18 april 2007 | twod@umich.edu 1 u. michigan-u. algiers faculty exchange report on april 2005 visit...

18 April 2007 | twod@umich.edu 1

U. Michigan-U. Algiers Faculty Exchange

Report on April 2005 Visit &

Ongoing Research

Tom O’Donnell

CMENAS end-of-term celebration April 2007

• Sponsorship• “The professors”• Memorial for

M. Bennoune• Lectures at U.

Algiers • Impressions:

– attitudes to civil war

– condition of women

– economic development

– democracy & press

– hydrocarbon sector

– languages & multi-cultural society

• Results– Research– future work

• Pictures & music

M. Habidi, T. O’D., A. Bedida, A. Tablit- At the site of initial French invasion -

• Sponsorship• ‘The professors’• Memorial for M.

Bennoune• Lectures at U.

A. Raad, A. Bedida, T.O’D., Lal AliLecture Hall, Faculty of Islamic Studies

• Sponsorship• ‘The professors’• Memorial for

Three lectures at Faculty of Economics and Management Sciences

Held in Faculty of Islamic Sciences

The globalized oil systemand

the new U.S. policy

Thomas W. O’DonnellThe University of Michigan

Science, Technology and Society Program, Michigan Center for Theoretical PhysicsResidential College Social Science Program

5twod@umich.edu, http://www.umich.edu/~twod/courses

Thomas W. O'DonnellThe University of Michigan

Ann Arbor, U.S.A.

Case study:The European Union’s

growing addictionto automobiles and trucks

&dependence on US global oil policy

Historical overview

The Information Age:

A 3rd revolution in capitalist production as basis of

“globalization” and “post-modern” society

Thomas W. O’DonnellThe University of Michigan

Ann Arbor, U.S.A.

Science, Technology and Society Program, Michigan Center for Theoretical PhysicsResidential College Social Science Program

Center for Middle East and North African Studies

Memorial Symposium for Prof. Mahfoud BENNOUNE2 May 2005

Academics, Media, FLN,

Military cadets,

Former ministers,

……

Memorial Symposium for Prof. Mahfoud BENNOUNE

2 May 2005• Sponsorship• “The professors”• Memorial for

• Pictures & musicFamily:- Cousins Karima & Dorothy

• Pictures & music• Results

– Research– future work

→ Constant topic of discussion; myriad interpretations

→ New law; many woman discussed; but content not announced yet

→ How to spend surplus (from oil price) debated; desire for opinions

→ Free; but not free … trepidation of unrest after civil war

→ New law April 2005; but content was not yet announced (see below)

→ Opinions on use of French & of English; relationship of Arabic vs. Berber

• OUTCOMES of my visit:• Many talks/articles on either Algeria or, esp. oil order generally• Use material in courses on “Global Oil and Middle East”, …

• Awarded Fulbright Scholar Award•To study Venezuelan vs. Algerian models in

hydrocarbon sector (‘new nationalism’ vs. liberalization)

•International Society: IAEE / USAEE; esp. discussions of

• U.S.-Iran policy -- nuclear trumped by oil

• Venezuela vs. Algeria contrast• internal oil policies; external relations

• U.S. vs. E.U. energy policies & geo-strategy

•Environmental carbon-capture projects

• Algerian natural gas-CO2 separation & sequestration

General Theory of Globalized Oil Order

Algerian visit relation to my general research- Goal:

A consistent theory from political-economic basis … to international affairs (geo-strategy) & domestic policies

- Major issues:~ Economic control (governance) of oil order:

• How changed with each period of capitalist development• Late-Colonial & Post-War (concessions)• OPEC Revolution (transitional, N-S antagonism)• Globalized (rise of collusion / incorporation / liberalization)

• Driven by competition produces market volatility, when:• Superabundance of oil resources• New competitors can entry

~ META system of political hegemony • Requires, is consistent with, economic control of oil sector

• Globalized era: U.S. MENA hegemony not end-in-itself

~ Analysis of specific relations / crises (esp. w/ U.S.):• Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, S. Arabia, …• Internal liberalization vs. ‘new nationalism’

Compare: Algeria, Venezuela, Kuwait, …

Algerian hydrocarbon sector

Oil will remain world’s #1 source of energy

• Pictures & music Note growth of foreign oil companies’ percentage

New Hydrocarbon Law (second law)– ‘Poster-case’ of (neo-)liberalization

- 1986 – time of price collapse

Key: Production Sharing Agreements (PSA)

- 2005 – “So different may lead to an actual revolution in

petroleum industry in Algeria” (paraphrasing legal consultants)

Extreme liberalization (like PDVSA plan Chavez ended)

– NOC (Sonatrach) ‘liberated’ from state– New ministerial agencies: licenses & tax/rents – IOCs no real restrictions inside country–Raises class questions (like Venezuela)

…other states? Lybia, Mexico, Kuwait, Azerbaijan, Russia, …3rd Phase

- Example: Bernard Mommer’s Theory (Oxford & PDVSA)

Ownership

Administration

Private Public

Proprietorial

Colonial

(concessions, IOCs, Great

Cartel)

OPEC Revolution

(nationalization, NOCs, IEA, spot

and futures market)

Non-proprietorial

Globalized

(NOC-Ministry splits, service

contracts, PSAs, joint ventures; IEF,

“producer-consumer

dialogue”, IEF)

General Theory of Globalized Oil Order

NOC FOC NOC FOC NOC FOC NOC FOC

Mineral Ownership

• None • Development rights and mineral ownership

• All minerals are soveriegn within the state

• No ownership; however, FOC can book their "share" of production as part of their company's assets

• All minerals are soveriegn within the state

• No ownership

Contract Life

Revenue Flows

•Royalty payments based on production levels

• Income from sale of minerals based on world market prices

• Royalties based on production levels; Tax on FOC's "profit oil"; possible one-time Signature Bonus; possible one-time Discovery Bonus; possible reoccurring Production Bonuses; sale of NOC "profit oil"

• Pre-determined level of cost-recovery or "cost oil" which is tax deductible; "Profit oil" which is tax liable

• sale of NOC oil presumably made possible through completion of the service provided by the FOC

• recieves a pre-determined fixed rate of return based upon amount of investment

• Royalties, taxes, sale of "profit oil'; share of total project profitability via equity stake or contractual stipulations

• share of total project profitability via equity stake or contractual stipulations

Revenue Medium

• Cash • In-kind transformed into cash from market sales

• In-kind or cash; if cash, a critical question becomes identifying a pre-sale price of the mineral.

• Income from sale of minerals based on world market prices

• generally cash; possibly in-kind

• cash, stock • cash, stock

Production Requirements

• NA • None • NA • As dictated by contract clauses

• NA • successful completion of contracted service

Risk Liability/Reward

• No risk; Reward is a function of production levels and price

• Bears entire risk; Recieves all reward minus royalty payments

• Exploration risk; share in reward

• share in reward • bears all risk; recieves all rewards minus remuneration to the FOC

• no risk; recieves investment costs plus a fixed rate of return

Operational Control

• None • Total

Examples • 1973, Occidental and Libya

• shared ownership through shared equity (joint stock company) or contractual stipulations (joint operating agreement)

• post discovery, contract life is a function of the commercial life of the field

• 1933, Saudi Arabia [ Ibn Saud and Socal

• Modern Concessions: 1967 Oman; 1974 Abu Dhabi

• FOC has operational control though project planning is subject to NOC approval. NOC may demand that FOC personnel carry an NOC counterpart for learning purposes

• Joint operational control• Most PSAs give the NOC an option to participate in the operations of the venture. Participation rates vary from 5%-50%; however 15%-25% are common clauses. NOC considerations include point of entry, kind of participation and cost sharing

• 1950's, PEMEX and YPF; 1960's, Iraq and Iran

• 1960's, Indonesia

Production Sharing Agreement (PSA/PSC) Joint VentureConcession Technical Service Agreement (TSA)

• contractual stipulation

• share in risk and reward

• Relative to concessions, PSAs have generally shorter contract periods

• Longest contract life; wide range including 75 yrs.

• generally, TSAs have the shortest contract life out of the four

Following slides are taken from other talks about my Algiers visit – T.O’D.Following slides are taken from other talks about my Algiers visit – T.O’D.

Le Alger depuis l’année 1945 – Une vue en bref (et très amateur)

de une luttehéroïque, horrifique et continuel

U. Michigan NWAEG

8 Dec 2005

Tom O’Donnell

University of Michigan

Universite d’Alger Mai 2005

Algier

• Algiers: Old town is based around a 16th century Turkish citadel

• Founded by Phoenicians

• Became French colonial capital in 1830

• Population (metro): 2.1 million

Le Alger – 1945-2005

Algerian Revolution Echoes in French Violence, by Sylvia Poggioli. Audio hereWeekend Edition - Sunday, December 4, 2005

Topics - Historical

• 1945-1961: Popular revolution against the French settler regime

• 1961-1988: Post-revolution social, political and economic struggles

• 1988-1999: Civil War, Islamic Fundamentalism and Jihadis

• Post-Civil War social, political and economic struggles

History

A chronology of key events:

• 1962 - Algeria gains independence from France.

– Some 250,000 were killed in eight-year independence war

• 1954: National Liberation Front launches revolt against French rule

• 1962: Referendum in France backs independence accord

• 3 July 1962: Algeria becomes independent

• 1963 - Ahmed Ben Bella elected as first president.

• 1965 - Col Houari Boumedienne overthrows Ben Bella, pledges to end corruption.

• 1976 - Boumedienne introduces a new constitution which confirms commitment to socialism and role of the National Liberation Front (FLN) as the sole political party. Islam is recognised as state religion

• 1976 December - Boumedienne is elected president and is instrumental in launching a programme of rapid industrialisation.

• 1978 - Boumedienne dies and is replaced by Col Chadli Bendjedid, as the compromise candidate of the military establishment.

• 1986 - Rising inflation and unemployment, exacerbated by the collapse of oil and gas prices lead to a wave of strikes and violent demonstrations.

HistoryBan on parties lifted

• 1988 - Serious rioting against economic conditions.

• Ahmed Ben Bella: overthrown after two years in office

– 1954: Led newly-formed National Liberation Front

– 1957-62: Interned in France– 1962-3: Became Algeria's first premier, then

president– 1965: Ousted in military coup; detained until

• 1989 - The National People's Assembly revokes the ban on new political parties and adopts a new electoral law allowing opposition parties to contest future elections.

• 1989 - Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) founded and over 20 new parties licensed.

• 1990 - The FIS wins 55 per cent of the vote in local elections.

• 1991 - Government announces parliamentary elections in June 1991 and

– plans changes to electoral system including restrictions on campaigning in mosques.

– FIS reacts by calling general strike. • State of siege declared, elections

postponed.– FIS leaders Abassi Madani and Ali Belhadj

arrested and jailed.

• 1991 December - In the first round of general elections the FIS wins 188 seats outright, and seems virtually certain to obtain an absolute majority in the second round.

History*Military takes over

• 1992 4 January - The National People's Assembly is dissolved by presidential decree and

– on 11 January President Chadli, apparently under pressure from the military leadership, resigns.

– A five-member Higher State Council, chaired by Mohamed Boudiaf, takes over.

• Street gatherings banned, violent clashes break out on 8 and 9 February between FIS supporters and security forces.

– A state of emergency is declared, the FIS is ordered to disband and all 411 FIS-controlled local and regional authorities are dissolved.

Boudiaf assassinated

• 1992 29 June - Boudiaf assassinated by a member of his bodyguard with alleged Islamist links.

– Violence increases and the Armed Islamic Group (GIA) emerges as the main group behind these operations.

• 1994 - Liamine Zeroual, a retired army colonel, is appointed chairman of the Higher State Council.

• 1995 - Zeroual wins a five-year term as president of the republic with a comfortable majority.

• 1996 - Proposed constitutional changes approved in a referendum by over 85 per cent of voters.

• 1997 - Parliamentary elections won by the newly-created Democratic National Rally, followed by the moderate Islamic party, Movement of Society for Peace.

* Reference: BBC NEWS:http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/1/hi/world/middle_east/country_profiles/811140.stmPublished: 2005/09/29 13:51:19 GMT BBC MMV

HistoryMilitants ignore concord

• 1998 - President Zeroual announces his intention to cut short his term and hold early presidential elections.

• 1999 - Former foreign minister Abdelaziz Bouteflika elected as president after all opposition candidates withdraw from race, saying they had received inadequate guarantees of fair and transparent elections.

– "Dirty war" was sparked by dissolution of assembly in 1992. Rights groups say up to 150,000 people were killed

– Official report says security forces responsible for 6,000 civilian disappearances

• 1999 - Referendum approves Bouteflika's law on civil concord, the result of long and largely secret negotiations with the armed wing of the FIS, the Islamic Salvation Army (AIS).

– Thousands of members of the AIS and other armed groups are pardoned.

• 2000 - Attacks on civilians and security forces continue, and are thought to be the work of small groups still opposed to the civil concord.

– Violence is estimated to have claimed over 100,000 lives in Algeria since 1992.

• 2001 April/May - Scores of demonstrators are killed in violent clashes between security forces and Berber protestors

– in the mainly Berber region of Kabylie following the death of a teenager in police custody.

• 2001 May - The mainly Berber party, the Rally for Culture and Democracy, withdraws from the government in protest against the authorities' handling of riots in Kabylie.

HistoryBerber concessions

• 2001 October - Government agrees to give the Berber language official status, as part of a package of concessions.

• 2001 November - Several hundred people are killed as the worst floods in living memory hit Algiers.

• 2002 March - President Bouteflika announces that the Berber language, Tamazight, is to be recognised as a national language.

History Berber demands for greater rights have sparked

unrest

• 2002 June - Prime Minister Ali Benflis's National Liberation Front (FLN) wins general elections marred by violence and a low turnout.

– They are boycotted as a sham by four parties - two of which represent Berbers.

• 2003 21 May - More than 2,000 people are killed and thousands are injured by a powerful earthquake in the north. The worst-hit areas are east of Algiers.

• 2003 June - Leader of the outlawed Islamic Salvation Front (FIS) Abassi Madani and his deputy Ali Belhadj are freed after serving 12-year sentences.

• 2004 April - President Bouteflika is re-elected to a second term following a landslide poll victory..

• 2005 January - Authorities announce the arrest of rebel Armed Islamic Group (GIA) head Nourredine Boudiafi and the killing of his deputy

– and declare the group to be virtually dismantled.

• Government makes deal with Berber leaders, promising more investment in Kabylie region and greater recognition for Tamazight language.

• 2005 March - Government-commissioned report says security forces were responsible for the disappearances of more than 6,000 citizens during the 1990s civil conflict.

• 2005 September - Reconciliation referendum: Voters back government plans to grant an amnesty to many of those involved in post-1992 killings

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