus have an early warning system in place?
1 2 3
33% 33%33%1. Yes2. No3. In progress
How do you identify at-risk students?
1 2 3 4
25% 25%25%25%1. Early alert system2. Academic policy3. All of the above4. None
Topics Background Review of Academic Standing Policy Connecting Campus Resources Analysis of At-Risk Group Data
Who are At Risk?Predictors of At-Risk Group
Outcomes AssessmentAdvising makes difference? Tutoring makes difference?
Summary and Discussion
Background• Need new academic standing policy (2007) Implemented (2009)• Research and best practices
Theories of Retention & Student Success Astin (1985): I-E-O Model & Theory of Involvement Pascarella (1985): General Model for Assessing Change Bean (1990): Psychological Model of Retention Tinto (1993): Theory of Student Departure
Retention is a function of how the student and the institution interact with one another.Identification : Early Alert Intervention : Student advising, counseling, & other student services
Seidman’s (1996) retention formula*R = E(Id) + (E + I + C)(Iv)
“Retention equals early identification & early, intensive, and continuous intervention.”
*Seidman, A. (1996, Spring). Retention Revisited: RET = E Id + (E + I + C)Iv. College and University, 71(4), 18-20.
FA09 Before After
Based on Term GPA < 2.0 Cum. GPA & Cum. Attempted Credits
Levels GoodProbation
Suspension
GoodWarning Probation
Suspension
Point of Intervention Suspension Warning
Academic Standing Policy Makeover
Satisfactory Academic Progress(Good Standing) under new policy
Cum GPA of at least 2.0 If a student’s Cum GPA is below 2.0, the standing is
determined by both attempted credits and Cum GPA:
Attempted Credits Minimum CUM GPA12 – 15 1.0016 – 30 1.5031 – 40 1.75
41 or greater 2.00
Students receive letter, followed up by phone call
Advising Process
Students receive letter Students receive letter
Warning
Students completes Self assessment
Required to meet with anAcademic Success
Coordinator
Recommendations made
Hold flag on record untilmeeting with Academic
Success Coordinator
Probation
If enrolled in more than 8 credits, then call placed by
Academic Advisor
Meet with Academic Advisor
Recommendations made
All classes dropped ifRegistered for > 8 credits
Suspension
First suspension, opportunity to file a written appeal
One semester suspension Or, appeal approved for
probation
Second suspension, noopportunity to file awritten appeal andrequired to serve
a one year suspension
Connecting Campus Resources• Academic & Transfer Advising• Counseling & Career Services• Disability Support Services• Financial Aid Services• Tutoring: Learning Assistance Center (LAC)• Step-Up• Peer Mentor Program• Silas Craft Collegians Program• Children’s Learning Center• Use of Technology
Designing an Effective Early Intervention System for At-risk Students
Study Historical Data
Identify Patterns & Predictors of At-risk
Perform Simulation with different Intervention Points
Pilot Study
Outcomes Assessment
Implement Intervention Programs:(Academic Standing Policy, Early Alert Program, Advising, Tutoring, Counseling)
At-Risk Group Trend Over TimeProportion of Warning formula applied cases
(First-time Full-time)
FA06 (N=189)
SP07 (N=20)
FA07 (N=217)
SP08 (N=24)
FA08 (N=201)
SP09 (N=27)
FA09 (N=207)
SP10 (N=12)
FA10 (N=235)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
18% 18%21% 21%
18% 17% 17%
10%
19%
“Fresh Load” of At-Risk Cases
Incl. (PT) 191 20 219 24 204 28 215 12 238
At-Risk Group Trend Over TimeProportion of Warning formula applied cases
(All Students)
FA06 (N=828)
SP07 (N=690)
FA07 (N=899)
SP08 (N=776)
FA08 (N=899)
SP09 (N=889)
FA09 (N=1026)
SP10 (N=1005)
FA10 (N=1188)
0%
10%
20%
12%10%
12%11% 11%
12% 12% 12% 12%
“Advising Work load/term : new + old cases (Base figure)”
FA09 Academic Standing
(N=8,778)
PROB
SUSP
*Unknown
DSTN
DEAN
WARN
GOODP
GOOD
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
.9
2.9
3.9
5.1
5.5
8.6
19.5
53.5
(All Students FALL 2009)
* Unknown: Mostly ‘N’ (audit) grades with missing or zero Term GPA
%
At -
Risk
Retention (% came back in SP2010)
by FA2009 Standing
SUSP (42/257)
WARN (412/759)
GOODP
GOOD
DSTN
PROB (61/76)
DEAN
Total
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
16%
54%
56%
75%
79%
80%
85%
69%
% Came back in SP2010
(N=6,022 : Enrolled in Both FA09 & SP10)
At-R
isk
Comparison of Formula
FA09 Standing(new policy)
FA09 Term GPA Below 2.0
FA09 Cum GPA Below 2.0
Warning Formula Applied Cases***
Unknown 49 166 12DEAN* 1DSTN** 9 5GOOD 1164 529 16
GOODP 511 487 6PROB 75 73SUSP 256 255 242WARN 688 751 672Total 2668 2273 1062
* DEAN: This student had 3.7 Term GPA, 1.85 Cum GPA, and 36 Cum Attempted Credits **DSTN status is based on Term GPA of 3.5 or higher (part-time)*** Strictly based on the formula. Slightly different from the final standing.
Good
Sta
ndin
gAt
Ris
k
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Who are at-risk?What are the predictors?
Comparison of “At-Risk” vs. “Good Standing” 8 Terms: FA06~SP10 (First-Time Full-Time)
First-Time Full-TimeFA06 thru SP10 (8 terms)
Formula based At-Risk (n=897)
Good Standing (n=4000)
% Male 60% 50%
% African American 32% 20%
Top 5 majors (no difference)
General Studies, Accounting/Bus. Adm., Undeclared, Nursing, Engineering
No Post Secondary degree 82% 80%
Academic Goal Associate deg/Transfer (43%/46%)
Associate deg/Transfer (43%/47%)
Personal Goal XFER to 4yr (68%) XFER to 4yr (65%)
Math Placement 78% Dev Ed 60% Dev Ed
Writing Placement 37% Dev Ed 31% Dev Ed
Reading Placement 33% Dev Ed 30% Dev Ed
Financial Aid Rcvd 25% 26%
10
12
18
6
Diff.
Predictors of being At-Risk Group among First-Time Full-time Students
(Multivariate Analysis)
Asian
Black
Hispanic
Other Race
Male
Math Dev Ed
Writing Dev Ed
Reading Dev Ed
Fin. Aid Rcvd
Age
FTFTAt Risk
(Warning)Whi
te: r
efer
ence
cat
egor
y N=4,791 FTFT students 8 terms (FA06-SP10)1.6***
1.8***
1.5*
2.2***
.97***
*** : sig at .001** : sig at .01* : sig at .05
Odds Ratio
Demographics WARN (n=759)
PROB (n=76)
SUSP (n=257)
Gender %Male (43%) 55% 66% 60%
Race
Asian (12%) 11% 22% 15%African Am. (25%) 34% 24% 27%Native Am. (0.6%) 1% 1% .3%Hispanic (5%) 7% 5% 6%White (51%) 40% 43% 44%Other (7%) 7% 4% 7%
Academic Load Full-Time (39%) 62% 24% 42%
Dev Ed Placement
Math 67% 67% 72%Writing 35% 38% 43%
Reading 30% 33% 35%
Characteristics of FA09 “At-Risk” Group(n=1,092)
-Cont.
Registration Status
Attending Another College/Institution
.3%
First-Time College (21%) 31%
Previous Postsecondary 6%
Re-admit 4% 7% 4%
Returning (64%) 59% 93% 96%
Advising
Self Assessment 42% 4%
Met Academic SupportFaculty
24%
Seen by Advising 21%
Met Advising Staff/Faculty 43%
Retention (Enrolled in SP2010)54% 80% 16%
Demographics WARN (n=759)
PROB (n=76)SUSP (n=257)
Characteristics of FA09 “At-Risk” Group -Cont. (n=1,092)
Analysis of Self-Assessment Data(318 of 759 Warning Cases)
Listening to Students’ Voices
Self Assessmenthttp://www.howardcc.edu/students/academic_support_services/retention_services/academic_warning_form.html
Analysis of FA09 Self-Assessment DataReasons for being unsuccessful
Communication/language Issues
Don't like school
Class too difficult
Transportation problems
Changed major one or more times
Helath problems
Other Explain further 2
Financial problems
Late for class three or more times
Uncertain about major/not sure about career goals
Other Explain further 1
High School study habits didnt work
Wait until last minute to do schoolwork
Absent from class three or more times
Pressure, stress, anxiety
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
2%
8%
10%
12%
12%
14%
14%
15%
18%
21%
23%
30%
43%44%
48%
(N=318)
Communication/language Issues
Dont like school
Transportation problems
Class too difficult
Changed major one or more times
Helath problems
Financial problems
Other Explain further 2
Late for class three or more times
Uncertain about major/not sure about career goals
Other Explain further 1
High School study habits didnt work
Absent from class three or more times
Wait until last minute to do schoolwork
Pressure, stress, anxiety
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
MaleFemale
Analysis of FA09 Self-Assessment DataReasons for being unsuccessful by Gender
(N=318)
Communication/language Issues
Dont like school
Transportation problems
Class too difficult
Changed major one or more times
Helath problems
Financial problems
Other Explain further 2
Late for class three or more times
Uncertain about major/not sure about career goals
Other Explain further 1
High School study habits didnt work
Absent from class three or more times
Wait until last minute to do schoolwork
Pressure, stress, anxiety
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
WhiteNon-White
Analysis of FA09 Self-Assessment DataReasons for being unsuccessful by Race
(N=313)
Outcomes Assessment
Does advising make difference?
Does tutoring make difference?
Does advising make difference? Retention Cum. GPA Change
Retention Analysis (Warning cases)Retention Self-Assessment
Yes No
FA09-SP10 100% 32%
FA09-FA10 63% 16%
FA10-SP11 87% 48%
Retention Met with Advisor
Yes No
FA09-SP10 100% 19%
FA09-FA10 61% 8%
FA10-SP11 86% 35%
Advi
sing
Mean Cum GPA Change(Warning cases)Mean Cum. GPA Change
Self-Assessment Sig
Yes No
FA09-SP10 +0.29 +0.17 sig
FA09-FA10 +0.52 +0.47 ns
FA10-SP11 +0.20 +0.17 ns
Mean Cum. GPA Change
Met with Advisor Sig
Yes No
FA09-SP10 +0.28 +0.09 Sig
FA09-FA10 +0.53 +0.32 ns
FA10-SP11 +0.21 +0.05 sig
Advi
sing
Advising Makes Difference!
• Higher Retention Rates• Bigger Cum. GPA improvements
Does tutoring make difference?
Retention Cum. GPA Change
Retention AnalysisRetention Overall (All 9,568 Students)
Tutoring (n=1,127)
No Tutoring(n=8,441)
FA10-to-SP11 78% 69%
FA10-to-FA11
Retention Warning Cases Only (n=774)
Tutoring (n=88)
No Tutoring(n=686)
FA10-to-SP11 72% 61%
FA10-to-FA11
Tuto
ring
Mean Cum GPA Change
Mean Cum. GPA Change
Tutoring (Warning Cases only) Sig
Yes (n=61)
No (n=414)
FA10-to-SP11 +0.05 +0.03 ns
FA10-to-FA11
Mean Cum. GPA Change
Tutoring (All Students enrolled in both FA10 & SP11)
Sig
Yes(n=868)
No (n=5,776)
FA10-to-SP11 +.013 +.007 ns
FA10-to-FA11
Tuto
ring
Tutoring doesn’t seem to be making difference yet.
It’s Your Turn…
Build your own intervention system for at-risk students.
1) Carefully remove all the pieces from your packet.
2) Design your system by placing the pieces on the template.
3) Draw arrows to connect the pieces to show the flow of the system.
Early Intervention System for “At-risk” Students
Early Alert
Academic Warning
Counseling
Advising
Tutoring
Academic Standing
“Retention equals early identification & early, intensive and continuous intervention.”
Asse
ssm
ent
Assessment
Asse
ssm
ent
Discussion & Suggestions
• Questions?• Observations?• Suggestions/Recommendations?• Ideas to share?• Policy Implications?
Contact Info.• Cheoleon Lee, Ph.D.
Associate Director of Institutional Research, PRODHoward Community College443-518-4289, CLee@howardcc.edu
• Pamela Wallentiny, M.Ed.Retention SpecialistHoward Community College443-518-4144, PWallentiny@howardcc.edu
Self Assessment Survey
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