2009 global climate: a tale of five timeseries global mean temperature el ni ñ o / southern...
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2009 global climate:A tale of five timeseries
• Global mean temperature
• El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• Annular modes north and south
Todd Mitchell, Climate Impacts Group February 2010
The decade 2000-09 was the warmest on record (0.54C).
• 2005 the warmest, followed by 1998• the 2000-09 decade is the warmest on record
• central - southeast Australia drought continues• tropics not typical warm ENSO signal• wet Mediterranean consistent with negative NAM, NAO
El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
• with respect to 1971-2000.• 1.04, 1.67, 1.83 °C in October, November and December, respectively• 0.46°C 2009-mean, October-November-December mean 1.48°C• 3 Atlantic hurricanes this year (fewer hurricanes during warm ENSOs)
• 1900-93 climatology• 2009 mean -0.6 standard deviations• NOAA coupled forecast model predicts positive PDO
(warm west coast SST anomalies) through the Spring
Northern annular mode
December 2009 largest negative value since at least 1950.
January throughDecember averages
• central - southeast Australia drought continues• tropics not typical warm ENSO signal• wet Mediterranean consistent with negative NAM, NAO
• Record warm Seattle July• Cool and wet in central and eastern U.S.• Modeling studies suggest this pattern was related to tropical SSTs
February-March-April temperatureforecast: Enhanced probability of warmer than normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest(classic ENSO pattern)
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