2008 tasmanian dairy conference grain market update october 2008 amy stokes – rural logic (aust)...

2008 Tasmanian Dairy Conference

Grain Market Update

October 2008Amy Stokes – Rural Logic (Aust) P/L

Burnie Tasmania

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

Outline

InternationalDomesticTasmaniaGrain Outlook 2008/09

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

International – World Wheat S & D

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

International – Wheat Futures

Feb 2008

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

International – Corn (Feed Grain)

June 2008

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

International - Canola/Soybeans – 2005-2008

July 08

Soybeans

Canola

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

US Stocks to Use/Prices 2004-2009

04/5 05/6 06/7 07/8 08/9 09/0

Wheat 21%$3.40

25%$3.42

20%$4.26

11%$7.25

24%$6.25

????

Corn 20%$2.06

17%$2.00

12%$3.04

12%$5.00

7%$6.00

7%$5.50

Soybean 9%$5.91

16%$5.66

19%$6.43

4%$11.00

4%$12.00

5%$12.50

Summary - Wheat recovering, but feedgrains and oilseeds still tight

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

Domestic Production – S & D

WA

NT

QLD

SA

NSW

VIC

TAS

TAS

Crop Forecast 2008/09

Wheat 20.8 MT

Barley 7.4 MT

Canola 1.3 MT

Wheat 6.2 MT

Wheat 1.7 MT

Wheat 1.6 MT

Wheat 3.1 MT

Wheat 7.8 MT

Source: NAB Oct 08

Track $ 285FOB $ 32Export $ 317

Track $ 288FOB $ 40Export $ 328

Track $ 288FOB $ 44Export $ 332

Track $ 290FOB $ 44Export $ 334

Track $ 300FOB $ 44Export $ 344

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

Domestic – Grain Prices del Melbourne

2002 & 2006 – local droughts

2007-8 –Export driven

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

Tasmania

Quality & Supply Freight & Fuel Levy DPIE – IR 30 & Charges TFES Scheme FCL vs Bulk Contracts – Spot vs Forward

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

Tasmania – Grain Pricing

Old Crop December 08 Wheat & Barley availability – limited Protein – Tight supply

New Crop January 09 + Wheat MelbourneA $ 335 / MT Barley Melbourne A $ 280 / MT

2008 Tasmanian Dairy ConferenceBurnie Tasmania

Good Luck – Any Questions?